基于经济体之间相互作用的中国资产价格波动特性分析

发布时间：2018-05-09 02:38

本文选题：经济体相互作用 + 资产价格　；参考：《华北水利水电大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：大类资产价格的波动是一经济体社会、经济、文化、政策等因素共同作用的结果,无论是对于国家政策制定、监测者还是投资人来说,资产价格波动特性都有着举足轻重的意义。随着经济全球化持续深度发展带来的产业链的全球化和生产环节分工的细化、科技与信息技术进一步发达带来的资本在全球范围内流动畅通性持续的加强,中国资产价格的波动特性也越来越多染上全球化影响的颜色。总量上来说:不同经济体景气程度通过产业链相互作用,呈现出同步、联动、传导等大体协同的关系,但由于政策、金融资产的博弈性质,经济体之间的相互作用最终结果并不完全体现为周期的传导,而是相关经济指标跷跷板效应与追随趋同效应的交替出现,对资产价格的波动特性造成干扰。[4]内部结构上来说:经济体自身发展阶段与其他经济体的相对关系会影响到产业链分工优势地位的不同,从而引发产业链环节内资本在不同经济体之间的选择与流动,带来产业的兴盛与衰退,导致经济体增长方式和内部结构的变迁,进而带来资本流入环节产业链或产业角色的投资机会。本文基于对总量和内部结构特性分析,将经济体之间相互作用、大类资产价格特性通过两者的共同经济因素联系起来,通过理论分析逻辑推演得到影响因素的作用机理,而后提取典型的表观经济指标,通过对比分析、实证研究等方法进一步确认逻辑推导的正确性。基于文章结论尝试给出投资配置的建议。
[Abstract]:Fluctuations in the prices of large categories of assets are the result of a combination of social, economic, cultural, policy and other factors in an economy, whether for national policy formulation, monitors or investors, The characteristics of asset price fluctuation are of great significance. With the globalization of the industrial chain and the refinement of the division of labor in the production links brought about by the sustained and deep development of economic globalization, the capital flowing smoothly in the global scope has been continuously strengthened due to the further development of science and technology and information technology. The volatility of asset prices in China is also becoming more and more global in color. In terms of total amount, the prosperity of different economies is affected by the interaction of industry chains, showing a general synergistic relationship, such as synchronization, linkage, transmission, etc., but due to the policy, the nature of the game of financial assets, The final result of the interaction between economies is not only the transmission of cycles, but also the alternating appearance of seesaw effect and follow convergence effect. Interference with the volatility of asset prices. [4] in terms of internal structure, the relative relationship between the stage of the economy's own development and that of other economies will affect the differences in the dominant position of the division of labour in the industrial chain, This will lead to the choice and flow of capital among different economies in the industrial chain, the prosperity and recession of industry, and the change of the growth mode and internal structure of the economy. In turn, it brings the investment opportunity of the industry chain or industry role. Based on the analysis of the total amount and internal structural characteristics, this paper links the interaction between economies and the price characteristics of a large class of assets through the common economic factors of both, and obtains the mechanism of the influencing factors by theoretical analysis and logical deduction. Then the typical apparent economic indicators are extracted, and the correctness of logical derivation is further confirmed by comparative analysis, empirical research and other methods. Based on the conclusion of this paper, the author tries to give some suggestions on investment allocation.
【学位授予单位】：华北水利水电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F299.23;F724.5

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