服务业具有本土市场效应吗——基于分位数面板模型的研究

发布时间：2018-12-09 09:24

【摘要】：服务业出口是否随着需求规模的扩大而增加?内需与外需对出口服务贸易的贡献孰大?服务业是否具有本土市场效应?针对以上问题,本文首先构建了一个包含需求在内的三维影响因素模型,从需求维度出发研究服务业出口影响因素的作用机制。其次,利用包括中国在内的24个国家2000—2012年的双边贸易面板数据并采取分位数回归方法进行实证检验,结果显示:(1)整体来看,服务业不存在本土市场效应;(2)在服务业出口初期,即在服务业出口量较小的时期,服务业具有本土市场效应;(3)在服务业出口中后期,即在服务业出口量较大的时期,服务业不具有本土市场效应。因此,适时地实施扩大内需政策有助于挖掘国内市场潜力,带动服务业的进一步出口,发挥服务业的本土市场效应。
[Abstract]:Do services exports increase with the scale of demand? What is the contribution of domestic and foreign demand to export service trade? Does the service industry have a domestic market effect? In view of the above problems, this paper first constructs a three-dimensional model of influencing factors, including demand, and studies the mechanism of the factors affecting the export of service industry from the perspective of demand. Secondly, using bilateral trade panel data of 24 countries, including China, from 2000 to 2012 and using quantile regression method, the results show that: (1) there is no domestic market effect in the service industry as a whole; (2) in the early period of service export, that is, in the period when the export of service industry is small, the service industry has the local market effect; (3) in the middle and late period of service export, that is, in the period when the export volume of service industry is large, the service industry does not have the local market effect. Therefore, timely implementation of the policy of expanding domestic demand will help to tap the potential of the domestic market, promote the further export of the service industry, and give play to the local market effect of the service industry.
【作者单位】：南京财经大学产业发展研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金“创新驱动下的我国高端服务业国际竞争力提升研究”(13BJL045) 教育部人文社科基金“我国服务业地区协同、区域集聚及产业升级”(11YJA790175) 江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目江苏高校“青蓝工程”
【分类号】：F719

【相似文献】