基于神经网络的X公司太阳镜销售预测研究
发布时间：2018-09-08 09:48
【摘要】：预测就是根据历史推测未来，，是一种对未来的探索行为。经济预测作为预测的一个分支，是预测理论和方法在经济领域中的应用。经济预测研究的主要内容包括生产和资源预测、市场预测、人们生活消费预测、商业企业商品销量预测等。经济预测可以帮助企业做出正确的投资决策使其更容易实现利润最大化的目标。神经网络预测方法在经济预测中已经得到了广泛的应用。比如在国际石油价格的预测、金融衍生品定价预测、商业企业商品销量预测、房地产销售价格预测等方面都应用了神经网络预测方法。本文主要研究了神经网络预测方法基本理论和模型，在此基础上应用神经网络预测方法解决了X眼镜公司销售预测的实际问题。 本文第一部分简述了神经网络在国内外的研究现状以及本文的研究线路。第二部分对X眼镜公司的销售管理现状进行分析，指出目前X眼镜公司在销售管理中存在的问题，证明销售预测的必要性。第三部分进行了经济预测以及有关神经网络理论的概述。第四部分说明了神经网络模型结构上的设计以及使用神经网络工具箱建立神经网络模型的步骤。第五部分以X眼镜公司太阳镜销售预测为例，通过收集和分析X眼镜公司太阳镜历年销售数据，然后运用神经网络预测方法解决X眼镜公司太阳镜销售量预测的问题。以此帮助企业系统地进行销售预测，并且辅助企业管理者制定出合理的销售计划。第六部分总结了本文的研究成果并指出研究中的不足，对未来提出展望。
[Abstract]:Prediction is to speculate the future according to the history, is a kind of exploration behavior to the future. As a branch of forecasting, economic forecasting is the application of forecasting theory and method in economic field. The main content of the economic forecast research includes production and resource forecast, market forecast, people's living consumption forecast, commercial enterprise commodity sales forecast and so on. Economic forecasting can help enterprises to make the right investment decisions to make it easier to achieve the goal of profit maximization. Neural network prediction method has been widely used in economic forecasting. For example, in the international oil price prediction, financial derivatives pricing forecast, commercial enterprise commodity sales forecast, real estate sales price prediction and other aspects of the application of neural network forecasting methods. In this paper, the basic theory and model of the neural network prediction method are studied, and the practical problem of the X glasses company's sales forecast is solved by using the neural network forecast method. The first part of this paper briefly describes the research status of neural networks at home and abroad and the research route of this paper. The second part analyzes the present situation of sales management in X glasses company, points out the problems existing in the sales management of X glasses company, and proves the necessity of sales forecast. The third part carries on the economic forecast as well as the related neural network theory summary. The fourth part describes the design of the neural network model and the steps of using the neural network toolbox to build the neural network model. The fifth part takes X glasses company sunglasses sales forecast as an example, through collecting and analyzing the sales data of X glasses company sunglasses over the years, and then using neural network forecast method to solve the problem of X glasses company sunglasses sales forecast. In order to help enterprises to systematically predict sales, and assist enterprise managers to develop a reasonable sales plan. The sixth part summarizes the research results and points out the shortcomings of the research, and puts forward the prospects for the future.
【学位授予单位】：重庆理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TP183;F724.2
本文编号：2230169
[Abstract]:Prediction is to speculate the future according to the history, is a kind of exploration behavior to the future. As a branch of forecasting, economic forecasting is the application of forecasting theory and method in economic field. The main content of the economic forecast research includes production and resource forecast, market forecast, people's living consumption forecast, commercial enterprise commodity sales forecast and so on. Economic forecasting can help enterprises to make the right investment decisions to make it easier to achieve the goal of profit maximization. Neural network prediction method has been widely used in economic forecasting. For example, in the international oil price prediction, financial derivatives pricing forecast, commercial enterprise commodity sales forecast, real estate sales price prediction and other aspects of the application of neural network forecasting methods. In this paper, the basic theory and model of the neural network prediction method are studied, and the practical problem of the X glasses company's sales forecast is solved by using the neural network forecast method. The first part of this paper briefly describes the research status of neural networks at home and abroad and the research route of this paper. The second part analyzes the present situation of sales management in X glasses company, points out the problems existing in the sales management of X glasses company, and proves the necessity of sales forecast. The third part carries on the economic forecast as well as the related neural network theory summary. The fourth part describes the design of the neural network model and the steps of using the neural network toolbox to build the neural network model. The fifth part takes X glasses company sunglasses sales forecast as an example, through collecting and analyzing the sales data of X glasses company sunglasses over the years, and then using neural network forecast method to solve the problem of X glasses company sunglasses sales forecast. In order to help enterprises to systematically predict sales, and assist enterprise managers to develop a reasonable sales plan. The sixth part summarizes the research results and points out the shortcomings of the research, and puts forward the prospects for the future.
【学位授予单位】：重庆理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TP183;F724.2
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前7条
1 廖晓峰;李传东;;神经网络研究的发展趋势[J];国际学术动态;2006年05期
2 高芳,王明秀,崔刚;基于神经网络的高校财务评价[J];哈尔滨工业大学学报;2005年06期
3 陈军飞,申富饶,王嘉松;股价指数时间序列的分形性质分析[J];经济数学;2000年01期
4 肖卓宇;何锫;;基于遗传算法的神经网络在销售决策中的应用[J];计算机应用;2007年S1期
5 孟凡超;张洪伟;徐剑;;基于遗传算法的BP神经网络在企业资信评估中的应用[J];计算机应用研究;2007年08期
6 苏高利,邓芳萍;论基于MATLAB语言的BP神经网络的改进算法[J];科技通报;2003年02期
7 王维,贺京同,张建勋,卢桂章,张灿;人工神经网络在非线性经济预测中的应用[J];系统工程学报;2000年02期
本文编号：2230169
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/fangdichanjingjilunwen/2230169.html
