房地产泡沫指数研究

发布时间：2018-10-18 15:37

【摘要】：国内房地产泡沫测度方法多借鉴国外模型,有其自身缺陷。本文从金融支持过度、投机行为方面分析房地产泡沫生成原因,明确房地产发展景气指数与房地产泡沫指数的区别,选择直接影响房地产价格、规模的指标,并确立符合中国国情的统一计算标准。本文通过因子分析,构建房地产泡沫指数模型,并结合单指标空置率,加强对空置房屋市场的监测了解,完善房地产泡沫测度的监测体系。本文通过对京津冀地区不同线级城市数据的对比分析,确定不同线级城市房地产泡沫2002-2016年间的指数情况,得出2013-2016年间中国房地产市场处于泡沫异常区间的结论,建议完善房屋租赁市场建设,健全房产登记和税收制度,防范市场调整期的潜在风险。
[Abstract]:The domestic real estate bubble measure method draws lessons from the foreign model, has its own flaw. This paper analyzes the causes of the real estate bubble from the aspects of excessive financial support and speculative behavior, clarifies the difference between the real estate boom index and the real estate bubble index, and selects the indicators that directly affect the real estate price and scale. And establish a unified calculation standard in line with China's national conditions. Through factor analysis, this paper constructs the real estate bubble index model, and combines the single index vacancy rate, strengthens the monitoring understanding to the vacant housing market, consummates the real estate bubble measure monitoring system. By comparing and analyzing the data of different line cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area, this paper determines the index of real estate bubble in different cities from 2002 to 2016, and draws the conclusion that the real estate market in China is in the abnormal range of bubble during 2013-2016. It is suggested to perfect the construction of the housing rental market, to perfect the real estate registration and tax system, and to guard against the potential risks in the period of market adjustment.
【作者单位】：河北工业大学经济管理学院;天津商业大学经济研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“符合中国国情的住房保障和供应体系研究”(批准号:14BJY060)
【分类号】：F299.23

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