新疆各行业吸纳就业能力的实证分析

发布时间：2018-07-25 13:37

【摘要】：新疆的就业问题是个复杂的问题,一直以来备受社会关注,很多学者也针对新疆的就业问题做过很多的研究,可就业问题依然没有得到彻底的解决。再加上新疆现在处于经济体制加剧变革、社会结构不断变动的关键时刻,劳动力市场存在较多的劳动力但参与劳动的人员较少,导致劳动力市场中存在过剩的劳动力,这样带来的就业压力更大,劳动力市场的供需情况日益突出,甚至还会引发一系列的社会经济问题。本文主要采用2002年、2007年和2012年新疆投入产出表及新疆各年的统计年鉴的数据,定性与定量分析相结合,基于投入产出技术分析理论,运用投入产出主要系数感应力系数、影响力系数、前后向关联系数、综合就业系数、变异系数等重要指标,再结合新疆的就业结构与产业结构的变动发展趋势分析,识别出新疆吸纳就业能力较强的行业,在新疆未来经济发展中重点发展被识别出的行业对有效解决就业问题具有重要意义,之后又构建了(SDA)结构分解技术模型,对影响就业水平变动的因素进行了实证分析,发现最终消费、政府消费、居民消费、投资消费这四个因素对就业人数增加时起着拉动作用,而技术进步与劳动力投入系数大体上对就业具有阻碍作用。对新疆就业问题的原因分析中发现,与经济较发达省份对比,发现新疆的产业结构与就业结构均落后于其他经济较发达省份,且新疆的劳动力受教育结构不合理。进一步分析中又发现真正影响新疆就业的原因是产业结构不合理与劳动力供过于求且劳动力受教育程度偏低,文章最后结合文中所分析出的重要原因,给出了相应的就业政策建议。本文研究的主要方法:首先,分析了新疆产业结构与就业结构的现状,运用结构偏离度系数、就业弹性及比较劳动生产率等重要指标分析出了新疆产业结构不合理,经济效益低。其次,基于投入产出技术分析法,在列昂惕夫逆矩阵基础上,引入劳动力投入系数,构建就业乘数矩阵,通过该矩阵测算分析和统计,得到各行业的直接和综合就业效应。然后,将投入产出技术分析法与(SDA)模型相结合,测算出就业水平随着各因素在不同时期因结构变化而产生的影响程度,探讨真正影响就业结构的原因,最后,用线性回归分析方法对影响就业水平的经济指标量化进行检验,发现与前文的原因分析一致。
[Abstract]:The employment problem in Xinjiang is a complex problem, which has been paid close attention to by the society all the time. Many scholars have also done a lot of research on the employment problem in Xinjiang, but the employment problem has still not been solved thoroughly. In addition, Xinjiang is now at a critical moment when the economic system is intensifying and the social structure is constantly changing. There are more labor forces in the labor market but fewer people are involved in the labor force, resulting in a surplus of labor force in the labor market. This will bring greater pressure on employment, the increasingly prominent supply and demand situation in the labor market, and even a series of social and economic problems. This paper mainly adopts the data of Xinjiang input-output table in 2002, 2007 and 2012, and the statistical yearbooks of Xinjiang in each year, combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, based on the input-output technical analysis theory, using the inductive force coefficient of the main input-output coefficient. Influence coefficient, forward and backward correlation coefficient, comprehensive employment coefficient, variation coefficient and other important indicators, combined with Xinjiang's employment structure and industrial structure change development trend analysis, identified Xinjiang's strong employability industries. In the future economic development of Xinjiang, the identified industries are of great significance to solve the employment problem effectively. Then, the (SDA) structural decomposition technology model is constructed, and the factors affecting the change of employment level are analyzed empirically. It is found that the final consumption, the government consumption, the resident consumption and the investment consumption play a pulling role in the increase of the number of employed people, while the technological progress and the labor force input coefficient generally hinder the employment. By analyzing the causes of employment in Xinjiang, it is found that compared with the more developed provinces, the industrial structure and employment structure of Xinjiang lag behind those of other economically more developed provinces, and the education structure of the labor force in Xinjiang is unreasonable. In the further analysis, it is found that the real reasons that affect the employment in Xinjiang are the unreasonable industrial structure, the oversupply of labor force and the low level of education of the labor force. The corresponding employment policy suggestions are given. The main methods of this paper are as follows: firstly, the present situation of Xinjiang's industrial structure and employment structure is analyzed, and the irrational industrial structure is analyzed by using the structural deviation coefficient, employment elasticity and comparative labor productivity. The economic benefit is low. Secondly, based on the input-output technique analysis method, the employment multiplier matrix is constructed by introducing the labor input coefficient on the basis of the Leontiff inverse matrix, and the direct and comprehensive employment effects of various industries are obtained through the calculation, analysis and statistics of the matrix. Then, combining the input-output technology analysis method with the (SDA) model, the author calculates the degree of influence of the employment level with the structural changes in different periods, and probes into the causes of the real influence on the employment structure. The quantitative analysis of the economic indexes affecting the employment level is carried out by using the method of linear regression analysis, and it is found that the analysis is consistent with the previous analysis.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F249.27

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