加入WTO后中国第三产业增速变缓的原因解析

发布时间：2018-06-23 11:33

本文选题：加入WTO + 第三产业贡献率　；参考：《世界经济研究》2012年11期

【摘要】：本文首先通过数据和事实证明了加入WTO对中国产业发展的影响与库兹涅茨事实矛盾,突出表现为第三产业贡献率的增速变缓,同时,衡量产业结构变动的Moore值变小,第二产业的增速超过了第三产业,并且越是经济发达和人均收入高的地区,第三产业占比的增长越慢。随后,本文从理论和实证两个方面对这一现象的成因进行了探讨,认为加入WTO带来的比较优势与规模效应、产业结构变迁对加入WTO的路径依赖和变迁粘性、外商直接投资的流入结构和方向、我国在国际产业分工中的位置以及加入WTO加剧的产业集聚与区域发展不均衡等是导致经济增长与三次产业增速变化背离的主要原因。随后基于Chow突变点的实证检验和省域差异分析也全面支持了这一结论。最后,文章提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Firstly, this paper proves that the impact of China's entry into WTO on China's industrial development is in contradiction with Kuznets' fact, which shows that the growth rate of the tertiary industry's contribution rate has slowed down, and the Moore value of the industrial structure has become smaller. The growth rate of the secondary industry is higher than that of the tertiary industry, and the more developed the economy and the higher the per capita income, the slower the growth of the tertiary industry. Then, this paper discusses the causes of this phenomenon from both theoretical and empirical aspects, and points out that the comparative advantage and scale effect brought by China's entry into WTO, the path dependence and vicissitudes of industrial structure change to China's entry into WTO. The inflow structure and direction of FDI, the position of our country in the international industrial division and the imbalance between industrial agglomeration and regional development aggravated by China's entry into WTO are the main reasons leading to the deviation between economic growth and the third industrial growth rate. The empirical test based on Chow mutation point and the analysis of provincial differences also fully support this conclusion. Finally, the article puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【作者单位】：潍坊学院;
【基金】：教育部规划基金项目“国际技术扩散对中国制造业技术进步和产业结构升级的影响研究”的阶段性成果,项目批准号:10YJA790044 山东省软科学计划项目“创新技术的空间扩散规律及对山东省产业结构优化的影响研究”的阶段性成果,项目编号:2011RKGA1079
【分类号】：F719

【相似文献】