长三角地区城市化与房地产业互动发展关系研究

发布时间：2018-09-05 08:24

【摘要】：城市化是人类社会发展的必然趋势,也是现阶段我国经济增长的内生动力。2011年中国城市化率达到51.3%,城镇人口首次超过农村人口,这意味着我国的城镇化发展进入了新的发展阶段,城市的空间结构、产业定位、城市规划等都将面临新的发展机遇。房地产业作为国民经济的基础性、先导性产业,是城市化的物质载体,随着城市化进程的加快,必然有大量农村剩余劳动力进入城镇生存、生活,这为房地产业的发展提供了广阔的空间。然而我国地区经济发展不平衡,各地区城市化和房地产业发展水平存在很大差距,因此,从区域角度研究城市化和房地产业的互动关系,对于推动该区域城市化与房地产业的健康发展有着重要的现实意义。本文以城市经济学、区域经济学、房地产经济学等理论为基础,选择长三角地区作为研究对象,运用归纳与演绎、规范与实证、定性与定量等方法,从横向和纵向两个角度研究长三角地区城市化与房地产业的互动发展关系。定性角度：从长三角地区城市化和房地产业发展的实际情况出发,分析两者的互动影响机制。定量角度：首先运用因子分析法对长三角地区城市化和房地产业发展水平进行综合评价,建立两者的主成分回归模型；然后,运用协调度模型,揭示各地区城市化与房地产业的协调关系；再者,从纵向的角度,选取上海作为代表城市,对时间序列数据进行Granger因果检验,考察城市化与房地产业之间的因果关系。最后,就如何促进长三角地区城市化与房地产业互动发展提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is the inevitable trend of the development of human society and the endogenous driving force of China's economic growth at the present stage. In 2011, the urbanization rate in China reached 51.3 percent, and the urban population surpassed the rural population for the first time. This means that China's urbanization has entered a new stage of development, the urban spatial structure, industrial positioning, urban planning and so on will face new development opportunities. As the basic and leading industry of the national economy, the real estate industry is the material carrier of urbanization. With the acceleration of the urbanization process, a large number of rural surplus labor force will inevitably enter the cities and towns to survive and live. This provides a broad space for the development of the real estate industry. However, the regional economic development in China is not balanced, and there is a big gap between urbanization and real estate development in different regions. Therefore, the interactive relationship between urbanization and real estate industry is studied from a regional perspective. It has important practical significance to promote the regional urbanization and the healthy development of the real estate industry. Based on the theories of urban economics, regional economics and real estate economics, this paper chooses the Yangtze River Delta region as the research object, and applies the methods of induction and deduction, norm and demonstration, qualitative and quantitative analysis, etc. The relationship between urbanization and real estate industry in Yangtze River Delta is studied from the horizontal and vertical angles. Qualitative angle: starting from the actual situation of urbanization and real estate development in Yangtze River Delta, this paper analyzes the interaction mechanism between them. Quantitative point of view: firstly, we use factor analysis method to comprehensively evaluate urbanization and real estate development level in Yangtze River Delta region, and then establish the principal component regression model of both, and then use the coordination degree model to evaluate the development level of urbanization and real estate industry in Yangtze River Delta region. Furthermore, from the vertical point of view, Shanghai is selected as the representative city, and the Granger causality test of time series data is carried out to investigate the causality between urbanization and real estate industry. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to promote the interactive development of urbanization and real estate industry in Yangtze River Delta.
【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23

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