我国环保服务业上市公司投资价值及其与股票市场的相关性分析

发布时间：2018-05-14 15:14

本文选题：环保服务业 + 上市公司　；参考：《安徽大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着国民收入的提高,投资越来越受到广大市民的关注,带来了证券市场的持续升温。然而,我国的第一产业和第二产业的辉煌时期已经过去,以服务业为代表的第三产业正逐渐成为投资人青睐的对象。环保服务业作为朝阳行业中的新兴行业,在国家"十二五"规划纲要中,国务院表示要大力发展环保服务业,而"十三五"规划中环保投入是"十二五"期间的两倍以上,更显示了国家大力发展环保服务业和治理环境污染的决心。目前,我国环保服务业上市公司逐渐发展壮大,也吸引了广大投资者的注意,因此,衡量出环保服务业上市公司的投资价值,并将其与股票市场上的变现建立联系,一方面可以帮助投资者提高其投资效率,避免投资风险,使得投资者做出更加理性的投资决策。另一方面,可以帮助环保服务业上市公司扩大融资规模,补充运营资金,从而提高整个行业的运营效率和规模。本文首先在研究了国内外关于上市公司投资价值及其股票市场的相关性的相关文献的基础上,分析和总结了我国环保服务业的发展现状和发展趋势,以及相关的影响因素。其次,根据上市公司投资价值的两个不同理论,选择了价值学派和基本面分析法作为本文的理论基础。再次,本文通过搜集了环保服务业上市公司披露的2013年至2015年财务指标的相关数据,通过因子分析法对上市公司的投资价值得分进行了计算和分析,并得出了各上市公司投资价值的综合得分排名和发展趋势。最后,通过比较上市公司投资价值排名和股票价格排名,发现二者有一定差异,因此对上市公司投资价值与股票市场的一些指标分别进行了相关性分析和回归分析,探索出二者之间的具体联系,从而根据理论分析和实证分析的结果,提出相应的投资建议。研究结果表明:(1)环保服务业上市公司的财务经营状况与投资价值高低呈正相关,在反映上市公司投资价值水平的众多指标中,盈利能力对上市公司投资价值的贡献程度最大,其次依次是成长能力、偿债能力、股本扩张能力和运营能力,因此通过提高环保服务业上市公司的盈利能力,可以有效提高其投资价值。(2)环保服务业上市公司投资价值排名与股票价值排名不一致,部分股票存在被"高估"或"低估"的现象。其中迪森环保和先河环保从2013年至2015年投资价值得分高于其股票价值,连续三年被"低估",相反地,神雾环保和中国天楹从2013年至2015年投资价值得分低于其股票价值,连续三年被"高估"。(3)对于股票价格来说,上市公司的总资产周转率对股价的影响程度最大,投资价值次之,因此上市公司的股票价格不能如实地反映出其投资价值的大小。对于股票市场来说,上市公司的股票年均价和年涨跌幅可以在一定程度上反映出其投资价值大小,而其余指标都与投资价值基本不相关。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the increase of national income, investment has been paid more and more attention by the public. However, the brilliant period of the primary and secondary industries in China has passed, and the tertiary industry, represented by the service industry, is gradually becoming the object of investors' favor. As an emerging industry in the sunrise industry, the State Council indicated in the outline of the 12th Five-Year Plan that it would vigorously develop the environmental protection service industry. The investment in environmental protection in the 13th Five-Year Plan is more than twice that of the 12th Five-Year Plan. More shows the country vigorously develops the environmental protection service industry and the control environmental pollution determination. At present, the listed companies of the environmental protection service industry in our country have gradually developed and strengthened, which have also attracted the attention of the majority of investors. Therefore, the investment value of the listed companies in the environmental protection service industry has been measured, and the relationship between them and the realization of the stock market has been established. On the one hand, it can help investors improve their investment efficiency, avoid investment risk, and make investors make more rational investment decisions. On the other hand, it can help the listed companies in the environmental protection service industry to expand the financing scale and replenish the operating capital, thus improving the operation efficiency and scale of the whole industry. Based on the study of the domestic and foreign literature on the investment value of listed companies and the relevance of their stock market, this paper analyzes and summarizes the current situation and development trend of environmental protection service industry in China, as well as the relevant influencing factors. Secondly, according to the two different theories of the investment value of listed companies, the value school and the fundamental analysis method are chosen as the theoretical basis of this paper. Thirdly, this paper calculates and analyzes the investment value score of listed companies through factor analysis by collecting the relevant data of financial indicators disclosed by listed companies in environmental protection service industry from 2013 to 2015. And obtained the listed company investment value comprehensive score rank and the development trend. Finally, by comparing the ranking of investment value and stock price of listed companies, it is found that there are some differences between them. Therefore, the correlation analysis and regression analysis of some indexes of investment value and stock market of listed companies are carried out respectively. Based on the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the corresponding investment suggestions are put forward. The results show that the financial operating status of listed companies in the environmental protection service industry is positively correlated with the level of investment value. Among the many indexes that reflect the level of investment value of listed companies, profitability contributes the most to the investment value of listed companies. The next order is growth capacity, solvency, equity expansion capacity and operational capacity, so by improving the profitability of listed companies in the environmental protection services industry, It can effectively improve its investment value. 2) the ranking of investment value of listed companies in environmental protection service industry is inconsistent with the ranking of stock value, and some stocks are "overvalued" or "undervalued". Among them, Diesen and Pioneer scored higher investment value than their stock value from 2013 to 2015, which was "undervalued" for the third year in a row. On the contrary, Shenwu and Tianyanda of China scored below their stock value from 2013 to 2015. For three consecutive years, the total asset turnover of listed companies has the greatest influence on the stock price, followed by the investment value, so the stock price of the listed company can not reflect the size of its investment value truthfully. For the stock market, the average annual price and annual fluctuation of the listed companies can reflect the value of their investments to a certain extent, while the other indicators are not related to the investment value.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

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