天津市经营性房地产用地供应量预测研究

发布时间：2018-07-13 08:05

【摘要】：土地供应计划是科学系统利用土地资源的基础,建立长期有效的土地供给体系,才能实现房地产市场的长期稳定和繁荣。而土地供应量的预测是土地供应计划的技术支撑,只有科学合理地预测土地供应量,才能使制定的土地供应计划切实有效地调节房地产市场,维持房地产市场长期稳定发展。本文借鉴国内外相关研究方法,在全面分析天津市房地产市场的运行状况的基础上,系统地梳理了“十一五”期间天津市土地供应、商品房交易以及主要的社会经济指标的统计数据,应用统计分析模型、BP神经网络模型对天津市“十二五”期间逐年土地供应量进行了预测。本文首先界定了经营性房地产用地需求与供给预测的基本思路和在预测时应遵循的原则。然后,根据易获取可量化的原则分别建立影响住宅和商业房地产需求量、供给量的因子体系,并采用灰色关联度模型筛选出对因变量影响较大的关键因子：基于回归模型理论,利用matlab软件的曲线拟合工具对遴选出的关键因子做非线性回归拟合,得到单因子在“十二五期间”逐年的预测值,为住宅和商业房地产BP神经网络主模型预测打下基础。本文采用具有三层结构的BP神经网络模型对住宅和商业房地产需求量、供给量进行预测：将“十一五”期间住宅和商业房地产的数据输入到网络分别进行训练学习,根据网络性能误差确定合适的中间层神经元数目；然后,将回归拟合得到的“十二五”期间住宅和商业房地产数据输入到训练好的网络,得到住宅和商业房地产需求量、供给量预测值。住宅和商业房地产用地预测值可由住宅和商业房地产需求量、供给量与平均容积率通过运算得到。平均容积率可由天津市“十一五”期间中心城区、滨海新区和郊区县容积率的平均值及各区域“十二五”期间经营性房地产用地的比例,综合得到；再由住宅和商业房地产需求量、供给量预测值通过容积率就可得到住宅和商业房地产用地量的预测值。为确保得到的住宅和商业房地产用地预测值更加合理,更加具有指导性意义,本文根据天津市“十一五”期间住宅和商业房地产的累计竣工销售状况,按照系统科学总量平衡的原则进行去存量修正,以使未来住宅和商业房地产市场土地供需平衡。最后,给出对天津市“十二五”期间住宅和商业房地产土地供应计划的建议。
[Abstract]:Land supply plan is the basis of scientific system to utilize land resources and establish a long-term effective land supply system to realize the long-term stability and prosperity of the real estate market. The forecast of land supply is the technical support of land supply plan. Only scientific and reasonable prediction of land supply can make the land supply plan regulate the real estate market effectively and maintain the long-term stable development of the real estate market. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the operation of the real estate market in Tianjin, this paper systematically combs the land supply in Tianjin during the 11th Five-Year Plan period by referring to the relevant research methods at home and abroad. Based on the statistical data of commercial housing transaction and main social and economic indicators, the statistical analysis model and BP neural network model are used to predict the land supply year by year in Tianjin during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. This paper first defines the basic ideas and principles to be followed in forecasting the demand and supply of commercial real estate land. Then, according to the principle of easy to obtain and quantifiable, the factor system of influencing the demand and supply of residential and commercial real estate is established, and the key factors which have great influence on dependent variables are screened out by using the grey relational degree model: based on regression model theory. By using the curve fitting tool of matlab software, the selected key factors are fitted by nonlinear regression, and the predicted value of single factor is obtained year by year during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, which lays the foundation for BP neural network main model prediction of residential and commercial real estate. In this paper, the BP neural network model with three-layer structure is used to predict the demand and supply of residential and commercial real estate. The data of residential and commercial real estate during the 11th Five-Year Plan period are input to the network for training and learning. Determine the appropriate number of interlayer neurons according to the network performance error; then, input the regression fitting data of residential and commercial real estate into the trained network, and get the demand for residential and commercial real estate. Supply quantity forecast value. The predicted value of residential and commercial real estate land can be obtained by calculation of demand, supply and average volume ratio of residential and commercial real estate. The average volume rate can be obtained from the average volume rate of the central urban area, Binhai New area and suburban counties during the 11th Five-Year Plan period of Tianjin and the proportion of commercial real estate land in each region during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. According to the demand of residential and commercial real estate, the forecast value of supply quantity can be obtained through the volume ratio of residential and commercial real estate. In order to ensure that the forecasted values of residential and commercial real estate land are more reasonable and more instructive, this paper, according to the cumulative sales situation of residential and commercial real estate in Tianjin during the 11th Five-Year Plan period, In order to balance land supply and demand in future residential and commercial real estate market, destocking correction is carried out according to the principle of systematic scientific aggregate balance. Finally, the suggestions on the land supply plan of residential and commercial real estate in Tianjin during the 12th five-year plan are given.
【学位授予单位】：天津师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

【参考文献】