太原市商业地产投资规模影响因素及发展趋势研究

发布时间：2018-09-10 14:50

【摘要】：商业地产发展状况是一个城市经济发展的缩影。近年来，虽然住宅地产市场疯狂的增长势头被国家连续出台的房地产调控政策所严重抑制，但是投资需求却依然旺盛，开发商为了寻找新的出路，纷纷将目光转向商业地产领域，这使得商业地产投资掀起了新的热潮。该领域的专家认为，商业地产市场并不存在刚性需求，相对于住宅地产来说，其投资风险更高一些，过度的投资也只会催生出下一个“泡沫”，对区域的经济发展造成严重的危害。太原作为山西省省会城市，近些年经济发展迅速，城市建设步伐进一步加快，无疑给商业地产的发展注入极大的活力，也为太原市商业地产投资提供了良好的机会。为此，研究太原市商业地产投资规模影响因素，预测短期发展趋势，确定合理的商业地产投资规模，具有十分重要的意义。本文研究的主要目的是通过运用主成分分析法、多元线性回归模型、以及ARIMA模型，对太原市商业地产投资规模发展趋势进行分析和预测，探索商业地产投资规模影响因素的分析方法，从而丰富和发展上述理论和方法的应用体系，为政府相关部门和企业做出科学的决策提供一些依据。因此，本文将太原市商业地产投资规模作为研究对象，首先研究了商业地产以及投资规模相关的概念和理论，，分析了太原市商业地产的发展现状及存在的问题；其次根据相关理论找出可统计和量化的太原市商业地产投资规模的影响因素，建立影响因素指标体系，对太原市商业地产投资规模的影响因素进行主成分分析，并根据其影响商业地产投资规模程度的大小来进行排序，得到影响太原市商业地产投资规模的四个主要因素，即城市发展水平、本地商业地产供求水平、本地行政化水平和本地居民的生活水平；然后通过多元线性回归模型和ARIMA模型对太原市未来三年的商业地产投资规模发展趋势进行了预测，得出太原市商业地产行业在未来几年来仍然会取得较快发展，在短期之内其投资规模将会呈现出持续上升的趋势；最后，针对太原市商业地产投资现状和近期发展趋势，对当地政府和房地产企业今后如何保持商业地产的良好发展提出相关建议。
[Abstract]:Commercial real estate development is the epitome of a city's economic development. In recent years, although the crazy growth momentum of the residential real estate market has been severely suppressed by the state's successive real estate regulation and control policies, but the investment demand is still strong, developers are looking for a new way out. Turn to the commercial real estate field one after another, this makes the commercial real estate investment set off a new upsurge. Experts in this field believe that there is no rigid demand in the commercial real estate market, that its investment risk is higher than residential property, and that excessive investment will only create the next "bubble". To the region's economic development caused serious harm. Taiyuan, as the capital city of Shanxi Province, has been developing rapidly in recent years, and the pace of urban construction has been further accelerated. It has undoubtedly injected great vitality into the development of commercial real estate and provided a good opportunity for the investment of commercial real estate in Taiyuan. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the factors affecting the scale of commercial real estate investment in Taiyuan, to predict the short-term development trend and to determine the reasonable scale of commercial real estate investment. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze and predict the development trend of commercial real estate investment scale in Taiyuan by using principal component analysis, multivariate linear regression model and ARIMA model. In order to enrich and develop the application system of the above theories and methods, this paper explores the analysis methods of the influencing factors of the scale of commercial real estate investment, and provides some basis for the relevant government departments and enterprises to make scientific decisions. Therefore, this paper takes the investment scale of commercial real estate in Taiyuan as the object of study. Firstly, it studies the concept and theory of commercial real estate and investment scale, and analyzes the development status and existing problems of commercial real estate in Taiyuan. Secondly, according to the relevant theory to find out the statistical and quantifiable influencing factors of the scale of commercial real estate investment in Taiyuan, establish the index system of the influencing factors, and carry on the principal component analysis to the influencing factors of the scale of the commercial real estate investment in Taiyuan. According to the degree of commercial real estate investment, the paper gets the four main factors that affect the scale of commercial real estate investment in Taiyuan, that is, the level of urban development, the level of supply and demand of local commercial real estate. The level of local administration and the standard of living of local residents, and then forecast the development trend of commercial real estate investment scale in Taiyuan in the next three years through multiple linear regression model and ARIMA model. It is concluded that the commercial real estate industry in Taiyuan will still make rapid development in the next few years, and its investment scale will continue to rise in the short term. Finally, aiming at the current situation and recent development trend of commercial real estate investment in Taiyuan, To the local government and real estate enterprises in the future how to maintain the good development of commercial real estate put forward relevant suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：中北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.27

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