房地产市场健康指数模型构建及应用研究

发布时间：2018-07-21 18:26

【摘要】：房地产业作为经济系统的一部分,其发展能够直接或间接地影响国民经济和关联产业的发展。健康发展的房地产市场,不仅对国家金融安全具有重要影响,也对国民经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。健康的房地产市场,其发展应与经济社会发展相协调、与其所处自然环境相协调、与其所在城市的整体发展水平相协调,满足人口增长的需要等。本研究以评价房地产市场秩序、资源配置效率和市场规模为基础,构建了房地产市场健康指数模型。本论文首先运用比较分析法对全国以及31个省、市、自治区的房地产市场秩序进行了评价,发现我国房地产市场在与经济社会发展的协调性和自身的均衡程度上均有待提升,房地产投资占GDP的比重过大和商品房施工面积与商品房竣工面积之比过高,是导致我国房地产市场秩序状况欠佳的主要原因。其次,运用数据包络分析(DEA)法对全国以及31个省、市、自治区的房地产市场资源配置效率进行了评价。评价结果显示,我国房地产市场的资源配置效率有进一步提升的空间,东部地区房地产市场资源配置效率优于中、西部地区房地产市场资源配置效率,高于我国整体水平；西部地区房地产市场资源配置效率是最低的；投入过剩是造成我国房地产市场资源配置效率没能达到最优的主要原因。然后,运用线性回归分析法,选取房地产市场规模的代理变量作为因变量,选取房地产市场规模的重要影响因素作为自变量,以全国和31个省、市、自治区的数据为基础,拟合出各个地区的商品房理论销售额,然后将商品房实际销售额与理论销售额进行比较,计算出偏差程度,评价房地产市场规模的合理程度。评价结果显示,我国房地产市场的实际规模与合理规模之间的偏差较大,市场规模的合理程度有待提升,西部地区房地产市场规模的合理度最低。未来能够提供给房地产开发的土地面积逐渐减少是造成我国房地产市场规模合理程度偏低的主要原因。最后,在对房地产市场秩序、资源配置效率和规模合理度进行了评价分析的基础上,采用欧氏距离指标法构建房地产市场健康指数模型,对我国房地产市场健康状况进行综合评价。评价结果显示,我国房地产市场健康状况有待改善,东部地区房地产市场秩序状况不佳；西部地区房地产市场资源配置效率低、市场规模不合理；市场规模合理度偏低是造成我国房地产市场健康状况欠佳的主要原因。政府应制定相应政策,调整市场环境,控制房地产投资,加强对城市土地节约利用的管理,从而进一步规范房地产市场秩序、提升房地产市场资源配置效率、优化房地产市场规模,推动房地产市场健康发展。
[Abstract]:As a part of economic system, the development of real estate industry can directly or indirectly affect the development of national economy and related industries. The healthy development of the real estate market not only has an important impact on the national financial security, but also has an important significance for the sustainable development of the national economy. The development of healthy real estate market should be coordinated with the economic and social development, with the natural environment, with the overall development level of the city, and to meet the needs of population growth. Based on the evaluation of real estate market order, resource allocation efficiency and market scale, a real estate market health index model is constructed. This paper first uses the comparative analysis method to evaluate the real estate market order of the whole country and 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions. It is found that the coordination of the real estate market with the economic and social development and the degree of its own equilibrium need to be improved. The large proportion of real estate investment in GDP and the high ratio of the construction area of commercial housing to the completed area of commercial housing are the main reasons leading to the poor order of the real estate market in our country. Secondly, the data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method is used to evaluate the resource allocation efficiency of the real estate market in the whole country and 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions. The evaluation results show that there is room for further improvement in the resource allocation efficiency of the real estate market in our country. The allocation efficiency of the real estate market in the east is better than that in the middle, and the allocation efficiency of the real estate market in the west is higher than the whole level of our country. The allocation efficiency of real estate resources in the western region is the lowest, and the overinvestment is the main reason for the failure to achieve the optimal allocation efficiency in China's real estate market. Then, by using linear regression analysis, the agent variables of real estate market scale are selected as dependent variables, and the important influencing factors of real estate market scale are selected as independent variables, based on the data of the whole country and 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions. The theoretical sales of commercial housing in various regions are fitted, then the actual sales of commercial housing are compared with the theoretical sales, the deviation degree is calculated, and the reasonable degree of real estate market scale is evaluated. The evaluation results show that the deviation between the real and reasonable scale of the real estate market in China is large, the reasonable degree of the market scale needs to be improved, and the reasonable degree of the real estate market scale in the western region is the lowest. The decrease of the land area which can be provided to the real estate development in the future is the main reason for the low scale of the real estate market in our country. Finally, on the basis of evaluating and analyzing the order of real estate market, the efficiency of resource allocation and the reasonable degree of scale, the Euclidean distance index method is adopted to construct the real estate market health index model. To our country real estate market health condition carries on the comprehensive appraisal. The evaluation results show that the health status of real estate market in China needs to be improved, the order of real estate market in the eastern region is not good, the allocation efficiency of real estate market resources in the western region is low, and the market scale is unreasonable. The low rationality of market scale is the main reason for the poor health of China's real estate market. The government should make corresponding policies, adjust the market environment, control the real estate investment, strengthen the management of the saving and utilization of urban land, and further standardize the order of the real estate market and promote the efficiency of the real estate market resource allocation. Optimize the scale of the real estate market, promote the healthy development of the real estate market.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳建筑大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

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