港城互动构建绿色低碳港口城市系统仿真

发布时间：2018-10-16 22:08

【摘要】：通过分析港城互动构建绿色低碳港口城市系统结构,找出港口城市绿色低碳化发展的影响因素,构建基于系统动力学(SD)的因果关系图,建立系统流图和系统动力学方程,研究港城互动构建绿色低碳港口城市系统的内在机理。以深圳市为例进行实证分析,通过对仿真模型的有效性检验,验证了模型的有效性。选取工业比重、港口SO2排放系数、工业SO2排放系数等作为政策变量,分析这些因素对港城系统的影响。仿真结果显示,调整城市产业结构,可以大幅减少能耗和污染气体排放,低碳减排效果明显,辅以减排措施的实施,则可以实现港城经济发展与绿色低碳建设的目标。
[Abstract]:By analyzing the interaction between port and city to construct the green low-carbon port city system structure, find out the influencing factors of the port city green low-carbon development, construct the causality diagram based on the system dynamics (SD), establish the system flow diagram and system dynamics equation. This paper studies the inner mechanism of port-city interaction to construct green low-carbon port city system. Taking Shenzhen as an example, the validity of the simulation model is verified by testing the validity of the simulation model. The industrial specific gravity, port SO2 emission coefficient and industrial SO2 emission coefficient are selected as policy variables to analyze the influence of these factors on the port and city system. The simulation results show that the adjustment of urban industrial structure can greatly reduce energy consumption and pollution gas emissions, and the effect of low carbon emission reduction is obvious. With the implementation of emission reduction measures, the economic development of port and city and the goal of green and low-carbon construction can be achieved.
【作者单位】：大连海事大学交通运输管理学院;大连海事大学战略管理与系统规划研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“北极航道通航环境评价及海上突发事件响应机制研究”(61473053) 教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“我国低碳绿色港口构建机制研究”(10YJA790045) 大连市科学技术计划项目“大连市发展绿色低碳交通的战略研究”(2015D12ZC181)
【分类号】：F299.2;X321

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