安徽省新型工业化与新型城市化关系研究
发布时间：2018-09-01 08:59
【摘要】：自十六大以来,国家的文件中多次出现关于新型工业化与新型城市化的指导政策。十八大则提出了发展新型城镇化的要求。在推进新型工业化与新型城市化时,二者不能顾此失彼。和全国一样,安徽省的城市化水平一直滞后于工业化水平。这二者究竟存在着怎样的关系,对于安徽省来说,二者发展协调与否,是前者带动了后者的发展,还是后者带动了前者的发展,这些问题的解决为相关部门的政策制定提供依据。 为了考察安徽省新型工业化与新型城市化的关系,首先本文对安徽省新型工业化水平进行测度,分别从产业结构以及工业化阶段来考察新型工业化水平,接着通过构建22个指标的评价指标体系,结合灰色关联法,测算出1992-2011年安徽省新型工业化综合指数,发现除了个别年份下降外,总体呈现上升的趋势。 其次,对建国以来安徽省城市化进程及表现进行了分析,接着采用层次分析法,根据选取的指标,测算了1992-2011年安徽省新型城市化综合指数,结果表明1992-2005年安徽省新型城市化发展缓慢,然而2006-2011年新型城市化却得到了较快的发展。 在测算出1992-2011年安徽省新型工业化综合指数与新型城市化综合指数的基础上,从协调性和动态分析两方而研究了二者的关系。借助于熵变方程和耦合协调度分别从定性和定量两个角度研究了二者的协调度,发现二者呈现越来越协调的发展之势。协整分析中给出了协整方程,Granger检验表明：新型工业化是新型城市化变化的Granger原因,而后者不是前者变化的Granger原因。进一步的脉冲响应分析及方差分解说明：新型工业化水平的提高会推动新型城市化的发展,而新型城市化水平对新型工业化的冲击效应也有一定的影响,只是表现得不那么强烈,有微弱的正向推动作用,且随着时间增长有增强的趋势。 最后,本文简要地给出推动二者协调发展的几点相关建议：优化产业结构,发展绿色经济；促进农民工市民化,快速推进新型城市化；协调省内区域发展,健全现代城镇体系。
[Abstract]:Since the 16th National Congress, the national documents on new-type industrialization and new-type urbanization guidance policy. The 18th National Congress put forward the requirement of developing new urbanization. In promoting new-type industrialization and new-type urbanization, the two cannot ignore one another. Like the whole country, the level of urbanization in Anhui Province has lagged behind the level of industrialization. What is the relationship between the two? for Anhui Province, is the former driving the development of the latter or the latter driving the development of the former? The solution of these problems provides the basis for the policy making of relevant departments. In order to investigate the relationship between new-type industrialization and new-type urbanization in Anhui Province, this paper first measures the level of new-type industrialization in Anhui Province, and examines the level of new-type industrialization from industrial structure and industrialization stage, respectively. Then, by constructing the evaluation index system of 22 indexes and combining the grey correlation method, the author calculates the comprehensive index of new industrialization in Anhui Province from 1992 to 2011, and finds that the overall trend is rising except for the decline of individual years. Secondly, it analyzes the process and performance of urbanization in Anhui Province since the founding of the people's Republic of China, and then calculates the comprehensive index of new urbanization in Anhui Province from 1992 to 2011 by using the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and according to the selected indicators. The results show that the new urbanization in Anhui Province developed slowly from 1992 to 2005, but the new urbanization developed rapidly in 2006-2011. On the basis of calculating the comprehensive index of new-type industrialization and new-type urbanization of Anhui Province from 1992 to 2011, this paper studies the relationship between them from coordination and dynamic analysis. With the help of entropy equation and coupling coordination degree, the coordination degree between them is studied from the qualitative and quantitative aspects, and it is found that they are developing more and more harmoniously. In the cointegration analysis, the co-integration equation is given and the Granger test shows that the new industrialization is the Granger cause of the new urbanization change, but the latter is not the Granger cause of the former. The further pulse response analysis and variance decomposition show that the improvement of the new industrialization level will promote the development of the new urbanization, and the new urbanization level will also have a certain impact on the impact effect of the new industrialization. But not so strong, there is a weak positive push, and over time there is an increasing trend. Finally, this paper briefly gives some relevant suggestions to promote the coordinated development of the two: optimizing the industrial structure, developing green economy; promoting the urbanization of migrant workers; coordinating the regional development of the province, and improving the modern urban system.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F427;F299.27
本文编号：2216706
[Abstract]:Since the 16th National Congress, the national documents on new-type industrialization and new-type urbanization guidance policy. The 18th National Congress put forward the requirement of developing new urbanization. In promoting new-type industrialization and new-type urbanization, the two cannot ignore one another. Like the whole country, the level of urbanization in Anhui Province has lagged behind the level of industrialization. What is the relationship between the two? for Anhui Province, is the former driving the development of the latter or the latter driving the development of the former? The solution of these problems provides the basis for the policy making of relevant departments. In order to investigate the relationship between new-type industrialization and new-type urbanization in Anhui Province, this paper first measures the level of new-type industrialization in Anhui Province, and examines the level of new-type industrialization from industrial structure and industrialization stage, respectively. Then, by constructing the evaluation index system of 22 indexes and combining the grey correlation method, the author calculates the comprehensive index of new industrialization in Anhui Province from 1992 to 2011, and finds that the overall trend is rising except for the decline of individual years. Secondly, it analyzes the process and performance of urbanization in Anhui Province since the founding of the people's Republic of China, and then calculates the comprehensive index of new urbanization in Anhui Province from 1992 to 2011 by using the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and according to the selected indicators. The results show that the new urbanization in Anhui Province developed slowly from 1992 to 2005, but the new urbanization developed rapidly in 2006-2011. On the basis of calculating the comprehensive index of new-type industrialization and new-type urbanization of Anhui Province from 1992 to 2011, this paper studies the relationship between them from coordination and dynamic analysis. With the help of entropy equation and coupling coordination degree, the coordination degree between them is studied from the qualitative and quantitative aspects, and it is found that they are developing more and more harmoniously. In the cointegration analysis, the co-integration equation is given and the Granger test shows that the new industrialization is the Granger cause of the new urbanization change, but the latter is not the Granger cause of the former. The further pulse response analysis and variance decomposition show that the improvement of the new industrialization level will promote the development of the new urbanization, and the new urbanization level will also have a certain impact on the impact effect of the new industrialization. But not so strong, there is a weak positive push, and over time there is an increasing trend. Finally, this paper briefly gives some relevant suggestions to promote the coordinated development of the two: optimizing the industrial structure, developing green economy; promoting the urbanization of migrant workers; coordinating the regional development of the province, and improving the modern urban system.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F427;F299.27
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 胡彬;从工业化与城市化的关系探讨我国城市化问题[J];财经研究;2000年08期
2 余华银;杨烨军;;安徽新型工业化与城市化关系研究[J];财贸研究;2007年01期
3 孟素洁,黄序;北京市农村城市化评价指标体系[J];城市问题;2004年04期
4 谢春;李健;;中国特色新型工业化评价指标体系构建及实证分析[J];系统工程;2011年03期
5 庞瑞芝;李鹏;路永刚;;转型期间我国新型工业化增长绩效及其影响因素研究——基于“新型工业化”生产力视角[J];中国工业经济;2011年04期
6 王志凌;何雪;;小议城市化与城镇化[J];消费导刊;2008年10期
7 周干峙;;探索中国特色的城市化之路[J];理论参考;2010年02期
8 李爱军,谈志浩,陆春锋,张一飞;城市化水平综合指数测度方法探讨——以江苏无锡市、泰州市为例[J];经济地理;2004年01期
9 吴亚燕;建立新型工业化评价指标体系的思考[J];江苏统计;2003年04期
10 廖重斌;环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系——以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J];热带地理;1999年02期
，本文编号：2216706
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/touziyanjiulunwen/2216706.html
