房地产多目标决策模糊综合优选模型的研究

发布时间：2018-07-20 16:59

【摘要】：本文针对房地产投资决策进行全面分析和研究,主要包含成本管理控制体系、功能评价体系和房地产评价指标体系的建立等。依据模糊数学、价值工程等理论建立相关的房地产决策优选模型。首先,大致了解房地产投资决策概况,对目前国内外房企投资决策发展状况进行了分析,针对房地产投资决策主要影响因素做出初步判断、分析。提取影响房地产投资决策主要影响因素如成本控制指标体系、功能评价指标体系,为后期决策分析做好准备。其次,分析传统决策评价方法和现代决策评价方法现状及存在问题,并比较说明传统方法的局限性,误差性等缺点。根据房地产投资决策特点,运用模糊数学、层次分析法、模糊相对排序法等,建立新型多目标决策模糊综合优选评判模型。在模型优选时,需要对给出的影响因素指标进行划分抉择,保证指标分析结果能够真实反映现实状况,使方案模型更具说服力、更加可靠、科学。接着,对比新型研究出的多目标决策模糊评判模型与现今常用模型模糊综合评判模型。新型的研究模型不仅计算方便,更主要的是它多考虑两个参数,能够克服现今常用模型趋于平均化的弱点,不易产生结果判定困难的现象。引入价值工程,从价值工程角度来分析功能评价体系与成本评价体系之间是否达到最优比,实现项目经济效益、社会效益最佳。同时说明新型模型决策的正确性,进而对优选出的方案进行限额成本优化。最后,根据一个大型房地产项目实例来说明该新型评判模型的可靠性和适用性。同时,根据多目标决策模糊评判优选模型,来制作房地产投资优选决策软件,绘出相应系统流程图,促进房地产前期决策流程更加科学化、智能化。多目标决策模糊评判模型主要是将经验方法、意见等具有模糊性质的定性指标通过科学理论定量化,使结果更合理、更可靠。这种方法能够科学的对多种影响因素做出分析判断,处理不确定性、模糊性。该模型擅长解决大型房地产项目的决策分析工作,可作为今后房地产项目投资判定的依据。
[Abstract]:This paper makes a comprehensive analysis and research on the real estate investment decision, mainly including the cost management and control system, the function evaluation system and the establishment of the real estate evaluation index system and so on. According to the theory of fuzzy mathematics and value engineering, the optimal model of real estate decision is established. First of all, the general situation of real estate investment decision-making is understood, and the development of investment decisions of domestic and foreign housing enterprises is analyzed, and the primary judgment and analysis are made on the main influencing factors of real estate investment decisions. The main influencing factors of real estate investment decision such as cost control index system and function evaluation index system are extracted to prepare for the later decision analysis. Secondly, the present situation and existing problems of traditional decision evaluation method and modern decision evaluation method are analyzed, and the limitation and error of traditional method are compared. According to the characteristics of real estate investment decision, a new model of fuzzy comprehensive optimal selection and evaluation for multi-objective decision making is established by using fuzzy mathematics, analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy relative ranking method. In the optimal selection of the model, it is necessary to divide and choose the factors given to ensure that the results of the index analysis can truly reflect the actual situation and make the model more convincing, reliable and scientific. Then, the fuzzy evaluation model of multi-objective decision is compared with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. The new research model is not only convenient for calculation, but also takes two parameters into account. It can overcome the weakness of the common models which tend to be average, and it is not easy to produce the phenomenon that the results are difficult to judge. This paper introduces value engineering to analyze whether the optimal ratio between the function evaluation system and the cost evaluation system is reached from the value engineering point of view to realize the economic benefit of the project and the best social benefit. At the same time, the correctness of the new model decision is explained, and the optimal scheme is optimized. Finally, the reliability and applicability of the new model are illustrated by an example of a large real estate project. At the same time, according to the fuzzy evaluation model of multi-objective decision, the software of real estate investment optimal selection is made, and the corresponding system flow chart is drawn, which promotes the decision-making process of the early stage of real estate to be more scientific and intelligent. The fuzzy evaluation model of multi-objective decision making mainly quantifies the qualitative index with fuzzy property such as experience method and opinion through scientific theory to make the result more reasonable and reliable. This method can scientifically analyze and judge the influence factors and deal with uncertainty and fuzziness. The model is good at solving the decision analysis of large real estate projects and can be used as the basis for judging the investment of real estate projects in the future.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

【相似文献】