我国城市房价与地价的关系研究
发布时间：2018-10-22 19:57
【摘要】：自从1998年住房制度改革以来,我国结束了福利分房时代,进入自由购房阶段,住房实现了商品化,我国居民可以根据自身需求自由选择房屋居住。但是,随着我国经济持续发展,人民生活水平逐渐提高,房价与地价也在持续上涨。尤其是2008年美国次贷危机以来,我国为了刺激经济,大力发展房地产业,造成了房价与地价的高速增长,“买房难”现在已经成为影响国计民生的大问题。最近几年国家相继出台了一系列政策企图遏制房价,但是收效甚微,所以我们有必要对房价与地价之间的关系进行研究,分析究竟是房价影响地价还是地价影响房价,还是它们受到其他因素影响,并提出相应的应对措施。弄清房价与地价以及相关因素之间的关系对于我国房地产业积极健康的发展具有重要的理论意义与实践意义。 本文首先进行文献综述,将国外与国内专家学者的相关研究分类汇总。在借鉴前人研究成果的基础上,除了房价与地价之外,还选取了土地购置面积、房屋竣工面积、房地产开发投资额、在岗职工平均工资、人均地区生产总值这五个因素进行研究,并建立模型。 在实证阶段,本文首先选取全国房价与地价2004年第1季度至2011年第4季度的数据采用Granger因果检验对于二者之间的关系进行研究,得知房价与地价之间在短期内具有显著的相关关系,并且房价对于地价的影响要大于地价对房价的影响；在长期内,房价对地价依然具有显著影响,但是地价对房价的影响并不显著。之后选取国内35个大中城市前述七个变量2002年至2011年十年的年度数据进行分析研究,得知房价与地价之间均存在显著的相关关系,并且房价对地价的拉动作用要显著强于地价对房价的拉动作用。而从东部、中部、西部这三部分相比较来看,东部房价对地价的带动作用最强,西部次之,中部最差；与之相反,西部地价对房价的拉动作用最为显著,中部次之,东部最弱。同时东部房价的影响因素众多,但是只有房价这一个因素影响地价；西部城市房价只有地价一个影响因素,同时地价的影响因素也是只有房价以及房地产开发投资额。 本文最后提出了稳定房地产价格的主要措施：一是完善房地产市场竞争机制,二是限制对东部地区的过度开发。完善房地产市场竞争机制需要降低房地产厂商进入门槛,提高市场透明度,完善土地“招拍挂”制度,发展二手房市场,完善相关法律法规。限制对东部城市的过度开发需要大力发展廉住房与经济适用房,调整住房供应结构,完善住房租赁市场,改变传统落后观念。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing system in 1998, our country has put an end to the era of welfare housing division, entered the stage of free purchase, and realized the commercialization of housing. Chinese residents can freely choose their houses according to their own needs. However, with the sustained development of our economy, people's living standards are gradually improving, housing prices and land prices are also rising. Especially since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, in order to stimulate the economy and vigorously develop the real estate industry in China, resulting in the rapid growth of house prices and land prices, "difficult to buy a house" has become a major problem affecting the national economy and people's livelihood. In recent years, the state has successively introduced a series of policies to curb house prices, but there has been little effect. Therefore, it is necessary for us to study the relationship between house prices and land prices, and to analyze whether housing prices affect land prices or land prices. Or are they affected by other factors and put forward corresponding countermeasures. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to clarify the relationship between house price, land price and related factors for the positive and healthy development of China's real estate industry. In this paper, the literature review, foreign and domestic experts and scholars related to the classification and summary. On the basis of the previous research results, in addition to house prices and land prices, we also selected the land purchase area, the completed housing area, the real estate development investment, the average wage of the employed workers. The five factors of per capita regional GDP are studied, and a model is established. In the empirical stage, this paper firstly selects the data from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2011 to study the relationship between them by Granger causality test. It is known that there is a significant correlation between house price and land price in the short term, and the impact of house price on land price is greater than that of land price, and in the long run, housing price still has significant influence on land price. But the impact of land price on house prices is not significant. Then, the annual data of the above-mentioned seven variables in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2002 to 2011 are analyzed and studied, and it is found that there is a significant correlation between house prices and land prices. And the pulling effect of house price on land price is obviously stronger than that of land price on house price. Compared with the three parts of the east, the middle and the west, the price of house in the east has the strongest driving effect on the land price, followed by the west and the middle. On the contrary, the pulling effect of the land price in the west is the most significant, followed by the middle, and the weakest in the east. At the same time, there are many factors affecting the house price in the east, but only one factor affects the land price. In the western city, there is only one factor in the housing price, and the influence factor of the land price is only the house price and the investment in real estate development. Finally, the paper puts forward the main measures to stabilize the real estate price: first, to perfect the competition mechanism of the real estate market; second, to limit the over-exploitation of the eastern region. To perfect the competition mechanism of real estate market, it is necessary to lower the entry threshold of real estate manufacturers, improve the transparency of the market, perfect the system of land "recruitment, auction and hanging", develop the second-hand housing market, and perfect the relevant laws and regulations. To limit the over-development of eastern cities, we should develop cheap housing and comfortable housing, adjust the structure of housing supply, perfect the housing rental market, and change the traditional backward concept.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F301.4
本文编号：2288156
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing system in 1998, our country has put an end to the era of welfare housing division, entered the stage of free purchase, and realized the commercialization of housing. Chinese residents can freely choose their houses according to their own needs. However, with the sustained development of our economy, people's living standards are gradually improving, housing prices and land prices are also rising. Especially since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, in order to stimulate the economy and vigorously develop the real estate industry in China, resulting in the rapid growth of house prices and land prices, "difficult to buy a house" has become a major problem affecting the national economy and people's livelihood. In recent years, the state has successively introduced a series of policies to curb house prices, but there has been little effect. Therefore, it is necessary for us to study the relationship between house prices and land prices, and to analyze whether housing prices affect land prices or land prices. Or are they affected by other factors and put forward corresponding countermeasures. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to clarify the relationship between house price, land price and related factors for the positive and healthy development of China's real estate industry. In this paper, the literature review, foreign and domestic experts and scholars related to the classification and summary. On the basis of the previous research results, in addition to house prices and land prices, we also selected the land purchase area, the completed housing area, the real estate development investment, the average wage of the employed workers. The five factors of per capita regional GDP are studied, and a model is established. In the empirical stage, this paper firstly selects the data from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2011 to study the relationship between them by Granger causality test. It is known that there is a significant correlation between house price and land price in the short term, and the impact of house price on land price is greater than that of land price, and in the long run, housing price still has significant influence on land price. But the impact of land price on house prices is not significant. Then, the annual data of the above-mentioned seven variables in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2002 to 2011 are analyzed and studied, and it is found that there is a significant correlation between house prices and land prices. And the pulling effect of house price on land price is obviously stronger than that of land price on house price. Compared with the three parts of the east, the middle and the west, the price of house in the east has the strongest driving effect on the land price, followed by the west and the middle. On the contrary, the pulling effect of the land price in the west is the most significant, followed by the middle, and the weakest in the east. At the same time, there are many factors affecting the house price in the east, but only one factor affects the land price. In the western city, there is only one factor in the housing price, and the influence factor of the land price is only the house price and the investment in real estate development. Finally, the paper puts forward the main measures to stabilize the real estate price: first, to perfect the competition mechanism of the real estate market; second, to limit the over-exploitation of the eastern region. To perfect the competition mechanism of real estate market, it is necessary to lower the entry threshold of real estate manufacturers, improve the transparency of the market, perfect the system of land "recruitment, auction and hanging", develop the second-hand housing market, and perfect the relevant laws and regulations. To limit the over-development of eastern cities, we should develop cheap housing and comfortable housing, adjust the structure of housing supply, perfect the housing rental market, and change the traditional backward concept.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F301.4
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