中国互联网企业的估值方法研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 19:00

本文选题：中国互联网企业　切入点：DEA方法　出处：《北京外国语大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：互联网行业,自21世纪于我国兴起以来发展迅猛,行内的收购、兼并、上市、重组活动也日趋频繁,引起了社会的高度重视,也成为资本市场最为关注的领域。但由于该行业技术更新换代频繁,巨大的升值空间背后往往伴随着亏损,传统的估值方法或将不再适用。合理地为互联网企业估值,成为了重要且迫切的问题。本文针对互联网企业的发展现状和经济特点,比较传统估值方法的适用性与局限性,并介绍和分析一种比较适用于互联网企业的混合估值方法,即DEA(数据包络分析)乘数估值模型。本文首先分析了国内互联网企业的现状,梳理了互联网企业不同于传统企业的发展特点和商业模式。其次,本文将几种常用的传统估值方法分为绝对估值技术和相对估值技术进行讨论,并针对其在互联网企业估值时的适用性和局限性进行分析。最后,基于传统估值模型和互联网企业的特点,本文提出结合DEA模型和相对估值法中的市销率和市毛率乘数,以及非财务指标乘数——市值比活跃用户数平方作为对样本互联网企业进行估值。本文以在纳斯达克上市的中国互联网企业为样本,以2015年为估值期限,测试了不同输入变量(DEA)、不同可比企业选择方式及不同财务和非财务指标乘数对于估值准确度的影响。本文针对十二种估值结果与该企业实际市场价值进行比较分析,并证明该估值模型对于估值以及股价趋势的判断存在一定合理性和实用性,为中国互联网企业的价值评估提供一定的参考作用。
[Abstract]:The Internet industry has developed rapidly since the rise of our country in the 21st century. The acquisition, merger, listing and reorganization activities in the industry are becoming more and more frequent, which has aroused the high attention of the society. But because of the frequent technological changes in the industry, the huge room for appreciation is often accompanied by losses, and traditional valuation methods may no longer be applicable. This paper compares the applicability and limitation of traditional valuation methods, and introduces and analyzes a hybrid valuation method which is more suitable for Internet enterprises. This paper first analyzes the current situation of domestic Internet enterprises, combs the development characteristics and business models of Internet enterprises different from traditional enterprises. In this paper, several traditional valuation methods are divided into absolute valuation technique and relative valuation technique, and their applicability and limitation in Internet enterprise valuation are analyzed. Based on the traditional valuation model and the characteristics of Internet enterprises, this paper proposes a combination of the DEA model and the relative valuation method of the market sales rate and market gross rate multiplier. And the non-financial index multiplier-market value values the sample Internet companies as compared to the square of active users. This paper takes the NASDAQ listed Chinese Internet companies as the sample and 2015 as the valuation period. The effects of different input variables, different selection methods of comparable enterprises and different financial and non-financial index multipliers on the accuracy of valuation are tested. This paper compares twelve valuation results with the actual market value of the enterprise. It is proved that the valuation model has some rationality and practicability to judge the valuation and stock price trend, which provides a certain reference for the value evaluation of Chinese Internet enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：北京外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F49;F275

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