宏观调控下房地产业的社会就业效应研究
发布时间：2018-12-14 20:38
【摘要】：在经济全球化背景之下，国家之间的经济联系越来越紧密。如何实现我国经济的稳定增长与失业率的进一步降低，这些都是政府在当下与未来值得考虑的问题。这些问题的有效解决关系到我国经济与社会的稳定发展。 房地产业作为国民经济中的重要产业，产业链长，关联性强，如何促使其健康成长对于国民经济的发展与就业增长具有重要的意义，但是房地产业在这几十年的发展之中跌宕起伏。在这种发展经历的背后是政府出台的各种房地产宏观调控政策。通过这些政策的调控，高涨的房价在短期内得到了一定的控制，，但是这些政策是否会带来其他的社会负面效应，这个问题值得我们思考。 本文从房地产业社会就业效应方面，分析了政府宏观调控下房地产业引起的社会就业效应的变化。首先收集了历年房地产业产值与就业人数的统计数据，然后通过运用就业产量弹性模型测算出了房地产业的直接就业效应，其次以2010年、2007年、2005年、2002年四年的投入产出表为基础，运用投入产出模型，测算出了房地产业的间接就业效应。同时，在宏观调控下，进行了房地产业就业效应的区域动态比较。这部分主要运用了投入产出模型与2002年与2007年东、中、西部地区9个省或直辖市的投入产出表，测算出了各个省或直辖市的房地产业在这两年的社会就业综合效应。最后，本文提出了解决当前房地产过热与就业难双重问题的对策与建议。 本文的主要结论与观点： 1、房地产业在不同阶段、不同区域的就业效应有了量化结果 从全国角度测算出，房地产业的直接社会就业效应为47.19%。在2002年-2010年，房地产业间接就业效应在26.53%-39.63%之间，总就业效应超过74%。从区域的角度测算，在2002年本文所选的东部三省房地产的就业效应都超过了100%，中部地区的三省接近90%，西部地区相对比较少，在70%-80%之间。 2、宏观调控对房地产业就业效应的影响程度有了明确结论并作出深入分析。 从2002年到2005年房地产业总就业效应下降了7.09%，到2007年又下降了5.23%，这种变化的主要原因在于政府在2005年-2007年出台的一系列房地产业发展限制政策，目的在于解决2002年以来的房地产发展过热问题；从2007年到2010年总就业效应增加了1.86%，出现这种上升的主要原因在于，政府出台的一些刺激房地产业发展的政策，目的是为了缓解全球经济危机的影响。从以上的分析中可以看出政府的宏观调控对于房地产业的就业效应具有较大的影响，但是这种影响同时表现出了一定的区域差异性，从本文测算的结果可以看出，在经济较发达的东部地区，房地产业政策对就业的影响较大，如在2002-2007年，北京地区，房地产业的社会就业总效应下降大约30%，上海地区，下降大约25%。而中部地区的三个省与西部地区的三个省，房地产业的社会就业总效应下降总体来看接近4%。总之，房地产业宏观调控政策对于社会就业效应的影响体现出了区域差异，但这种影响主要集中于北、上、广等一线城市，对于中西部经济欠发达地区影响较小。
[Abstract]:In the context of economic globalization, the economic ties between countries are becoming more and more tight. How to realize the steady growth of our economy and the further reduction of the unemployment rate are the problems that the government is worth considering in the present and the future. The effective solution of these problems is the stable development of our country's economy and society. The real estate industry, as an important industry in the national economy, has long industrial chain and strong correlation, and how to promote the healthy growth of the real estate is of great significance to the development of the national economy and the growth of employment, but the real estate industry has fallen in the development of these decades V. Behind the development of this development is the government's various real estate macro-control policies The high rate of housing prices has been controlled in the short term through the regulation of these policies, but whether these policies will bring about other social negative effects is worth our consideration. The paper analyses the social employment effect of the real estate industry under the macro-control of the government from the aspects of the social employment effect of the real estate industry. The change of the real estate value and the employment of the real estate is first collected, then the direct employment effect of the real estate industry is calculated by using the elasticity model of the employment yield, and then the input-output table of the real estate industry is based on the input-output table of four years in 2010, 2007, 2005 and 2002. The model is calculated and the indirect relation of the real estate industry is calculated At the same time, under the macro-control, the regional movement of the real estate employment effect is carried out This part mainly uses the input-output model and the input-output table of 9 provinces or municipalities directly under the Central Government in the east, middle and western regions in 2002 and 2007, and calculates the social employment of the real estate of the provinces or municipalities directly under the Central Government in these two years Finally, this paper puts forward the countermeasures to solve the double problems of the current real estate's overheating and employment and suggestions. The main contents of this paper Conclusion and Viewpoints: 1. The employment of real estate in different stages and different areas The effect has been quantified, and the direct social employment of the real estate industry is calculated from the national perspective The effect was 47. 19%. In 2002-2010, the indirect employment effect of real estate was between 26. 53% and 39. 63%. The employment effect is more than 74%. From the angle of the region, the employment effect of the real estate in the eastern three provinces selected by this article in 2002 is more than 100%, the three provinces in the central region are close to 90%, the western region is relatively small, between 70 and 80%, the effect of macro-control on the employment effect of the real estate industry is From 2002 to 2005, the total employment effect of real estate decreased by 7. 09%, and by 5.23% in 2007, the main reason for this change is the series of real estate development restriction policies introduced by the government in 2005-2007, with the aim of solving the problem of 2002 The problem of real estate development since the year has increased by 1. 86% from 2007 to 2010. The main reason for this rise is that some of the government's policies to stimulate the development of the real estate industry are aimed at In order to mitigate the impact of the global economic crisis, it can be seen from the above analysis that the macro-control of the government has a great effect on the employment effect of the real estate industry, but this effect shows some regional differences. In the eastern part of the economy, the effect of real estate policy on employment is relatively large, as in the area of 2002-2007, the total effect of social employment of real estate in Beijing is about 30%. In the Shanghai area, it is about 25%, while the three provinces in the central region and the three provinces in the western region and the real estate industry are in social employment. In general, the effect of the macro-control of the real estate industry on the social employment effect shows the regional difference, but the effect mainly focuses on the first-line cities such as the north, the upper, the wide and the like.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F249.2
本文编号：2379282
[Abstract]:In the context of economic globalization, the economic ties between countries are becoming more and more tight. How to realize the steady growth of our economy and the further reduction of the unemployment rate are the problems that the government is worth considering in the present and the future. The effective solution of these problems is the stable development of our country's economy and society. The real estate industry, as an important industry in the national economy, has long industrial chain and strong correlation, and how to promote the healthy growth of the real estate is of great significance to the development of the national economy and the growth of employment, but the real estate industry has fallen in the development of these decades V. Behind the development of this development is the government's various real estate macro-control policies The high rate of housing prices has been controlled in the short term through the regulation of these policies, but whether these policies will bring about other social negative effects is worth our consideration. The paper analyses the social employment effect of the real estate industry under the macro-control of the government from the aspects of the social employment effect of the real estate industry. The change of the real estate value and the employment of the real estate is first collected, then the direct employment effect of the real estate industry is calculated by using the elasticity model of the employment yield, and then the input-output table of the real estate industry is based on the input-output table of four years in 2010, 2007, 2005 and 2002. The model is calculated and the indirect relation of the real estate industry is calculated At the same time, under the macro-control, the regional movement of the real estate employment effect is carried out This part mainly uses the input-output model and the input-output table of 9 provinces or municipalities directly under the Central Government in the east, middle and western regions in 2002 and 2007, and calculates the social employment of the real estate of the provinces or municipalities directly under the Central Government in these two years Finally, this paper puts forward the countermeasures to solve the double problems of the current real estate's overheating and employment and suggestions. The main contents of this paper Conclusion and Viewpoints: 1. The employment of real estate in different stages and different areas The effect has been quantified, and the direct social employment of the real estate industry is calculated from the national perspective The effect was 47. 19%. In 2002-2010, the indirect employment effect of real estate was between 26. 53% and 39. 63%. The employment effect is more than 74%. From the angle of the region, the employment effect of the real estate in the eastern three provinces selected by this article in 2002 is more than 100%, the three provinces in the central region are close to 90%, the western region is relatively small, between 70 and 80%, the effect of macro-control on the employment effect of the real estate industry is From 2002 to 2005, the total employment effect of real estate decreased by 7. 09%, and by 5.23% in 2007, the main reason for this change is the series of real estate development restriction policies introduced by the government in 2005-2007, with the aim of solving the problem of 2002 The problem of real estate development since the year has increased by 1. 86% from 2007 to 2010. The main reason for this rise is that some of the government's policies to stimulate the development of the real estate industry are aimed at In order to mitigate the impact of the global economic crisis, it can be seen from the above analysis that the macro-control of the government has a great effect on the employment effect of the real estate industry, but this effect shows some regional differences. In the eastern part of the economy, the effect of real estate policy on employment is relatively large, as in the area of 2002-2007, the total effect of social employment of real estate in Beijing is about 30%. In the Shanghai area, it is about 25%, while the three provinces in the central region and the three provinces in the western region and the real estate industry are in social employment. In general, the effect of the macro-control of the real estate industry on the social employment effect shows the regional difference, but the effect mainly focuses on the first-line cities such as the north, the upper, the wide and the like.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F249.2
【引证文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 董磊;;论和谐社会下房地产业与房地产经济[J];现代商贸工业;2015年23期
本文编号：2379282
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