欧元区成立对德国低学历群体失业率影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-20 06:11

本文关键词： 欧元区德国对外贸易 FDI 德国低学历群体失业率　出处：《中国青年政治学院》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：欧元区成立之后,“出口强国”德国的对外贸易量大增带动了国内经济的繁荣,2009年欧债危机之后,德国经济的优异表现更是使其作为欧元区受益者的形象深入人心。然而与此同时,德国国内低学历群体的失业问题广受关注。经比较发现,德国的低学历群体相比于法国、意大利等国的低学历群体更难就业,并且这一问题在欧元区成立之后愈加严重。德国的技术密集型和资本密集型产品在国际市场上具有比较优势,不能进入这些行业的低学历群体的利益可能会在经济一体化程度加深的过程中受损。本文通过邹氏断点检验法,验证了德国的进出口额和FDI总流量在欧元区成立之后大幅增加,发生了结构性的变化。随后,通过构建误差修正模型,验证了上述变量对德国低学历群体失业率有显著影响:在其他条件不变的情况下,出口额越大,德国低学历群体失业率越高;进口额越大,德国低学历群体失业率越低。FDI总流量越大,德国低学历群体失业率越高。欧元区成立使德国技术和资本的比较优势进一步发挥,对于不能参与具有比较优势行业的低学历群体的就业有不利影响。德国需要不断加大对教育的投入,逐步提高国民受教育水平,才能更好地适应其在国际市场上具有技术和资本方面的比较优势这一定位。中国在扩大开放的过程中需要注意对发达国家和发展中国家均衡开放,同时大力发展教育。
[Abstract]:After the establishment of the euro zone, the volume of foreign trade in Germany, the "export power", increased dramatically, driving the domestic economic boom. In 2009, after the European debt crisis, The excellent performance of the German economy has made its image as a beneficiary of the euro area more popular. However, at the same time, the unemployment problem of the low-educated group in Germany has attracted much attention. The comparison shows that the low-educated group in Germany is compared with that in France. Countries such as Italy have a harder time finding jobs, and the problem has worsened since the creation of the euro zone. Germany's technology-intensive and capital-intensive products have a comparative advantage in international markets. The interests of low-educated groups who cannot enter these industries may be damaged in the process of deepening economic integration. This paper, by using Zou's breakpoint test, verifies that Germany's import and export volume and total FDI flow increased significantly after the establishment of the euro zone. A structural change took place. Then, by building an error correction model, it was verified that the above variables had a significant impact on the unemployment rate of Germany's low-educated groups: the larger the export volume, the more the other conditions remained unchanged. The higher the unemployment rate of the low-educated group in Germany, the higher the import amount, the lower the unemployment rate of the low-educated group in Germany, the larger the total FDI flow, and the higher the unemployment rate of the low-educated group in Germany. The establishment of the euro zone further exerts the comparative advantage of technology and capital in Germany. It has a negative impact on the employment of low-educated groups who cannot participate in industries with comparative advantage. Germany needs to continuously increase its investment in education and gradually raise the level of education for its citizens. China should pay attention to the balanced opening to both developed and developing countries in the process of opening up to the outside world and vigorously develop education.
【学位授予单位】：中国青年政治学院
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F249.516

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