新疆城镇化的时空特征与动力因素研究——基于核密度与分位数模型的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-08 23:28

本文选题：新疆城镇化　切入点：时空分布　出处：《新疆师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2016年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文本采用非参数核密度方法对2005-2013年新疆城镇化的时空分布特征进行估计,并在此基础上,利用分位数回归模型模拟新疆城镇化发展的动力因素。研究发现:第一,在时间维度上,改革开放以来新疆城镇化经历了一个剧烈的波动过程,以2000年为拐点;2005-2013年新疆城镇化分布的演进趋势表明,新疆城镇化水平持续提高,地区差距明显扩大。在空间维度上,根据城镇化水平及其增速,将新疆各地州的城镇化划分为"高-高"型、"高-低"型、"低-高"型、"低-低"型四类地区。第二,分位数回归结果显示,资本投入、外向经济、产业结构对城镇化起正向促进作用,资本投入、外向经济均对城镇化中前期的影响较大,后期影响较小,产业结构的影响程度随着城镇化水平的提高而增强;行政力量、消费水平、水资源充裕程度对城镇化起负向抑制作用,行政力量、消费水平在中前期的影响均较大,水资源充裕程度在后期影响较大。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the non-parametric kernel density method is used to estimate the spatial and temporal distribution of urbanization in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2013, and on this basis, the quantile regression model is used to simulate the dynamic factors of urbanization in Xinjiang. In the time dimension, the urbanization of Xinjiang has experienced a violent fluctuation process since the reform and opening up. With 2000 as the turning point, the evolution trend of urbanization distribution in Xinjiang from 2005 to 2013 shows that the urbanization level of Xinjiang continues to improve. According to the level of urbanization and its growth rate, the urbanization of all states in Xinjiang is divided into four types: "high-high" type, "high-low" type, "low-high" type, "low-low" type, "low-low" type. The results of quantile regression showed that capital input, outward economy and industrial structure played a positive role in urbanization. The degree of influence of industrial structure increases with the improvement of urbanization level. Administrative power, consumption level, water resources adequacy play a negative role in the urbanization, and the administrative power and consumption level have a great impact on urbanization in the early and middle period. The abundance of water resources has a great influence in the later stage.
【作者单位】：新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心;新疆大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“资源型产业碳排放损益偏离分析及区域公平发展研究”(71463056)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F299.27

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