日本泡沫经济与美国IT泡沫的比较研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 00:33

本文选题：日本泡沫经济　切入点：美国IT泡沫　出处：《江西师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：20世纪末在日本和美国所发生的两次经济泡沫虽然都以破裂而告终,但从事后来看后果有较大差异。日本因为泡沫破裂,经济进入了长期衰退过程,被称为“失去的二十年”。而美国在IT泡沫破裂后,实体经济并没有受到长期的恶劣影响。为了探清其原由,本文运用理论分析、实证分析等方法,从形成因素、泡沫破裂前后的相关政策等视角对20世纪80年代的日本和20世纪90年代的美国不同类型的泡沫形成进行了较为系统的比较研究。通过比较发现,日本在泡沫发生前所采取的一系列政策与当时的社会背景共同发生作用,诱发了经济泡沫。同时错失了遏制泡沫的良好时机,导致泡沫破裂。泡沫破裂后,没有及时处理不良债权等严重后遗症。而美国在IT泡沫发生前,因为克林顿政府所实施的经济金融政策解决了当时美国经济中存在的问题,夯实了经济基础。但也为IT泡沫的形成扎下了病根。IT泡沫破裂后美联储在正确的时机积极降息,阻止了恶劣影响的蔓延。所以日本泡沫破裂的影响要比美国的严重。本文的内容由五章组成。在第一章导论中对泡沫与泡沫经济等相关概念进行了界定与探讨,对国内外与泡沫有关的研究进行了综述。第二章对日本和美国的泡沫形成因素进行了研究。对日本在20世纪80年代末泡沫的形成因素的分析主要从金融自由化、广场协议以及生财术(投机活动)这几个方面进行。对于美国新经济时代的网络股泡沫的形成因素分析主要从IT产业的发展、对于IT产业的乐观预期以及20世纪90年代美国低利率和股价高涨这几个方面进行。第三章对泡沫的表现特征进行了分析,对日本和美国在20世纪末泡沫表现与泡沫破裂后的不同后果进行了研究。日本在泡沫破裂后陷入了被称为“失去的二十年”的长期衰退过程,而美国新经济网络股泡沫破裂后对其经济影响比较轻微,即它们的经济调整在泡沫破裂后分别表现为“L”形和“V”形。第四章首先对日本与美国在泡沫破裂前的相关政策进行了研究,并对这些政策进行了评价与比较。从解决与美国的贸易摩擦开始,日本所采取的政策一步一步导致泡沫经济的发生,而且在1987年错失了遏制泡沫的良机,最终导致泡沫破裂。而美国在克林顿政府的带领下,解决了当时经济的严重问题,夯实了实体经济基础,但也促进了所谓的“新经济时代”的到来。其次对日本与美国在泡沫破裂后的相关政策进行了分析,之后对这些政策进行了评价与比较。在对泡沫问题的认识上,日本政策当局低估了泡沫的崩溃对实体经济所带来的负面影响,没有及时进行相关体制的配套改革,政策也缺乏连贯性。而美联储在美国网络股泡沫破裂后及时频繁降息,对防止经济衰退和促进经济复苏有较明显的效果。第五章为结论。
[Abstract]:Although the two bubbles that occurred in Japan and the United States in the late 20th century ended in bursting, the consequences are quite different in hindsight.Japan's economy has entered a long-term recession because of the bursting of the bubble, known as the "lost two decades."After the IT bubble burst, the real economy did not suffer a long-term adverse impact.In order to find out the reasons, this paper uses theoretical analysis, empirical analysis and other methods, from the forming factors,From the perspective of relevant policies before and after the bubble burst, this paper makes a systematic comparative study on the formation of different types of bubbles in Japan in the 1980s and in the United States in the 1990s.Through comparison, it is found that a series of policies adopted by Japan before the bubble occurred together with the social background at that time, which induced the economic bubble.At the same time missed a good time to contain the bubble, resulting in the bubble burst.Bubble burst, not in time to deal with bad debts and other serious sequelae.Before the IT bubble, because the economic and financial policies implemented by the Clinton administration solved the existing problems in the American economy and consolidated the economic base.But it also set the root of the IT bubble. After the IT bubble burst, the Fed actively cut interest rates at the right time, preventing the spread of bad effects.So the impact of the bursting of the Japanese bubble was more severe than that of the United States.The content of this paper consists of five chapters.In the first chapter, the concepts of foam and foam economy are defined and discussed, and the research on foam at home and abroad is summarized.The second chapter studies the factors of bubble formation in Japan and the United States.The analysis of the forming factors of Japan's bubble in the late 1980s is mainly carried out from the aspects of financial liberalization, the Plaza Accord, and the means of generating money (speculation).The forming factors of the dotcom stock bubble in the new economic era of the United States are analyzed from the following aspects: the development of IT industry, the optimistic expectation of IT industry and the low interest rate and high stock price of the United States in the 1990s.In the third chapter, the characteristics of bubbles are analyzed, and the different consequences of bubbles in Japan and the United States in the late 20th century and after bubbles burst are studied.Japan plunged into a long recession after the bubble burst, known as the "lost two decades," while America's new economic dotcom bubble had less impact on its economy.That is, their economic adjustment in the bubble burst after the performance of the "L" shape and "V" shape.In the fourth chapter, the relative policies of Japan and the United States before the bubble burst are studied, and these policies are evaluated and compared.Starting with resolving trade frictions with the United States, Japan's policy led to the emergence of a bubble economy step by step, and in 1987, missed the opportunity to contain the bubble, eventually leading to the bubble burst.Under the leadership of the Clinton administration, the United States solved the serious problems of the economy at that time, consolidated the real economic base, but also promoted the arrival of the so-called "new economic era."Secondly, this paper analyzes the relevant policies of Japan and America after the bubble burst, and then evaluates and compares these policies.On the understanding of bubble problem, Japanese policy authorities underestimate the negative impact of bubble collapse on real economy, fail to carry out relevant system reform in time, and lack consistency of policy.And the Fed cut interest rates frequently in time after the bursting of the dotcom bubble, which had obvious effects on preventing recession and promoting economic recovery.Chapter five is the conclusion.
【学位授予单位】：江西师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F131.3;F49.12

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