基于固定效应变截距回归的区域规划政策效果评价研究

发布时间：2018-10-25 19:36

【摘要】：应用国家重大区域规划中的典型规划"长江三角洲地区区域规划"中两省一市的经济数据,建立了不同时间窗口的固定效应变截距回归模型。通过对比不同时间窗口模型回归系数的变化,得到国家重大区域规划的政策效果。本研究的创新与特色:一是通过全部三个省份不同时间窗口变截距回归模型斜率系数的变化,得到单位政策变量导致效果变量增量变化的大小。二是通过规划前后全部三个省份不同时间窗口回归方程截距变化的对比,得到效果变量总额增加自发部分的大小。本文的创新点一和二改变了现有研究通过不同区域的横向数据对比获取评价效果的现状;事实上,不同区域由于客观基础和条件的差异是不具备可比性的。三是通过对比规划前后不同省份效果回归函数截距大小排序的变化,判别不同省份之间发展的均衡程度的变化。主要结论:一是规划区域中央固定资产投资的单位投入对城乡居民人均可支配收入的改变量有显著增加;由于经济发展水平的提高中央补助收入的单位投入对城乡居民可支配收入的变化量减少,其影响不再显著。二是规划区城乡居民人均可支配收入自发水平有显著增加。三是长三角规划区各省间人均可支配收入的自发性收入水平的差距缩小。
[Abstract]:Based on the economic data of two provinces and one city in the typical regional planning of the Yangtze River Delta, a fixed effect variable intercept regression model with different time windows is established. By comparing the regression coefficients of different time window models, the policy effect of national major regional planning is obtained. The innovation and characteristics of this study are as follows: first, through the slope coefficient change of variable intercept regression model in all three provinces in different time windows, the increment of effect variable caused by unit policy variable is obtained. Second, by comparing the intercept changes of regression equations in all three provinces before and after planning, the size of the spontaneous part increased by the total amount of the effect variable. The innovation points 1 and 2 of this paper have changed the present situation of the existing research to obtain the evaluation effect by comparing the horizontal data of different regions; in fact, different regions are not comparable because of the difference of objective basis and conditions. The third is to judge the change of equilibrium degree of development between different provinces by comparing the order of intercept of effect regression function between different provinces before and after planning. The main conclusions are as follows: first, the change of the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents by the unit investment of central fixed asset investment in the planning region has increased significantly; Due to the improvement of economic development level, the effect of unit input of central subsidy income on the disposable income of urban and rural residents is reduced, and the effect is no longer significant. Second, the spontaneous level of per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents in the planning areas has increased significantly. Third, the gap between the per capita disposable income in the Yangtze River Delta area is narrowing.
【作者单位】：大连理工大学经济与管理学部;黑龙江科技大学理学院;
【基金】：国家发改委员会项目(2011-47-01) 国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171031,7147102) 辽宁经济社会发展重点课题(2015Slktzdian-05)
【分类号】：F127;F224

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