江苏省工业化与服务业发展的关系研究

发布时间：2019-06-07 07:47

【摘要】：社会经济发展历经农业经济社会、工业经济社会和服务经济社会三个阶段。在农业经济社会，农业增加值在GDP中的比重最大。随着经济的发展，农业增加值在GDP中的比重不断下降，工业增加值在GDP中的比重逐渐上升，服务业增加值在GDP中的比重也有所增加。人类社会进入工业经济时期，在工业化初期，服务业附属于工业；在工业化中期，服务业已经从工业中分离出来，但对工业化的作用不明显；在工业化后期，根据发达国家的发展经历，服务业尤其是生产性服务业增加值达到60%左右；服务经济时期服务业增加值在GDP中的比重在60%以上。研究表明江苏省工业化处于中后期，但是近年来服务业增加值在GDP中的比重在40%左右，工业化和服务业发展关系并没有呈现出相应的现象。本文旨在研究江苏省工业化和服务业发展关系，探讨服务业发展滞后的原因。此研究共分为五个部分。第一部分主要是工业化和服务业发展的文献综述，从理论方面论述制造业与服务业尤其是与生产性服务业的互动机制。第二部分论证了工业化和服务业发展的内在关系，两者具有密不可分的相互关系。具体表现为工业化和服务业发展之间相互促进、相互作用，共同发展。第三部分应用描述统计的方法分析了江苏省工业化、制造业和服务业现状。根据人均收入水平、产业结构等指标判断出江苏省工业化处于中后期。江苏省制造业尤其是装备制造业近年来发展良好；服务业增长速度处在20%～30%之间，，但是生产性服务业增长却很缓慢。第四部分对江苏省工业化和服务业发展的关系进行实证研究。收集1992～2009年的数据，选取工业产值、产业结构等十个影响江苏省工业化进程的指标和服务业增加值、服务业劳动生产率等八个影响服务业发展的指标。运用典型相关模型和计量模型对江苏省工业化和服务业发展的关系进行实证分析。结果表明：江苏省工业化和服务业发展高度相关；从典型结构角度得出对工业化影响比较大有人均GDP等四个指标；对服务业发展影响较大的指标有服务业劳动生产率等三个指标；江苏省工业化是服务业发展的原因，但是服务业发展对工业化进程没有因果关系。进一步研究了江苏省制造业和生产性服务业发展的关系，结果表明：江苏省制造业对生产性服务业发展有促进作用，Granger因果检验结果显示生产性服务业对制造业发展没有推动作用。最后对1982～2010年生产性服务业和内部的四个行业数据进行回归，回归结果为：对生产性服务业作用最大的行业是商业，其次是交通运输仓储邮政业和金融业，最后是科学研究技术服务业。第五部分总结了全文，对工业化进程中服务业发展给出一些有针对性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Social and economic development has gone through three stages: agricultural economic society, industrial economic society and service economic society. In the agricultural economy and society, the proportion of agricultural added value in GDP is the largest. With the development of economy, the proportion of agricultural added value in GDP is decreasing, the proportion of industrial added value in GDP is gradually increasing, and the proportion of service added value in GDP is also increased. Human society has entered the period of industrial economy, in the early stage of industrialization, the service industry is attached to industry, in the middle of industrialization, the service industry has been separated from the industry, but the effect on industrialization is not obvious. In the later stage of industrialization, according to the development experience of developed countries, the added value of service industry, especially producer service industry, reached about 60%, and the proportion of service industry added value in GDP during the service economy period was more than 60%. The results show that the industrialization of Jiangsu Province is in the middle and late stage, but the proportion of service added value in GDP is about 40% in recent years, and the relationship between industrialization and the development of service industry does not show the corresponding phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to study the relationship between industrialization and the development of service industry in Jiangsu Province, and to explore the reasons why the development of service industry lags behind. This study is divided into five parts. The first part is a literature review of industrialization and service industry development, which discusses the interaction mechanism between manufacturing industry and service industry, especially producer service industry. The second part demonstrates the internal relationship between industrialization and the development of service industry, which are closely related to each other. It is manifested in the mutual promotion, interaction and common development between industrialization and service industry development. The third part analyzes the present situation of industrialization, manufacturing and service industry in Jiangsu Province by using the method of description statistics. According to the level of per capita income, industrial structure and other indicators, it is judged that the industrialization of Jiangsu Province is in the middle and late stages. The manufacturing industry in Jiangsu Province, especially the equipment manufacturing industry, has developed well in recent years. The growth rate of the service industry is between 20% and 30%, but the growth of producer services is very slow. The fourth part makes an empirical study on the relationship between industrialization and service industry development in Jiangsu Province. This paper collects the data from 1992 to 2009, and selects ten indexes, such as industrial output value and industrial structure, which affect the industrialization process of Jiangsu Province, the added value of service industry and the labor productivity of service industry, which affect the development of service industry. The relationship between industrialization and service industry development in Jiangsu Province is empirically analyzed by using typical correlation model and econometric model. The results show that industrialization in Jiangsu Province is highly correlated with the development of service industry, and four indexes, such as GDP per capita, are obtained from the point of view of typical structure. There are three indexes that have great influence on the development of service industry, such as labor productivity of service industry. Industrialization in Jiangsu Province is the reason for the development of service industry, but the development of service industry has no causality with the process of industrialization. The relationship between the development of manufacturing industry and producer services in Jiangsu Province is further studied. The results show that the manufacturing industry in Jiangsu Province plays an important role in promoting the development of producer services. The results of Granger causality test show that producer services do not promote the development of manufacturing industry. Finally, the data of producer services and four internal industries in 1982 and 2010 are regressed. the regression results are as follows: the industry that plays the most important role in producer services is commerce, followed by transportation, warehousing, postal industry and financial industry. Finally, there is the service industry of scientific research and technology. The fifth part summarizes the full text, and gives some targeted policy suggestions for the development of service industry in the process of industrialization.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F427;F719;F224

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