金融危机背景下国际资本流动对我国金融稳定影响研究
发布时间：2018-08-28 17:04
【摘要】：几乎每十年就要发生一次的金融危机已经成为现代经济社会发展的阵痛，1997年东南亚金融危机带给世界的心理阴影尚未完全消散，2007年爆发的美国次贷危机接踵而至，最终演变为全球金融危机，给多个国家带来了严重的经济损失。虽然历次金融危机发生的原因不尽相同，但近几次危机的产生与全球金融自由化和国际资本的自由流动密切相关。东南亚金融危机前，国际资本大量涌入东南亚新兴市场经济国家，推高了名义汇率和物价，造成股市和房地产市场的虚假繁荣，最终有预谋的对冲基金集中攻击引发了这场金融危机。2007年开始的金融危机至今还影响着全球的经济发展，危机爆发后，大量国际资本撤回本土挽救本国经济，给新兴市场经济国家带来一定程度的影响，我国目前也出现了国际资本撤离我国制造业和房地产业的现象，这是一种危险的信号。随着美国量化宽松货币政策的进一步实施，大量国际资本将在全球范围内流动，资本的这种频繁的大规模的流入流出会给一国的金融稳定带来冲击。金融稳定关乎国家经济稳定及社会稳定，十八大报告指出，我们要深化金融体制改革，完善金融监管，推进金融创新，维护金融稳定，2013年2月28日国家外汇管理局公布的《2012年中国跨境资金流动监测报告》中也罕见地警示了资本流出风险，国际资本流动对金融稳定影响的研究刻不容缓。 在当前金融危机影响尚存的背景下，本文综合运用现代经济学的分析方法和分析工具，通过理论分析、案例分析和实证检验，定性定量地分析国际资本流动对我国金融稳定产生的冲击，并根据分析结果提出国际资本流动下维护我国金融稳定的对策建议，以期能够预防和减缓国际资本流动对我国金融稳定产生的负面影响。 本文首先分别介绍了国际资本流动和金融稳定的相关概念及理论，回顾了国际资本流动对金融稳定影响的理论及传导机制，以1997年东南亚金融危机为案例分析了国际资本流动对金融稳定的冲击，为我国应对国际资本流动冲击提供借鉴。其次定性分析了我国国际资本流动现状，，测算了2008年第一季度至2012年第三季度共19个季度的FDI和非FDI规模，从银行微观层面、金融市场层面和宏观层面选取11个指标构建金融稳定评价体系，通过主成分分析法合成金融稳定指数，定量描述当前我国金融稳定状况。第三，通过单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应分析和方差分解等方法对2008年第一季度至2012年第三季度共19个季度的FDI和非FDI对金融稳定指数的影响进行了综合实证分析，发现在10%的显著性水平下FDI与金融稳定指数之间有一个长期协整关系，金融稳定是FDI的格兰杰原因，方差分解第十期，FDI和非FDI对金融稳定的方差贡献率约占30%。第四，通过实证方法分析了FDI和非FDI对资产价格、汇率水平和物价水平的影响，得出非FDI既是人民币汇率、物价水平和资本市场波动的格兰杰原因，又与其有着长期的协整关系，即国际资本流入推动了人民币升值、国内物价水平的上升和资产价格的波动；通过案例分析了国际资本流动对房地产市场和宏观经济尤其是我国制造业的影响，得出国际资本流出给我国制造业和房地产业带来隐患。根据理论分析和实证检验的结论提出金融危机背景下应对国际资本流动、维护我国金融稳定的建议——稳健有序的推动资本和金融账户的开放，完善人民币汇率形成机制，加强金融体系建设和监管制度建设，做好国际资本流动的监管和预警工作势在必行。
[Abstract]:Almost every ten years, the financial crisis has become the throes of modern economic and social development. The psychological shadow of Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997 has not completely dissipated. The American subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, and eventually evolved into a global financial crisis, bringing serious economic losses to many countries. However, the causes of financial crises are not the same, but the emergence of recent crises is closely related to global financial liberalization and the free flow of international capital. Rong, the ultimate premeditated hedge fund attack triggered the financial crisis. The financial crisis started in 2007 has still affected the global economic development. After the outbreak of the crisis, a large number of international capital withdrawn to save their own economy, to a certain extent, to the emerging market economy countries have brought about the impact of China's present international capital. With the further implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, a large amount of international capital will flow around the world. This frequent large-scale inflow and outflow of capital will impact on a country's financial stability. And social stability, the report of the 18th National Congress of the CPC pointed out that we should deepen the reform of the financial system, improve financial supervision, promote financial innovation and maintain financial stability. The study of noise is urgent.
Under the background that the impact of the current financial crisis still exists, this paper makes a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the impact of international capital flows on China's financial stability by using the analytical methods and tools of modern economics, through theoretical analysis, case analysis and empirical test, and proposes to maintain China's financial stability under international capital flows. Stable countermeasures and suggestions are expected to prevent and mitigate the negative impact of international capital flows on China's financial stability.
Firstly, this paper introduces the relevant concepts and theories of international capital flow and financial stability, reviews the theory and transmission mechanism of the impact of international capital flow on financial stability, and analyzes the impact of international capital flow on financial stability with the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997 as a case study to provide a loan for China to cope with the impact of international capital flow. Secondly, this paper qualitatively analyzes the current situation of China's international capital flows, estimates the scale of FDI and non-FDI in 19 quarters from the first quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2012, and selects 11 indicators from the micro-level of banks, the financial market level and the macro-level to construct the financial stability evaluation system, and synthesizes the financial stability index through the principal component analysis. Thirdly, through the methods of unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, VAR model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this paper makes a comprehensive empirical analysis of the impact of FDI and non-FDI on financial stability index in 19 quarters from the first quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2012, and finds that the impact is 10%. There is a long-term co-integration relationship between FDI and financial stability index under the significant level. Financial stability is the Granger cause of FDI. In the tenth phase of variance decomposition, the contribution rate of FDI and non-FDI to financial stability is about 30%. Fourthly, the impact of FDI and non-FDI on asset price, exchange rate level and price level is analyzed by empirical method. Non-FDI is not only the Granger cause of RMB exchange rate, price level and capital market fluctuation, but also has a long-term co-integration relationship with it, that is, international capital inflow promotes RMB appreciation, domestic price level and asset price fluctuation; this paper analyzes the impact of international capital flow on real estate market and macro-economy, especially through a case study. According to the conclusion of theoretical analysis and empirical test, this paper puts forward some suggestions to deal with the international capital flow and maintain China's financial stability under the background of the financial crisis - steadily and orderly promoting the opening of capital and financial accounts, and improving the RMB exchange rate. It is imperative to strengthen the construction of the financial system and the supervision system, and do a good job in the supervision and early warning of international capital flows.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832;F831.7
本文编号：2210018
[Abstract]:Almost every ten years, the financial crisis has become the throes of modern economic and social development. The psychological shadow of Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997 has not completely dissipated. The American subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007, and eventually evolved into a global financial crisis, bringing serious economic losses to many countries. However, the causes of financial crises are not the same, but the emergence of recent crises is closely related to global financial liberalization and the free flow of international capital. Rong, the ultimate premeditated hedge fund attack triggered the financial crisis. The financial crisis started in 2007 has still affected the global economic development. After the outbreak of the crisis, a large number of international capital withdrawn to save their own economy, to a certain extent, to the emerging market economy countries have brought about the impact of China's present international capital. With the further implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, a large amount of international capital will flow around the world. This frequent large-scale inflow and outflow of capital will impact on a country's financial stability. And social stability, the report of the 18th National Congress of the CPC pointed out that we should deepen the reform of the financial system, improve financial supervision, promote financial innovation and maintain financial stability. The study of noise is urgent.
Under the background that the impact of the current financial crisis still exists, this paper makes a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the impact of international capital flows on China's financial stability by using the analytical methods and tools of modern economics, through theoretical analysis, case analysis and empirical test, and proposes to maintain China's financial stability under international capital flows. Stable countermeasures and suggestions are expected to prevent and mitigate the negative impact of international capital flows on China's financial stability.
Firstly, this paper introduces the relevant concepts and theories of international capital flow and financial stability, reviews the theory and transmission mechanism of the impact of international capital flow on financial stability, and analyzes the impact of international capital flow on financial stability with the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997 as a case study to provide a loan for China to cope with the impact of international capital flow. Secondly, this paper qualitatively analyzes the current situation of China's international capital flows, estimates the scale of FDI and non-FDI in 19 quarters from the first quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2012, and selects 11 indicators from the micro-level of banks, the financial market level and the macro-level to construct the financial stability evaluation system, and synthesizes the financial stability index through the principal component analysis. Thirdly, through the methods of unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test, VAR model, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition, this paper makes a comprehensive empirical analysis of the impact of FDI and non-FDI on financial stability index in 19 quarters from the first quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2012, and finds that the impact is 10%. There is a long-term co-integration relationship between FDI and financial stability index under the significant level. Financial stability is the Granger cause of FDI. In the tenth phase of variance decomposition, the contribution rate of FDI and non-FDI to financial stability is about 30%. Fourthly, the impact of FDI and non-FDI on asset price, exchange rate level and price level is analyzed by empirical method. Non-FDI is not only the Granger cause of RMB exchange rate, price level and capital market fluctuation, but also has a long-term co-integration relationship with it, that is, international capital inflow promotes RMB appreciation, domestic price level and asset price fluctuation; this paper analyzes the impact of international capital flow on real estate market and macro-economy, especially through a case study. According to the conclusion of theoretical analysis and empirical test, this paper puts forward some suggestions to deal with the international capital flow and maintain China's financial stability under the background of the financial crisis - steadily and orderly promoting the opening of capital and financial accounts, and improving the RMB exchange rate. It is imperative to strengthen the construction of the financial system and the supervision system, and do a good job in the supervision and early warning of international capital flows.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832;F831.7
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