小区市政管线工程业主方风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-11-16 14:29

【摘要】：当前，我国房地产业调控政策频出，市场环境复杂，项目开发的不确定因素越来越多,房地产业之间的竞争越来越激烈，全过程、全方面、全员参与的风险管理则是有效的应对方法。小区市政管线是指住宅小区红线内地下管线，是小区配套设施的重要组成部分，虽然其投资比例较小，但是对房地产项目开发的各个阶段都有重要的影响。本论文选取小区市政管线中对项目开发影响最大的供水、供电、供气管线进行研究，简述国内近三十年来，小区市政管线的建设、管理模式以及其中所存在的问题，通过对相关法律法规和现行管线管理模式的分析，指出二者之间的矛盾所带来的产权困境是风险产生的主要根源。本文将小区市政管线工程看成独立的项目，按项目的基本生命周期理论，结合小区市政管线工程的特点，构建阶段模型，将小区市政管线工程分为报装、合同、施工、验收四个阶段。采用专家访谈法，选取有丰富经验的房地产开发管理人员进行访谈；采用案例分析法，选取五个案例，对其中较为典型的风险因素进行分析；通过对报装阶段报装流程的分析，合同阶段信息不对称、分包商索赔的博弈分析，，施工阶段施工环境、质量问题的分析，验收阶段验收流程的分析，总结出风险成因。最后综合以上三种方法，得出风险识别清单。在风险的评估上，根据小区市政管线的风险特点，对风险发生概率与损害后果进行分级，构建风险等级矩阵并进行风险排序。根据风险的多维特性，从不可察觉性、不可控性、不可逆转性、影响持续时间、级联影响五个角度构建评价模型，对分级后的风险二次过滤，弥补了传统方法的不足，并为风险的正确应对提供了依据。介绍风险应对的常用方法，根据风险应对的过程和要点，建立风险应对表。结合风险动态管理理论，指出小区市政管线建设中风险的“迁移效应”。介绍小区市政管线风险监控的重点和常用监控方法。在御翠尚府小区市政管线建设中，成立风险管理小组，依据风险管理流程和理论，结合项目特点，开展风险管理，对风险管理理论进行实证研究并总结。
[Abstract]:At present, the regulation and control policies of China's real estate industry frequently emerge, the market environment is complex, the uncertain factors of project development are more and more numerous, the competition between the real estate industry is becoming more and more intense, the whole process, all aspects, Risk management with full participation is an effective way to deal with it. The municipal pipeline is the underground pipeline in the red line of the residential district, which is an important part of the supporting facilities of the residential area. Although its investment ratio is small, it has an important influence on every stage of the development of the real estate project. In this paper, the water supply, power supply and gas supply pipeline, which have the greatest impact on the project development, are selected to study, and the construction, management mode and existing problems of the residential municipal pipeline in the past 30 years are briefly described. Based on the analysis of relevant laws and regulations and the current pipeline management model, it is pointed out that the dilemma of property rights caused by the contradiction between them is the main source of risk. According to the basic life cycle theory of the project and the characteristics of the municipal pipeline engineering in the residential area, this paper constructs the stage model, and divides the municipal pipeline engineering of the residential area into three parts: report, contract, construction, etc. Acceptance of the four stages. Using the method of expert interview, selecting experienced real estate development managers to interview, using the case analysis method, selecting five cases to analyze the more typical risk factors; Through the analysis of the process of reporting and loading in the stage of report and loading, the asymmetry of information in the contract stage, the game analysis of the subcontractor's claim, the construction environment in the construction stage, the analysis of the quality problem, and the analysis of the acceptance process in the acceptance stage, the causes of the risk are summarized. Finally, the risk identification list is obtained by synthesizing the above three methods. In the aspect of risk assessment, according to the risk characteristics of municipal pipelines in residential areas, risk occurrence probability and damage consequence are classified, risk rank matrix is constructed and risk ranking is carried out. According to the multidimensional characteristics of risk, the evaluation model is constructed from five angles of imperceptibility, uncontrollability, irreversibility, influence duration and cascade influence. It also provides the basis for the correct management of risk. This paper introduces the common methods of risk response, and establishes the risk response table according to the process and key points of risk response. Based on the theory of dynamic risk management, this paper points out the "migration effect" of risk in the construction of municipal pipelines in residential areas. This paper introduces the key points and common monitoring methods of risk monitoring of municipal pipelines in residential areas. In the construction of municipal pipeline in Yucuishangfu district, a risk management team was set up to carry out risk management according to the risk management process and theory, combined with the characteristics of the project, and to carry out an empirical study and summary of the risk management theory.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TU990.3

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