基于房地产市场的货币政策调控效应分析
发布时间：2019-04-21 08:38
【摘要】：从1998年我国实施住房制度改革以来，压抑多年的刚性需求直接爆发，导致房地产市场价格飙升。到了21世纪初，我国房地产市场中不论是新房还是二手房，均呈现出量价齐升的局面。土地财政成为推动地方经济发展的重要因素，同时也推升了银行等金融行业资产规模和业绩同步攀升。房地产的繁荣，超过了一般居民的承受能力，直接影响其消费能力。国家有关当局发现了上述问题，并在2003年从财政和货币层面适时推出了一系列调控措施，旨在抑制房地产市场的过度膨胀。在货币超发、人民币升值和房地产价格上升预期等因素作用下，我国房地产价格依然维持在高位，紧缩性货币政策实施的效果大打折扣。有效的货币政策传导机制是确保货币政策成功实施的基础，究竟是货币超发，还是非理性预期导致当前的房地产价格居高不下，此时审视我国房地产价格变化与货币政策传导机制之间的关系，无论是理论上还是现实层面，都具有显著意义。 在结构安排方面，本论文首先介绍了国内外研究的概况，，并对其进行了评述，然后阐述了我国房地产市场发展现状及其存在问题。在剖析现象的基础上，从理论层面分析货币政策与房地产价格之间的关系，以及房地产对实体经济的影响。在实证分析环节，本文运用VAR检验货币政策对房地产价格的影响以及房地产价格波动对实体经济的影响。本文的研究表明：货币政策的变化能影响房地产价格，在各种货币政策变量中，从短期调控效果来看，货币供应量这个手段比利率工具更好，并且由于利率政策存在显著的时滞，在政策出台初期，利率变化和房地产价格变化方向表现出一致性。 从文中的分析来看，我国货币政策调控影响房地产价格，进而传递到实体经济层面。总体来看，货币政策虽然在一定程度上对房地产价格能起到调控作用，但效果不太理想。为此，本文从房地产市场参与主体角度，分析房地产价格调控机制中存在的阻碍因素，对政策制定者及参与者提出建议，力求维持我国房地产市场的持续健康发展。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing system was carried out in 1998, the rigid demand has been suppressed for many years, which caused the price of real estate market to soar. At the beginning of the 21 ~ (st) century, both new and second-hand housing in the real estate market of our country show the situation of volume-price rising. Land finance has become an important factor in promoting local economic development, but also pushed up the size of assets and performance in the financial sector such as banks. The prosperity of real estate, more than the ability of ordinary residents to bear, directly affect their consumption capacity. The state authorities discovered the problem and in 2003 introduced a series of fiscal and monetary controls aimed at curbing the over-expansion of the real estate market. Under the influence of currency overshoot, appreciation of RMB and rising expectation of real estate price, the real estate price of our country remains high, and the effect of tightening monetary policy is greatly reduced. An effective monetary policy transmission mechanism is the basis to ensure the successful implementation of monetary policy, whether currency overshoot, or irrational expectations lead to the current high real estate prices. It is significant to examine the relationship between the change of real estate price and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, both in theory and in reality. In the aspect of structure arrangement, this paper firstly introduces the general situation of domestic and foreign research, and comments on it, then expounds the present situation and existing problems of the real estate market development in our country. On the basis of analyzing the phenomenon, this paper analyzes the relationship between monetary policy and real estate price, and the influence of real estate on real economy. In the part of empirical analysis, this paper uses VAR to test the influence of monetary policy on real estate price and the effect of real estate price fluctuation on real economy. The research in this paper shows that the change of monetary policy can affect the price of real estate. In all kinds of monetary policy variables, money supply is better than the interest rate instrument in terms of the short-term regulation effect. And because of the significant time lag of interest rate policy, the change of interest rate and the direction of real estate price change are consistent in the early stage of the policy. From the analysis in this paper, China's monetary policy affects the real estate price, and then transfers to the real economy level. Overall, although monetary policy to a certain extent can play a regulatory role in real estate prices, but the effect is not ideal. Therefore, from the perspective of the participants in the real estate market, this paper analyzes the obstacles existing in the mechanism of real estate price regulation and puts forward some suggestions to the policy makers and participants in order to maintain the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market in China.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0
本文编号：2462022
[Abstract]:Since the reform of housing system was carried out in 1998, the rigid demand has been suppressed for many years, which caused the price of real estate market to soar. At the beginning of the 21 ~ (st) century, both new and second-hand housing in the real estate market of our country show the situation of volume-price rising. Land finance has become an important factor in promoting local economic development, but also pushed up the size of assets and performance in the financial sector such as banks. The prosperity of real estate, more than the ability of ordinary residents to bear, directly affect their consumption capacity. The state authorities discovered the problem and in 2003 introduced a series of fiscal and monetary controls aimed at curbing the over-expansion of the real estate market. Under the influence of currency overshoot, appreciation of RMB and rising expectation of real estate price, the real estate price of our country remains high, and the effect of tightening monetary policy is greatly reduced. An effective monetary policy transmission mechanism is the basis to ensure the successful implementation of monetary policy, whether currency overshoot, or irrational expectations lead to the current high real estate prices. It is significant to examine the relationship between the change of real estate price and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, both in theory and in reality. In the aspect of structure arrangement, this paper firstly introduces the general situation of domestic and foreign research, and comments on it, then expounds the present situation and existing problems of the real estate market development in our country. On the basis of analyzing the phenomenon, this paper analyzes the relationship between monetary policy and real estate price, and the influence of real estate on real economy. In the part of empirical analysis, this paper uses VAR to test the influence of monetary policy on real estate price and the effect of real estate price fluctuation on real economy. The research in this paper shows that the change of monetary policy can affect the price of real estate. In all kinds of monetary policy variables, money supply is better than the interest rate instrument in terms of the short-term regulation effect. And because of the significant time lag of interest rate policy, the change of interest rate and the direction of real estate price change are consistent in the early stage of the policy. From the analysis in this paper, China's monetary policy affects the real estate price, and then transfers to the real economy level. Overall, although monetary policy to a certain extent can play a regulatory role in real estate prices, but the effect is not ideal. Therefore, from the perspective of the participants in the real estate market, this paper analyzes the obstacles existing in the mechanism of real estate price regulation and puts forward some suggestions to the policy makers and participants in order to maintain the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market in China.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F822.0
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本文编号：2462022
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