城镇化、金融杠杆与经济增长
发布时间：2019-08-15 12:26
【摘要】：本文基于143个国家1983~2012年的动态面板数据,对城镇化、金融杠杆和经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)城镇化和经济增长之间呈现出显著的"倒U型"关系,当城镇化率达到60%~63%时,经济增长可能出现拐点;(2)在城镇化进程中,金融杠杆水平过低或过高都会对经济增长产生负面影响;而当金融杠杆位于合理水平时,则会对经济增长产生促进作用;(3)根据拐点区间的平均值和上限,并根据最近5年中国城镇化率的年均增速推算,中国的经济增长很可能在2019~2021年进入拐点区域。基于上述结论,中国应科学看待城镇化推动经济增长的客观规律,同时前瞻性地加强金融杠杆的动态管理,尽可能争取在经济增长"拐点"到来之前完成经济转型升级和金融深化改革,用新的经济增长点和稳健的金融体系来抵御可能出现的经济和金融风险。
[Abstract]:Based on the dynamic panel data of 143 countries from 1983 to 2012, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between urbanization, financial leverage and economic growth. The results show that: (1) there is a significant "inverted U-shaped" relationship between urbanization and economic growth, and when the urbanization rate reaches 60% 鈮，
本文编号：2526995
[Abstract]:Based on the dynamic panel data of 143 countries from 1983 to 2012, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between urbanization, financial leverage and economic growth. The results show that: (1) there is a significant "inverted U-shaped" relationship between urbanization and economic growth, and when the urbanization rate reaches 60% 鈮，
本文编号：2526995
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