西部地区服务业就业效应及其影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-12-07 12:33

【摘要】：近年来，服务业发展迅速，已逐渐成为吸收新增劳动力和剩余劳动力最多的产业。服务业在社会经济中的地位和作用呈不断上升趋势，在经济发展历程中，不断有新的服务部门或项目产生，不断有劳动力或工业中分离出来，转入服务业。对于劳动人口密集的西部地区，提高服务业发展水平、改善就业现状已经成为推动西部地区经济增长方式转变、实现西部崛起、解决民生问题的迫切需要。基于西部十二省的不同的历史背景、经济状况和发展层次，本文以促进西部地区的就业为目的，从西部服务业的发展现状出发，搜集了西部十二省的历史数据，，从结构偏离度和就业弹性角度衡量了西部地区服务业的就业增长空间，然后运用Panel-data模型分析了投资、产值规模、技术进步、城市化率和工资对西部服务业各行业就业的影响，实证结果显示：一、西部地区服务业发展与经济增长、结构优化呈现一致性。从西部服务业的产生和发展历程来看，它与国民经济的发展是融为一体、不可割裂的。社会生产和人们的生活消费对服务经济产生了更多的需求，城镇化、工业化进程中被排挤出的劳动力迫切需要转入服务业；二、迅速发展的服务业将成为西部吸纳就业的重要渠道。西部地区服务业的就业比重上升趋势明显，上升幅度最大，并且已经超过中部水平，就业弹性加大，成为西部地区吸纳劳动力的主要渠道；从服务业内部各行业来看，就业吸收能力最强的依次是房地产业、金融业、住宿餐饮业，主要是近年来西部地区的房地产业的快速发展为就业人员的进入提供了良好契机，而批发零售业由于受到开放条件的限制，则对就业仍存在明显的挤出效应；三、西部地区服务业的就业效应受到城市化、技术进步、经济发展、工资和投资五大因素的影响。尤其是城市化水平对就业人数的增加起到非常显著的推动作用，技术进步对劳动力产生的吸入效应大于挤出效应，产生较大的正影响；每一因素对不同行业的影响程度不相同，这五大因素对大部分行业的影响都显著为正，其中对租赁服务业和房地产的正影响最大，对批发零售业的负影响最大，而对交通运输、仓储、邮政业和文化、体育娱乐业的影响不显著。在上述分析的基础上，本文对如何发展西部地区服务业以促进就业提出了简要的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the service industry has developed rapidly and has gradually become the industry that absorbs the most new labor force and surplus labor force. The status and function of service industry in social economy is on the rise. In the course of economic development, new service departments or projects are produced, labor force or industry is separated and transferred to service industry. For the western region with dense labor population, it has become an urgent need to improve the development level of service industry and improve the present employment situation of the western region in order to promote the transformation of economic growth mode in the western region, realize the rise of the western region, and solve the problems of people's livelihood. Based on the different historical background, economic situation and development level of the twelve provinces in the west, this paper, with the aim of promoting employment in the western region, sets out from the present situation of the service industry in the west, collects the historical data of the twelve provinces in the west. From the angle of structural deviation and employment elasticity, this paper measures the employment growth space of the service industry in the western region, and then analyzes the investment, output value scale and technological progress by using Panel-data model. The effect of urbanization rate and wage on the employment of service industries in western China. The empirical results show that the development of service industry in western China is consistent with economic growth and structural optimization. From the emergence and development of western service industry, it is integrated with the development of national economy. Social production and people's living consumption produce more demand to service economy, the labor force which is squeezed out in the process of urbanization and industrialization needs to be transferred to service industry urgently. Second, the rapidly developing service industry will become an important channel to absorb employment in the western region. The employment proportion of the service industry in the western region is increasing obviously, and the increase is the largest, and it has already exceeded the central level, and the employment elasticity has increased, which has become the main channel to absorb the labor force in the western region. From the point of view of various industries within the service industry, the strongest absorptive capacity of employment is the real estate industry, the financial industry, the accommodation and catering industry, mainly the rapid development of the real estate industry in the western region in recent years, which has provided a good opportunity for the entry of the employed persons. However, the wholesale and retail trade is restricted by the open conditions, so there is still an obvious crowding out effect on employment. Third, the employment effect of service industry in western China is affected by five factors: urbanization, technological progress, economic development, wages and investment. In particular, the urbanization level plays a very significant role in promoting the increase of the number of employed people. The suction effect of technological progress on the labor force is greater than that of the extrusion effect, which has a larger positive impact. The impact of each factor on different industries is different. These five factors have a significant positive impact on most industries. Among them, the positive impact on rental services and real estate is the greatest, the negative impact on wholesale and retail is the greatest, and the impact on transportation is the greatest. The effects of warehousing, post office and culture, sports and entertainment are not significant. On the basis of the above analysis, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to develop the service industry in western China to promote employment.
【学位授予单位】：重庆工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F719;F249.21

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