差额租售比显示房价合理性的区域比较
发布时间：2019-03-07 17:27
【摘要】：在房价持续“高企”,房地产调控新政频频出台的背景下,有对房地产泡沫破灭硬着陆的担忧,也有对房价在供需推动下持续上涨的投资期待。房价是否能够被基本面因素解释,房价是否合理是市场争论的焦点。 本文从房价与租金间的关系出发,以区域房价合理性评估为主要研究对象,通过对搜房网上的数据进行采样与整理,形成了重庆、成都的市区内各片区组成的两个城市的横截面房价、租金相关数据。以房价、租金关系为核心展开分析；针对房价合理性的区域比较问题；首先以DCF模型和租售比概念为基础,应用土地价格动力学模型和增长极理论,提出了对租售比概念的改进,引申出差额租售比模型和超越价值的概念,并将模型限制在横截面数据下有条件地使用。然后针对重庆、成都的各片区的房价、租金数据,在横截面上应用差额租售比模型分别得出重庆、成都的城市区域的差额租售比、超越价值；通过样本点对回归曲线的偏离程度判定各片区样本点房价的合理性。通过参数逆推法,推断差额租售比模型参数中蕴含着的市场宏观经济预期；根据市场宏观经济预期的合理性去判断房价的合理性。根据这样的思路,比较分析了成都、重庆地区的房价合理性。 研究表明,成渝地区的横截面数据均显示出该片区的边际租金、房价关系的决策中市场保持着偏悲观的预期,而对于房价整体而言却保持着对房屋产权持有的过于强烈的需求。差额租售比模型揭示出了房地产市场的边际行为反应出的当前市场预期是过于悲观的；然而对于超越价值的追逐却支撑着房价；最终二者矛盾的结果就是在整体上使得房价与租金的关系保持着接近市场稳定的水平。对此,政府需要一方面稳定市场对于经济前景的预期,避免市场情绪过于悲观；另一方面需要降低房屋产权的附属社会意义,使得房屋产权与户口脱钩,让户口与特权福利脱钩,让房屋回归其居住职能。
[Abstract]:In the context of the persistent "high" housing prices and the frequent introduction of new policies for real estate regulation and control, there are concerns about a hard landing of the bursting of the real estate bubble, as well as investment expectations for sustained increases in housing prices driven by supply and demand. Whether the housing price can be explained by the fundamental factors, whether the price is reasonable is the focus of the market debate. Starting from the relationship between house price and rent, this paper takes the rationality evaluation of regional house price as the main research object, and through sampling and sorting out the data of the search house network, forms Chongqing. The cross-sectional house price and rent data of the two cities in the urban area of Chengdu. Taking the relationship between house price and rent as the core, this paper analyzes the regional comparison of the rationality of house price. Firstly, based on the DCF model and the concept of rent-to-sale ratio, applying the dynamic model of land price and the theory of growth pole, this paper puts forward the improvement of the concept of rent-to-sale ratio, and extends the concept of differential rent-to-sale ratio model and the concept of exceeding value. The model is restricted to conditional use under cross-sectional data. Then according to the data of house price and rent in Chongqing and Chengdu, the difference rent-to-sale ratio model is applied in cross-section to get the difference rent-to-sale ratio of Chongqing and Chengdu, which exceeds the value. Through the deviation degree of sample point to regression curve, the rationality of house price of sample point in each area is judged. The paper deduces the market macro-economic expectation contained in the parameter of the differential rent-sale ratio model by using the parameter inversion method and judges the rationality of the house price according to the rationality of the market macro-economic expectation. According to this train of thought, this paper compares and analyzes the rationality of house price in Chengdu and Chongqing. The research shows that the cross-sectional data of Chengdu-Chongqing region show the marginal rent of the area, the market maintains a pessimistic expectation in the decision-making of house price relationship, but for the whole house price, the demand for housing property right is too strong. The differential rent-to-sale ratio model reveals that the marginal behavior of the real estate market reflects that the current market expectations are too pessimistic, however, the pursuit of exceeding the value of the real estate market supports the housing price; The final result of the contradiction is to keep the relationship between house price and rent close to the stable level of the market. On the one hand, the government needs to stabilize market expectations for economic prospects, to avoid market sentiment is too pessimistic; On the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the social significance of the housing property right, to make the housing property right decouple from the household registration, to make the hukou decouple from the privileged welfare, and to let the house return to its living function.
【学位授予单位】：重庆师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23
本文编号：2436306
[Abstract]:In the context of the persistent "high" housing prices and the frequent introduction of new policies for real estate regulation and control, there are concerns about a hard landing of the bursting of the real estate bubble, as well as investment expectations for sustained increases in housing prices driven by supply and demand. Whether the housing price can be explained by the fundamental factors, whether the price is reasonable is the focus of the market debate. Starting from the relationship between house price and rent, this paper takes the rationality evaluation of regional house price as the main research object, and through sampling and sorting out the data of the search house network, forms Chongqing. The cross-sectional house price and rent data of the two cities in the urban area of Chengdu. Taking the relationship between house price and rent as the core, this paper analyzes the regional comparison of the rationality of house price. Firstly, based on the DCF model and the concept of rent-to-sale ratio, applying the dynamic model of land price and the theory of growth pole, this paper puts forward the improvement of the concept of rent-to-sale ratio, and extends the concept of differential rent-to-sale ratio model and the concept of exceeding value. The model is restricted to conditional use under cross-sectional data. Then according to the data of house price and rent in Chongqing and Chengdu, the difference rent-to-sale ratio model is applied in cross-section to get the difference rent-to-sale ratio of Chongqing and Chengdu, which exceeds the value. Through the deviation degree of sample point to regression curve, the rationality of house price of sample point in each area is judged. The paper deduces the market macro-economic expectation contained in the parameter of the differential rent-sale ratio model by using the parameter inversion method and judges the rationality of the house price according to the rationality of the market macro-economic expectation. According to this train of thought, this paper compares and analyzes the rationality of house price in Chengdu and Chongqing. The research shows that the cross-sectional data of Chengdu-Chongqing region show the marginal rent of the area, the market maintains a pessimistic expectation in the decision-making of house price relationship, but for the whole house price, the demand for housing property right is too strong. The differential rent-to-sale ratio model reveals that the marginal behavior of the real estate market reflects that the current market expectations are too pessimistic, however, the pursuit of exceeding the value of the real estate market supports the housing price; The final result of the contradiction is to keep the relationship between house price and rent close to the stable level of the market. On the one hand, the government needs to stabilize market expectations for economic prospects, to avoid market sentiment is too pessimistic; On the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the social significance of the housing property right, to make the housing property right decouple from the household registration, to make the hukou decouple from the privileged welfare, and to let the house return to its living function.
【学位授予单位】：重庆师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23
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