中国城乡居民预防性储蓄行为研究

发布时间：2018-11-27 18:08

【摘要】：改革开放三十多年，中国经济经历了深刻的变革，显示出如下特点：一是高储蓄率与低消费率并行。二是同一期的经济和居民收入的增长水平要低于储蓄存款的增长速度。三是我国居民消费对GDP的贡献率相对下降。这些现象引起专家学者们的关注，并且试图用预防性储蓄理论来解释这类问题。社会上开始对这些现象十分关注，也有专家学者尝试用预防性储蓄理论来解释这类问题，度量不确定性对储蓄及消费的影响。预防性储蓄理论是生命周期-持久收入模型的修改与补充，同时把收入的不确定性和理性预期引入其中，对消费者为达到效用最大化这一目标，在不同时点上将采取怎样的消费行为进行了分析。本文共分为五个部分。第一部分是导论，阐述了本文的选题背景和意义，对相关文献的综述以及本文的研究方法与结构。中国经济高速发展的同时，储蓄与消费的失衡，人们为了预防未来收入的不确定性而减少消费，增加储蓄，这是本文的选题背景。本文从国外和国内两个方面对相关文献进行综述。第二部分，对预防性储蓄理论和该理论的演化过程做了简要概述，并介绍了4种常见的预防性储蓄模型，分别是Zeldes的预防性储蓄模型、Dynan的预防性储蓄模型、Carroll等的预防性储蓄模型和Guiso等的预防性储蓄模型，对这些模型的模型形式，使用情况及各自特点，分别进行阐述。第三部分，利用城镇、乡村和全国数据，使用计量方法，对这些地方的居民的预防性储蓄动机强度进行估计。采用状态空间模型，对1978-2010年的中国城镇、乡村和全国居民的预防性储蓄强度的时序变化进行实证分析，得出结论：中国城乡居民存在较强的预防性储蓄动机，且乡村高于城镇。第四部分，利用东、中、西部城乡数据，使用计量方法，对这些地方的居民的预防性储蓄动机强度进行估计。使用面板数据模型，对这类地区1995-2010年间中国城镇和农村居民的预防性储蓄强度进行实证分析，得出结论：中国东、中、西部地区都存在较强的预防性储蓄动机。第五部分为政策建议。针对计量结论我国城乡居民存在较强的预防性储蓄动机，分析原因，提出相应政策建议，如建立完善的收入制度、完善养老政策、扩大医疗保险范围、加强房地产价格调控。
[Abstract]:Over 30 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has undergone profound changes, showing the following characteristics: first, high savings rate and low consumption rate parallel. Second, the growth level of economy and resident income in the same period is lower than the growth rate of savings deposits. Third, the contribution rate of resident consumption to GDP is relatively lower. These phenomena have attracted the attention of experts and scholars, and try to explain these problems with precautionary saving theory. The society began to pay close attention to these phenomena and some experts and scholars tried to explain these problems with the precautionary saving theory to measure the influence of uncertainty on savings and consumption. The precautionary saving theory is the modification and supplement of the life-cycle-lasting income model. Meanwhile, the uncertainty and rational expectation of income are introduced to the consumers to achieve the goal of maximizing utility. What kind of consumption behavior will be taken at different time points is analyzed. This paper is divided into five parts. The first part is an introduction, which describes the background and significance of this topic, the review of relevant literature, and the research methods and structure of this paper. With the rapid development of China's economy, the imbalance between savings and consumption, people in order to prevent future income uncertainty and reduce consumption, increase savings, this is the background of this paper. This paper reviews the relevant literature from both foreign and domestic aspects. In the second part, the precautionary savings theory and its evolution are briefly summarized, and four common precautionary savings models are introduced, which are Zeldes's precautionary savings model and Dynan's precautionary savings model. The precautionary savings model of Carroll et al and the precautionary savings model of Guiso et al. In the third part, using urban, rural and national data, the paper estimates the intensity of precautionary saving motivation of residents in these places. By using the state space model, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the time-series changes of the precautionary saving intensity of Chinese urban, rural and national residents from 1978 to 2010, and draws a conclusion that there is a strong precautionary saving motivation in China's urban and rural residents. And the countryside is higher than the town. In the fourth part, using the urban and rural data of east, middle and west, and using the method of measurement, we estimate the intensity of precautionary saving motivation of residents in these places. By using panel data model, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the precautionary saving intensity of urban and rural residents in these areas from 1995 to 2010, and draws a conclusion that there are strong precautionary savings motives in eastern, middle and western China. The fifth part is the policy suggestion. In the light of the measurement conclusion, this paper analyzes the reasons for the strong precautionary saving motivation of urban and rural residents in China, and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions, such as establishing a perfect income system, perfecting the old-age policy, expanding the scope of medical insurance, and strengthening the regulation of real estate prices.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.22

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