三亚洲际酒店配套海洋旅游项目风险控制研究

发布时间：2018-02-22 10:06

本文关键词： 海洋旅游项目风险控制德尔菲法层次分析法模糊综合评价法　出处：《中国海洋大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来，三亚在迅猛发展的经济中不断融入现代化的科技和全新的观念，仅凭传统旅游资源已经不能充分满足现代旅游者的需求。作为旅游资源的重要补充和现代旅游产品的一个重要类型，海洋旅游项目的开发将为三亚旅游业注入新的活力。同时，海洋环境的复杂性和气候的多变性对海洋旅游项目的开发产生了巨大挑战，对风险管理也有了更高的要求。另外，我国海洋旅游项目风险管理的理论体系尚未形成，因此对海洋旅游项目风险管理进行研究具有一定的理论价值和实际意义。本文以三亚洲际酒店配套海洋旅游项目为研究对象，沿着从理论到方法，到实证，到实践的思路展开研究。首先介绍了研究的背景与意义并进行了相关综述，确定了研究内容与方法；接着对风险控制的相关理论基础进行了阐述，对项目风险控制的内容、重要性以及实施方法等做了详细的论证；然后对三亚洲际度假酒店配套海洋旅游项目中工程做了相应描述，根据风险识别与风险分析的有关理论，针对海洋旅游项目的特点，利用德尔菲法对三亚洲际酒店配套海洋项目进行风险识别，，得出项目最重要的风险因素有五种，分别是经济风险、管理风险、自然风险、社会风险、技术风险。接着利用德尔菲法确定了15项影响该项目的风险因素对项目进行系统的风险分析，构建三亚洲际酒店配套海洋旅游风险评价的指标体系，利用层次分析法和模糊综合评价两种方法对项目进行了综合评价，并最终得到该项目的风险水平处于可以接受的中等水平，但是仍然存在国民经济状况变动、自然灾害风险、项目建设材料变更、项目参与人员变动、政策变动性这几种重点风险因素。最后根据风险评价结果，结合项目的实际情况，提出了三亚洲际酒店配套海洋旅游项目的风险监控手段和针对具体风险的应对措施，以期望将海洋旅游项目的风险降到最低水平，从而保证项目的顺利实施。本文的创新点是在借鉴国内外关于可行性研究资料的基础上，对三亚洲际酒店配套海洋旅游工程项目开发应用进行风险控制理论分析，以此来验证三亚洲际酒店配套海洋旅游工程项目风险可控性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Sanya has continuously integrated modern science and technology and new ideas into its rapidly developing economy. As an important supplement of tourism resources and an important type of modern tourism products, the development of marine tourism projects will inject new vitality into the tourism industry of Sanya. The complexity of marine environment and the variability of climate have brought great challenges to the development of marine tourism projects and higher requirements for risk management. In addition, the theoretical system of risk management of marine tourism projects in China has not yet been formed. Therefore, the research on the risk management of marine tourism project has certain theoretical value and practical significance. This paper takes Continental Hotel as the research object, and carries out the research along the train of thought from theory to method, to demonstration, to practice. Firstly, it introduces the background and significance of the research and makes a related summary. The research contents and methods are determined, then the related theoretical basis of risk control is expounded, and the contents, importance and implementation methods of project risk control are demonstrated in detail. Then, the paper describes the project of Sanya Holiday Inn Express Amsterdam-Sloterdijk Station supporting marine tourism project. According to the theory of risk identification and risk analysis, according to the characteristics of marine tourism project, By using Delphi method to identify the risk of Continental Hotel ocean project in Sanya, it is concluded that the most important risk factors are economic risk, management risk, natural risk and social risk. Then using Delphi method to determine 15 risk factors affecting the project to carry out systematic risk analysis of the project, and to construct the evaluation index system of the sea tourism risk in Continental Hotel, Sanya. The AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods are used to evaluate the project. Finally, the risk level of the project is at an acceptable medium level, but there are still changes in the national economic situation and the risk of natural disasters. The project construction materials change, the project participants change, the policy change these key risk factors. Finally, according to the risk evaluation results, combined with the actual situation of the project, The paper puts forward the measures of risk monitoring and control of the supporting marine tourism project of Continental Hotel in Sanya and the countermeasures against the specific risks in order to reduce the risk of the marine tourism project to the lowest level in order to ensure the smooth implementation of the project. The innovation of this paper is to analyze the risk control theory for the development and application of the supporting marine tourism project of Continental Hotel in Sanya on the basis of drawing lessons from the domestic and foreign feasibility study data. In order to verify the Sanya Continental Hotel supporting marine tourism project risk controllability.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F719;F592.7;F224

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