基于模糊层次分析法的房地产项目风险评价研究

发布时间：2018-08-21 12:07

【摘要】：房地产项目风险是一个复杂的系统,受到多方面的影响。2010年以来,我国房地产市场进入第六轮市场调控,随着房价不断上涨,房地产市场调控的力度不断加大。2013年2月,国务院再次发布“新国五条”,针对住宅类房地产的市场调控再次升级,房地产项目的风险越来越大,房地产开发商在进行项目投资前,深入分析评价各项目的风险情况,为成功决策提供理论支持越来越有必要。本文首先以住宅类房地产开发项目为研究对象,在总结梳理国内外关于房地产项目风险评价研究相关成果的基础上,结合工作经验和所学知识,采用分类型风险识别法从自然风险、政策变化风险、经济因素风险、技术更新风险、项目施工风险、社会风险和组织管理风险七个方面识别出近三十种影响房地产项目投资的风险。并在此基础上构建了房地产开发项目风险评价指标体系。在对当前我国房地产投资风险状况进行分析的基础上,总体回顾了自1993年以来的六轮房地产市场调控措施及效果,提出我国房地产项目风险发展呈现的五个趋势,分析认为,从未来发展趋势看,我国房地产项目的宏观经济风险、供求关系风险、税收政策风险和房地产开发商内部战略规划风险正不断加大。其次,在对风险评价方法进行回顾分析的基础上,基于模糊层次分析法,确定了房地产项目风险评价指标体系中各风险要素权重,建立了我国住宅类房地产开发项目风险综合评价模型,结合当前房地产市场调控力度不断加大的背景,适当加大政策风险权重,使风险评价指标体系和风险综合评价模型更加科学、合理。最后,通过河北省廊坊市M房地产项目实际开发情况,对构建的风险评价指标体系和风险综合评价模型进行了实证分析,证明了风险评价指标体系和风险综合评价模型的合理性和可靠性,本论文研究成果对房地产开发项目风险评价具有积极的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:Real estate project risk is a complex system, affected by many aspects. Since 2010, China's real estate market has entered the sixth round of market regulation and control. The State Council has again issued the "five articles of the New Nation," and the market regulation and control of residential real estate has been upgraded once again. The risks of real estate projects are getting bigger and bigger. Before the real estate developers invest in the projects, they thoroughly analyze and evaluate the risk situation of various projects. It is increasingly necessary to provide theoretical support for successful decisions. Firstly, this paper takes residential real estate development projects as the research object, on the basis of summing up and combing the related achievements of risk evaluation research on real estate projects at home and abroad, combining the work experience and the knowledge learned, Adopting the method of identifying risk by type from natural risk, policy change risk, economic factor risk, technology renewal risk, project construction risk, Social risk and organization management risk identify nearly 30 kinds of risk that affect real estate project investment. On this basis, the risk evaluation index system of real estate development project is constructed. Based on the analysis of the current situation of real estate investment risk in China, this paper reviews the six rounds of real estate market regulation and control measures and their effects since 1993, and points out five trends in the development of real estate project risk in China. From the point of view of the future development trend, the macro economic risk, supply and demand risk, tax policy risk and internal strategic planning risk of real estate developers are increasing. Secondly, on the basis of reviewing and analyzing the risk evaluation methods, and based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, this paper determines the weight of each risk element in the risk evaluation index system of real estate projects. This paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation model of the risk of residential real estate development projects in China, combining with the background of the increasing regulation and control of the real estate market at present, appropriately increasing the weight of policy risks. Make the risk evaluation index system and risk comprehensive evaluation model more scientific and reasonable. Finally, through the actual development of M real estate project in Langfang City, Hebei Province, the risk evaluation index system and risk comprehensive evaluation model are analyzed empirically. This paper proves the rationality and reliability of the risk evaluation index system and the risk comprehensive evaluation model. The research results of this paper have positive reference significance for the risk evaluation of real estate development projects.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F224

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