东道国服务业发展对中国对外直接投资的影响研究

发布时间：2019-06-10 18:35

【摘要】：自1998年中央提出了“走出去”的发展战略开始，国家鼓励和支持有比较优势的各种所有制企业进行对外投资,审批标准和程序得到降低与简化,从此我国逐渐走上了从引资大国转变为投资大国的道路。为此,越来越多的国内外学者将中国对外直接投资的各类问题作为了热点进行研究,涌现出了大量成果颇丰的研究结论。随着我国对外直接投资的不断增加,从官方公布的投资数据上可以看出,中国近年来对外直接投资具有向服务业不断积聚的特点。然而,在现有的文献中,对于此类现象背后存在着何种原因并未做出明确的回答,并且,在已有文献中对于东道国服务业的发展对于中国对外直接投资的影响研究为数不多。因此,本文在大量翻阅国内外已有的关于对外直接投资研究文献的基础上,将重点分析东道国服务业发展对于我国对外直接投资的影响方式,并且将其细分为东道国服务业附加值与东道国服务贸易总额两部分,分别研究其对于中国对外直接投资的吸引程度。并且,有针对性地从中国对外直接投资的170个国家(地区)总体范围内,细分出发达国家以及发展中及欠发达国家两类,对总体及细分国家类别的不同样本进行了相应的静态及动态面板模型回归分析。首先,本文分析了至2003年以来,中国对外直接投资向服务业集聚的特点：在流量方面,从2006年开始,服务业的投资就占了中国OFDI流量的半壁江山,2006-2011年服务业占比不断上升,这一年均比例高达67.1%,尤以2008年比例占到81.5%为最高；其中,租赁和商务服务业、金融业以及批发和零售业三大部门占比最多,且一直以来就是中国跨国企业对外直接投资的重点部门。在存量方面,这六年来投向服务业的资金年均占比达到73%,其中增长得最快且占比最大的部门也是租赁和商务服务业。在投资的境外企业分布方面,2008-2011年的四年中,服务业的年均占比也达到了47.8%,其中批发和零售业、租赁和商务服务业、交通运输仓储和邮政业是占比前三的部门。本文认为,这种对外直接投资向服务业的迅速膨胀的现象背后必定存在着与东道国服务业发展的某种关联,并通过某种渠道吸引着中国的对外直接投资。接着,本文在综述了现有文献对于服务业具体部门投资以及向服务业投机动机的基础上,创新性地提出了东道国服务业附加值和东道国服务贸易额两种吸引方式,并详细分析两者如何吸引中国的对外直接投资。一方面,由于现代服务业普遍具有较高的附加值,且投入成本相对低廉,拥有的服务经验及管理技能可以较好的移植于国外投资的企业,高额利润是吸引跨国公司争先投资的源动力,也是企业生存的基础和竞争的目标。另外,由于一些服务产品现今仍是难以贸易的,这就使得跨国公司只能采用对外直接投资的办法来获得海外的市场利润。故当东道国服务业具有高额的附加值利润时,将吸引母国对该国的直接投资。另一方面,东道国服务贸易越发达,两国之间的商业联系就越密切,对于日后两国间的货物或服务贸易联系将更加便捷,投资的贸易促进效应越明显,这对于母国贸易的可持续发展具有强大的吸引力,从而扩大母国对其的直接投资。故本文在上述分析的框架下,提出了相应的假设,即：东道国服务业的高附加值对于中国对其的直接投资具有正向影响：东道国服务贸易越发达,将越吸引中国的直接投资。同时,在基于学者之前研究成果的基础上,本文也将考虑针对市场追求型、自然资源追求型及战略性资源追求型直接投资动机的影响因素,以便于同前人的研究结合起来。最后,在基于以上相应现状和理论分析的基础上,采用我国2003-2010年对世界170个国家(地区)对外直接投资额的面板数据,重点从东道国的服务业附加值及服务贸易额两个角度研究对我国对外直接投资的影响程度,同时将东道国人均国内生产总值、自然资源禀赋、高技术出口额、专利申请数量、通货膨胀率以及国家间的地理距离作为控制变量,运用静态和动态面板回归模型进行相应的计量分析。通过相应的检验分析,在东道国服务业发展方面得出以下结论：第一,在静态上,中国对外直接投资是偏好于东道国(地区)服务业发展的,东道国的服务业附加值及服务贸易额两个变量与OFDI均呈现出显著正相关的关系,以表明中国企业对于东道国服务业的利润追求、贸易促进型直接投资的机制是存在的,符合本文的假设,并且该效应在发达国家中的促进作用更为巨大。第二,在动态上,对外直接投资本身具有明显的动态连续性,即便这样,东道国服务业的发展仍将明显吸引中国的对外直接投资,当其服务业附加值和服务贸易额均增加1%时,中国对其直接投资额将相应提高0.465%,同样,该促进效应对于投向发达国家的资金更具吸引力。本文的创新之处在于：第一,从东道国的服务业发展视角来审视其对于中国对外直接投资的影响,将其分为服务业附加值和服务贸易额两个角度。第二,得出具有创新性的结论,即东道国服务业发展是促进中国对外直接投资的决定性因素之一,且该促进作用会因东道国的经济发展水平层次而不同。第三,在计量方法的应用上,将动态和静态的面板模型结合使用,增加了回归的稳健性及可比性。当然,本文虽创新性地从东道国服务业发展角度稳健地研究了其对中国对外直接投资的影响,但在理论上该联系仍有不足的地方。同样,本文的视角及方法具有一定的新颖性,但也需要日后的逐步完善。相信随着中国对外直接投资的继续发展与研究的深入,对于东道国服务业发展这一视角定会有更全面的讨论。
[Abstract]:Since the development strategy of the "Get out of here." has been put forward in the middle of 1998, the State encourages and supports various types of ownership enterprises with comparative advantages to carry out foreign investment, and the approval standards and procedures are reduced and simplified, from which the country has gradually embarked on a way to transform from a large country to an investment country. For this reason, more and more domestic and foreign scholars have studied the various problems of China's foreign direct investment as the hot spot, and a lot of results have emerged. With the continuous increase of foreign direct investment in our country, it can be seen from the official published investment data that the foreign direct investment in China has the characteristic of increasing the service industry in recent years. However, in the existing literature, there is no clear answer to the reasons behind such phenomena, and there are few studies on the impact of the development of the host country's service industry on China's foreign direct investment. Therefore, on the basis of a large number of recent literature on foreign direct investment, this paper will focus on the influence of the development of the host country's service industry on China's foreign direct investment It is divided into two parts of the value-added value of the host country service industry and the total amount of the host country's service trade, and the attraction of the foreign direct investment to China is studied separately Degree. And, in the overall scope of 170 countries (regions) of China's foreign direct investment, it is divided into two categories: the developed countries, the development and the less developed countries, and the corresponding static and dynamic panel model regression points are carried out for different samples of the general and sub-divided country categories. First of all, this paper analyzes the characteristics of China's foreign direct investment to the service industry since 2003. In terms of the flow, the investment in the service industry accounts for half of the China's ODI flow in 2006-2011, and the service industry in 2006-2011 is increasing, the average annual rate is as high as 67. 1%, especially in 2008, with the highest proportion of 81.5%; in which, the three sectors of the leasing and business service industry, the financial industry and the wholesale and retail industry account for the most, and have always been the heavy foreign direct investment of the Chinese multinational enterprises Point-of-the-art. In terms of stock, the average annual rate of investment in services for the six years is 73 per cent, of which the fastest-growing sector and the largest sector are leasing and business In the four-year period of 2008-2011, the average annual percentage of service industry reached 47.8%, of which wholesale and retail, leasing and business services, transport and storage and postal services account for the previous three years. This paper holds that the rapid expansion of the foreign direct investment to the service industry must have some kind of association with the development of the host country's service industry and attract the external direct investment of China through some kind of channel. Then, on the basis of summarizing the investment of the existing literature on the specific sectors of the service industry and the incentive to the service industry, this article innovatively puts forward the value-added value of the service industry of the host country and the trade volume of the host country. The way to attract and analyze how to attract Chinese to China On the one hand, because modern service industry generally has higher added value, and the investment cost is relatively low, the service experience and management skill of the company can be better transplanted to the foreign investment enterprises, and the high profit is to attract the transnational corporations to compete for the first time The power of the source is also the basis of the enterprise's existence. The goal of competition is that, as a result of the fact that some of the service products are still difficult to trade today, it makes it possible for transnational corporations to have access to foreign direct investment only Market profit. So when the host country's service industry has high value-added profit, it will attract the home country to the country On the other hand, the more developed the service trade of the host country, the closer the commercial ties between the two countries, the more convenient the trade links between the goods or services between the two countries, the more obvious the trade facilitation effect of the investment, which has a strong effect on the sustainable development of the home country trade The big attraction, thus expanding the home country to it Therefore, under the framework of the above-mentioned analysis, this paper puts forward the corresponding hypothesis that the high added value of the host country's service industry has a positive impact on China's direct investment: the more developed the service trade of the host country, the more attractive China will be. At the same time, based on the research results of the scholars, this paper will also consider the influencing factors of the direct investment motivation for the market-seeking, natural-resource-seeking and strategic-resource-seeking-type, so as to be in the same way as the previous research. In the end, on the basis of the above corresponding present situation and the theoretical analysis, the foreign direct investment of 170 countries (regions) of the world is adopted in China in 2003-2010. The panel data of the fund shall focus on the impact of the foreign direct investment from the two aspects of the value added and the service trade volume of the service industry of the host country, and at the same time, the host country's per capita gross domestic product, natural resources endowment and high-technology exports The static and dynamic panel regression model is used as the control variable for the number of patent applications, the rate of inflation and the geographical distance between the countries as control variables. According to the corresponding inspection and analysis, the following conclusions are drawn in the development of the host country's service industry: first, in the static state, China's foreign direct investment is preferred in the host country (region ) In the development of the service industry, the value-added value of the service industry of the host country and the trade volume of the service trade have a significant positive correlation with the ODI, so as to show that the Chinese enterprises are in the pursuit of the profit of the host country service industry, and the mechanism of the direct investment of the trade promotion type is existing, in accordance with the assumptions herein, and the effect is promoted in developed countries Second, in the dynamic, the direct investment of the host country has obvious dynamic continuity, even if so, the development of the host country service industry will obviously attract the foreign direct investment of China, and its service industry value-added and service trade When the amount is increased by 1%, China's direct investment will be increased by 0.465%, and the effect will also be for the developed countries. The innovation of this paper is that the first part, from the view of the service industry development of the host country, examines its influence on China's foreign direct investment, and divides it into service value added value and Second, it is concluded that the development of the host country's service industry is one of the decisive factors to promote China's foreign direct investment, and the promotion will be due to the economy of the host country Third, in the application of the measurement method, the dynamic and static panel model is used in combination, and the return time is increased. The robustness and comparability of China's foreign direct investment are studied in a steady way from the development of the host country's service industry, but in theory In the same way, the view and method of this paper have some novelty. But it also needs to be gradually improved in the future. It is believed that with the continued development and research of China's foreign direct investment, the development of the host country's service industry
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F719;F832.6

【参考文献】