新疆服务业生产率的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-16 05:59

本文选题：新疆 + 服务业　；参考：《新疆财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：发展服务业（第三产业），是遵循经济发展与结构演变一般规律、实现国民经济持续协调发展的必然选择。近年来，发达国家服务业产值已经占到了国民经济的60%-70%，服务业已经成为了经济增长的新引擎。2002年党的十六大报告中明确指出:“加快发展现代服务业，提高第三产业在国民经济中的比重”。事实上，自从改革开放以来，新疆服务业获得了较大的发展，已经形成了“二三一”的产业结构，表现在服务业总量不断提升，占国民经济的比重不断增加，服务业就业比重逐年递增，但是我们不能仅仅只是关注服务业的增长速度问题，还应该分析这种增长背后更深层次的问题，这就涉及到服务业的生产率问题。本文第三章利用新疆服务业1978-2012年间数据，通过估算新疆服务业历年资本存量，运用CES生产函数分析了新疆服务业资本和劳动要素的产出弹性及边际生产力的变动趋势，发现资本产出弹性呈现下降趋势，劳动的产出弹性则逐年递增；资本的单要素生产率先递增后递减，劳动的单要素生产率逐年递增；资本的边际生产力在略微上升之后逐年下降，而劳动的边际生产力则呈现递增状态，且上升速度在逐年加快。第四章利用索洛余值法分析了新疆服务业的资本、劳动贡献率、全要素贡献率以及全要素生产率，发现从平均值来看：资本贡献率水平最高，劳动贡献率略高于全要素贡献率，资本贡献率呈现波动上升趋势，劳动贡献率的变化相对稳定，全要素贡献率和全要素生产率则处于波动下降趋势。第五章利用非参数方法测算了时间序列的新疆服务业总的生产率状况，并对经济发展水平、工业发展水平、城市化水平、人力资本水平及服务业发展水平对服务业生产率的影响作出具体分析，发现：经济发展水平可以促进服务业生产率提升，而工业化水平则没有显示出对服务业生产率的促进，工业的发展并没有产生对服务业的消费需求，城市化水平这一影响因素对服务业生产率具有促进作用，人力资本水平也没有对服务业生产率起到促进作用，服务业发展水平则有显著的促进作用。第六章通过计算新疆服务业分行业的投入产出数据，，利用Malmquist指数法测算了新疆服务业分行业的生产率的变动情况并作出比较分析。第七章得出主要结论，提出存在问题并在此基础上提出了促进服务业生产率的对策建议。从政策支持、科研投入、要素投入、人力资本、工业化、城市化等方面提出了促进服务业生产率的对策。
[Abstract]:The development of service industry (tertiary industry) is an inevitable choice to follow the general law of economic development and structural evolution and to realize the sustainable and coordinated development of national economy. In recent years, the output value of the service industry in developed countries has accounted for 60% -70% of the national economy, and the service industry has become a new engine of economic growth. In the report of the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2002, it was clearly pointed out: "speeding up the development of the modern service industry, We will increase the proportion of the tertiary industry in the national economy. " As a matter of fact, since the reform and opening up, the service industry in Xinjiang has achieved great development and has formed the industrial structure of "two three one", which is manifested in the continuous increase in the total amount of the service industry and its increasing proportion in the national economy. The proportion of employment in the service industry is increasing year by year, but we should not only pay attention to the growth rate of the service industry, but also analyze the deeper problems behind this growth, which involves the productivity of the service industry. In the third chapter, by using the data of Xinjiang service industry from 1978 to 2012, by estimating the stock of capital in Xinjiang service industry in the past years, we use the CES production function to analyze the output elasticity and the trend of marginal productivity of the capital and labor elements of service industry in Xinjiang. It is found that the elasticity of capital output is decreasing, the output elasticity of labor is increasing year by year, the production of single factor of capital is increasing first and then decreasing, and the productivity of single factor of labor is increasing year by year. The marginal productivity of capital decreases year by year, but the marginal productivity of labor increases year by year. The fourth chapter analyzes the capital, labor contribution rate, total factor contribution rate and total factor productivity of Xinjiang service industry by using Solow residual value method. It is found that the capital contribution rate is the highest, and the labor contribution rate is slightly higher than the total factor contribution rate. The capital contribution rate is increasing, the labor contribution rate is relatively stable, and the total factor contribution rate and total factor productivity are in the fluctuating trend. The fifth chapter uses non-parametric method to estimate the total productivity of Xinjiang service industry in time series, and analyzes the level of economic development, the level of industrial development, and the level of urbanization. The influence of human capital level and service industry development level on service industry productivity is analyzed in detail. It is found that economic development level can promote service industry productivity, but industrialization level does not promote service industry productivity. The development of industry has not produced the consumption demand to the service industry, the influence factor of the urbanization level has promoted the service industry productivity, the human capital level has not played the promotion function to the service industry productivity, The level of development of the service industry has a significant role in promoting. The sixth chapter calculates the input-output data of the service industry in Xinjiang and uses Malmquist index method to calculate the productivity change of the service industry in Xinjiang and make a comparative analysis. The seventh chapter draws the main conclusions, puts forward the existing problems and puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the productivity of the service industry. From the aspects of policy support, scientific research input, factor input, human capital, industrialization, urbanization and so on, this paper puts forward some countermeasures to promote service industry productivity.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F719

【相似文献】