土地批租制下房地产资产价值及其市场风险研究

发布时间：2019-02-12 10:08

【摘要】：土地批租制下商品房资产价值中所含的土地使用权价值小于其资产内在价值,且随出让年限减少而逐年递减直至出让期限届满时归零。本文通过出让土地使用权价值变化规律分析,揭示商品房资产价值前期在经济因素作用下背离其基础价值上涨、后期受使用权剩余年限制约快速贬值直至期限届满时趋零的运行轨迹与机理,并分析土地使用权"剩余年限当量"变化对商品房市场资产价值的影响,发现出让土地供应增量递减会加快商品房市场资产贬值;基于2003—2011年省际面板数据的实证研究表明,由经济基本面决定的商品房均衡价格不受土地使用权剩余年限制约,存在背离其资产价值持续上涨趋势,表明中国房地产市场存在系统性风险。本文认为,以年租制取代批租制,可以改变出让土地商品房资产价值构成,抑制市场价格非理性上涨趋势,从根本上消除商品房市场价格与资产价值背离的系统性风险,同时使以商品房历年评估价格为基数征收房地产税更具法理基础。
[Abstract]:Under the system of land lease, the value of land use right contained in the value of commercial housing assets is less than the intrinsic value of its assets, and decreases year by year with the decline of the years of assignment until the expiration of the term of transfer to zero. By analyzing the changing law of the value of land use right, this paper reveals that the value of commercial housing assets in the early stage deviates from its basic value under the action of economic factors. The running path and mechanism of the rapid depreciation until the expiration of the term, and the influence of the change of "surplus life equivalent" of the land use right on the property value of the commercial housing market are analyzed. It is found that the decline of land supply increment will accelerate the depreciation of commercial housing market assets; The empirical research based on inter-provincial panel data from 2003 to 2011 shows that the equilibrium price of commercial housing determined by economic fundamentals is not restricted by the remaining years of land use right, and there is a trend of rising from its asset value. This indicates that there are systemic risks in China's real estate market. This paper holds that the annual rent system can change the composition of the asset value of the land sold commercial house, restrain the irrational rising trend of the market price, and eliminate the systematic risk of the deviation between the market price and the asset value of the commercial housing market. At the same time to commodity housing assessment price as the base for the collection of real estate tax more legal basis.
【作者单位】：浙江工商大学金融学院;
【分类号】：F299.23

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