我国房地产与新型城镇化互动发展的路径研究

发布时间：2018-07-17 04:37

【摘要】：城镇化是人类文明进程的大趋势,也是现阶段我国经济增长与社会发展的内生动力。2012年,我国城镇化率已经达到52.6%,我国正处于城镇化的快速发展阶段。随着城镇化进程的快速推进,居民对房地产的需求不断增加,房地产价格快速上涨。房地产价格的居高不下已经成为居民生活的严重负担,并开始阻碍城镇化的健康持续发展。针对我国城镇化过程中浮现出的矛盾与问题,中央适时提出转变城市发展方式,推进“新型城镇化”。相较于传统的城镇化,新型城镇化有着截然不同的发展路径与发展模式,对产业发展也提出了不同的要求。对房地产的发展而言,新型城镇化既为房地产业带来了巨大的发展空间,也对房地产业提出了更高的发展要求。因此,研究我国房地产与新型城镇化的互动关系以及两者协调发展的路径具有非常重要的现实意义。本文在国内外学者现有的研究成果基础上,通过对房地产与城镇化相关理论的梳理以及对我国目前房地产与城镇化现状及问题的分析,从理论方面探讨了城镇化与房地产的互动发展机制,并从实证研究的角度,首先运用Granger因果检验方法对我国城镇化水平与房地产投资、房地产需求进行了因果关系检验,实证结果表明,城镇化水平与房地产投资额相互促进,互为因果关系,而城镇化水平与商品房销售面积存在着单向因果关系；之后,本文运用主成分分析以及通径分析的方法,对城镇化与房地产之间主要影响因子做细致的剖析,实证结果显示,衡量城镇化水平的城镇固定资产投资以及城镇居民人均可支配收入是推动房地产发展的最主要影响因子,而房地产发展中开发投资额与房地产施工面积等指标都对城镇化发展起到了积极作用。最后,基于之前的研究以及新型城镇化对产业发展的要求,本文提出了我国房地产业在新型城镇化背景下的发展路径以及促进两者互动发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is not only the main trend of human civilization, but also the endogenous power of economic growth and social development. In 2012, China's urbanization rate has reached 52.6, and China is in the rapid development stage of urbanization. With the rapid progress of urbanization, residents' demand for real estate is increasing, and real estate prices are rising rapidly. The high price of real estate has become a serious burden to residents, and has begun to hinder the healthy and sustainable development of urbanization. In view of the contradictions and problems emerging in the process of urbanization in China, the central government proposed to change the mode of urban development and promote "new urbanization". Compared with the traditional urbanization, the new urbanization has different development paths and development models, and puts forward different requirements for industrial development. For the development of real estate, new urbanization not only brings great development space for real estate industry, but also puts forward higher development requirements for real estate industry. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the interactive relationship between real estate and new urbanization and the path of their coordinated development. Based on the existing research results of scholars at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the current situation and problems of real estate and urbanization in China by combing the relevant theories of real estate and urbanization. This paper discusses the interactive development mechanism of urbanization and real estate in theory, and from the perspective of empirical research, uses Granger causality test method to test the causality between urbanization level and real estate investment and real estate demand in China. The empirical results show that the urbanization level and the real estate investment promote each other, and the urbanization level has a one-way causal relationship with the commercial housing sales area. Then, this paper uses the principal component analysis and path analysis method. This paper makes a detailed analysis of the main influencing factors between urbanization and real estate. The empirical results show that the investment in fixed assets of cities and towns and the per capita disposable income of urban residents are the most important factors to promote the development of real estate. The development of real estate investment and real estate construction area and other indicators have played a positive role in the development of urbanization. Finally, based on the previous research and the requirements of new urbanization to the industrial development, this paper puts forward the development path of the real estate industry under the new urbanization background and the policy recommendations to promote the interactive development of the two.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.2

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