基于EVA估价模型的A房地产企业价值评估问题研究

发布时间：2018-10-11 11:50

【摘要】：当前，房地产企业面临着日渐复杂、愈发动态的内外环境变化，随着国家房价调控措施日趋成熟，市场环境的日趋规范、融资环境的恶化、新竞争者的涌入，房地产企业要想获取竞争优势，就必须不断提高自身价值。然而，房地产企业是典型的资金密集型企业，存在股权融资过度偏好，偏重于规模化发展，注重利润增长以及忽视股权成本、资本使用效率较低的问题。传统的估值方法忽略了权益资本成本，受会计信息失真影响较大，无法满足正确认识企业价值的要求，，而EVA估值模型全面考虑房企的资金成本，剔除会计准则对会计信息的扭曲，着眼企业的长远发展。在理论部分，本文从基本原理、会计调整、使用方法阐述了EVA的计算方法，并成功推导出EVA价值评估模型的几种特殊形式。基于房地产企业特殊的会计处理特点，通过比较各类模型的优劣和适用条件，本文认为EVA估值模型适用于房地产企业价值评估，而且与其他评估方法相比更有优势及可操作性，它的优势之处在于全面考虑资金成本、关注企业长远价值创造和将价值评估与业绩评价的有机统一。在案例分析中，本文选择房地产龙头企业保利地产作为研究对象。首先从收入与盈利分析、每股指标分析、资产负债分析和未来发展趋势判断和保利经营战略分析四个维度去剖析保利目前的财务状况和未来业绩预期，从分析结果看选用EVA三阶段估值模型比较合理。将各个预测年份的经济增加值贴现之和加总估算出2011年底保利企业价值折合每股12.92元，与当时市价偏差28%，而随后的股价估值收复的趋势和上涨通道的形成表明估值结果有一定的准确性。后续敏感性分析也表明加权平均资本成本的偏差对于内在价值的影响比较大，说明折现率在估值模型应该重点关注。对估值结果的深层次挖掘，本文从需求、供给和市场预期三个方面分别说明了股价被低估背后有着深刻的时代背景和合理的解释。文中最后提出了基于EVA的价值驱动因素分析，并总结保利提高企业价值的几点建议。本文希望结合剖析保利地产运用EVA模型估值的例子，能以此为今后研究房地产上市公司价值评估提供借鉴意义，为房地产公司更客观、更有效地开展日常经营活动和各项决策提供可靠依据。
[Abstract]:At present, real estate enterprises are facing more and more complex and dynamic internal and external environmental changes. With the maturing of national housing price control measures, the increasingly standardized market environment, the deterioration of financing environment, the influx of new competitors. Real estate enterprises want to gain competitive advantage, they must constantly improve their own value. However, the real estate enterprise is a typical capital-intensive enterprise, which has the problems of excessive preference of equity financing, emphasis on large-scale development, attention to profit growth and neglect of the cost of equity, and low efficiency of capital use. The traditional valuation method neglects the cost of equity capital, which is greatly influenced by the distortion of accounting information, and cannot meet the requirements of correct understanding of enterprise value. However, the EVA valuation model considers the capital cost of housing enterprises in a comprehensive way. Eliminate the distortion of accounting information and focus on the long-term development of enterprises. In the theoretical part, this paper expounds the calculation method of EVA from the basic principle, accounting adjustment and using method, and successfully deduces several special forms of EVA value evaluation model. Based on the special accounting characteristics of real estate enterprises, and by comparing the advantages and disadvantages of various models and their applicable conditions, this paper holds that the EVA valuation model is suitable for the valuation of real estate enterprises and has more advantages and maneuverability compared with other evaluation methods. Its advantage lies in considering the cost of funds comprehensively, paying attention to the long-term value creation of enterprises and unifying the evaluation of value and performance. In the case analysis, this article chooses the real estate leading enterprise Poly real estate as the research object. First of all, from four dimensions of income and earnings analysis, EPS analysis, asset-liability analysis, future development trend judgment and Poly management strategy analysis to analyze Poly's current financial situation and future performance expectations. According to the analysis results, it is reasonable to select EVA three-stage valuation model. The sum of the discounted economic added value of each forecast year is estimated to be 12.92 yuan per share at the end of 2011. The deviation from the current market price is 28%, and the trend of recovery and the formation of the rising channel show that the valuation results are accurate. The subsequent sensitivity analysis also shows that the deviation of weighted average capital cost has a great influence on the intrinsic value, which indicates that the discount rate should be paid more attention to in the valuation model. Based on the deep mining of valuation results, this paper explains the historical background and reasonable explanation of undervalued stock price from three aspects: demand, supply and market expectation. Finally, the paper puts forward the value driving factor analysis based on EVA, and summarizes some suggestions on how to improve the enterprise value by Poly. This paper hopes to analyze the EVA model valuation example of Poly Real Estate, which can be used as a reference for the future research on the valuation of listed real estate companies, and more objective for the real estate companies. More effective daily business activities and decisions to provide reliable basis.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F299.233.4

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