云南省房地产业与宏观经济发展的协调性分析

发布时间：2018-10-19 11:02

【摘要】：一个与经济发展相协调的房地产市场应该是一个健康的、平稳的、能对经济增长产生拉动作用的市场。本文通过定性、定量相结合的分析方法,利用统计方法,计量经济方法对云南省房地产市场的周期性和经济增长的拉动效应进行了测定；鉴于房地产业在云南省经济发展中的重要性,本文通过泡沫分析评价了云南省房地产业的健康水平,并分析了影响房地产业健康、平稳发展的影响因素。首先,本文采用单一指标法、基于主成分合成的多指标方法,对云南省房地产业1996年——2012年的运行周期进行测算,并对云南省房地产的周期特征和成因进行了系统的分析。研究结果表明：第一,房地产周期与宏观经济周期密切相关,但其复苏、繁荣期快于经济周期,其衰退期滞后于经济周期的结论；第二,国家宏观调控政策对云南省房地产周期波动影响较为明显,鼓励性政策当期响应,抑制性政策滞后1-2期响应。第三,2009年以前,云南省房地产周期与全国的房地产周期的波峰同步出现,云南省的波谷滞后于全国波谷1年,但2009年后云南省的波峰、波谷均滞后于全国1年。其次,本文采用VAR模型、Granger因果检验,对房地产业与云南省经济增长的关系进行了实证分析。结果显示,云南省房地产业与经济增长之间存在长期的协整关系,房地产投资每增长1个百分点,可拉动经济增长0.496个百分点,二者之间存在双向的Granger因果关系,同时,云南省房地产开发投资对经济增长的持续正向影响要大于经济增长对房地产业的正向影响。第三,本文采用1996-2012年的相关数据,利用影响房地产泡沫的五个指标,对昆明市、云南省及全国的房地产的泡沫进行了系统分析,研究表明云南省房地产业1996-2012年总体来看是健康的,其健康水平优于全国,但是省会城市昆明的房地产市场在部分年份存在泡沫。其次,在构建房地产泡沫指标体系的基础上,采用模糊综合评价法,对昆明市的房地产泡沫作了纵向与横向的研究与比较,并对其成因作了详细分析。第四,总结了前面的分析结果,在此基础上提出了云南省促进房地产业健康、协调发展的政策建议,并对未来的研究进行了展望。
[Abstract]:A real estate market in harmony with economic development should be a healthy, stable market that can pull economic growth. In this paper, the periodicity of Yunnan real estate market and the pulling effect of economic growth are measured by means of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods and econometric methods. In view of the importance of the real estate industry in the economic development of Yunnan Province, this paper evaluates the health level of the real estate industry in Yunnan Province through bubble analysis, and analyzes the influencing factors affecting the healthy and stable development of the real estate industry. Firstly, this paper uses the single index method, based on the principal component synthesis multiple index method, calculates the running cycle of Yunnan real estate industry from 1996 to 2012, and systematically analyzes the cycle characteristics and causes of the real estate industry in Yunnan Province. The results show that: first, the real estate cycle is closely related to the macroeconomic cycle, but its recovery, boom period is faster than the economic cycle, its recession lags behind the economic cycle conclusion; second, The national macro-control policy has an obvious effect on the periodic fluctuation of real estate in Yunnan Province, encouraging policy response in the current period, restraining policy lag in 1-2 period response. Third, before 2009, the real estate cycle of Yunnan Province appeared synchronously with the wave peak of the national real estate cycle. The trough of Yunnan Province lagged behind the national trough for one year, but the peak and trough of Yunnan Province lagged behind the whole country for one year after 2009. Secondly, VAR model and Granger causality test are used to analyze the relationship between real estate industry and economic growth in Yunnan Province. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the real estate industry and economic growth in Yunnan Province. Every 1 percentage point increase in real estate investment can pull the economic growth by 0.496%. There is a two-way Granger causality between the two, and at the same time, The sustained positive impact of real estate investment on economic growth in Yunnan Province is greater than that on real estate industry by economic growth. Thirdly, using the relevant data from 1996 to 2012, this paper makes a systematic analysis of the real estate bubble in Kunming City, Yunnan Province and the whole country by using the five indexes that affect the real estate bubble. The study shows that the real estate industry in Yunnan Province was healthy from 1996 to 2012, and its health level was better than that of the whole country, but the real estate market in Kunming, the provincial capital city, was frothy in some years. Secondly, on the basis of constructing the index system of real estate bubble, using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, this paper makes a longitudinal and horizontal study and comparison of real estate bubble in Kunming, and makes a detailed analysis of its causes. Fourthly, this paper summarizes the previous analysis results, and then puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the healthy and coordinated development of real estate industry in Yunnan Province, and looks forward to the future research.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F299.27

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