探究我国人口年龄结构特征对经济增长波动的影响

发布时间：2018-02-21 14:40

本文关键词： 人口转型经济增长波动索罗经济增长模型向量自回归模型　出处：《经济学报》2016年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：我国人口红利消失后出现了严重老龄化和少子化问题,这些入口年龄结构新特征对经济增长波动究竟有何影响?在经济新常态的背景下,这一问题值得着力研究。文章首先扩展了索罗经济增长模型用于分析人口年龄结构与经济增长之间存在的紧密关系,然后使用我国1978—2014年的时间序列数据,建立向量自回归模型对两者的关系进行定量分析。结果发现:我国人口年龄结构变化对经济增长波动有长远且滞后的影响,其中0~14岁少儿人口比例的快速增加对经济增长波动有滞后的正向冲击,而65岁以上老年入口比例的快速增加对经济增长波动有滞后的负向影响。因此为了缓解经济增长的长期波动,我国应尽快全面放开生育限制,甚至是采取鼓励生育的政策,快速有效地增加少儿人口比例,同时也可起到减缓老年人口比例快速增加的效果。
[Abstract]:After the disappearance of the demographic dividend in China, there are serious problems of aging and minority children. How do these new characteristics of age structure affect the fluctuation of economic growth? In the context of the new normal state of economy, this problem is worth studying. Firstly, this paper extends the Soro economic growth model to analyze the close relationship between population age structure and economic growth. Then, using the time series data from 1978 to 2014 in China, a vector autoregressive model is established to quantitatively analyze the relationship between the two. The results show that the change of population age structure has a long-term and lagging effect on the fluctuation of economic growth. Among them, the rapid increase in the proportion of children aged 14 years old has a lagging positive impact on the fluctuation of economic growth. However, the rapid increase in the proportion of elderly people over 65 has a lagging negative impact on the fluctuation of economic growth. Therefore, in order to alleviate the long-term fluctuations of economic growth, China should fully liberalize birth restrictions as soon as possible, and even adopt policies to encourage fertility. Increasing the proportion of children quickly and effectively can also slow down the rapid increase in the proportion of the elderly.
【作者单位】：清华大学经济管理学院经济系;清华大学中国财政税收研究所;
【基金】：国家社科基金青年项目“人口年龄结构变动对居民消费的影响及对策研究”(编号:13CRK024)资助
【分类号】：C924.2;F124.1;F224

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