移动电话新增市场需求与影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-04-11 03:06

本文选题：电信运营商 + 移动电话新增市场　；参考：《系统工程》2013年10期

【摘要】：基于31省的经济发展、社会发展、人口指标等统计数据,建立了影响手机用户普及率的线性回归模型,得出了影响手机用户普及率的关键因素,并以湖南的数据为基础对模型进行了实证。同时,基于三寡头静态需求模型,并根据NASH均衡的特性,构建了移动电话新增市场需求模型,基于双寡头动态博弈模型,构建了移动电话新增市场动态需求模型。本文认为,移动电话市场普及率与当地的经济发展水平息息相关。移动电话新增市场是充分竞争市场,目前主要表现为价格竞争。在价格竞争的前提下,若先行动者的价格水平小于或等于某一常数,先行动者将获得先发优势。但是,价格对于移动电话市场需求的作用最终将受制于移动电话的现实普及率,受制于当地的经济发展水平、人口构成情况、人口增长情况和人口流动流动情况。
[Abstract]:Based on the economic development, social development, population indicators and other statistical data of 31 provinces, a linear regression model is established to influence the penetration rate of mobile phone users, and the key factors affecting the penetration rate of mobile phone users are obtained.Based on the data of Hunan Province, this paper makes an empirical study of the model.At the same time, based on the static demand model of three oligarchs and the characteristics of NASH equilibrium, the new market demand model of mobile phone is constructed. Based on the dynamic game model of duopoly, the dynamic demand model of new market of mobile phone is constructed.This paper believes that the penetration rate of mobile phone market is closely related to the level of local economic development.The new mobile phone market is a fully competitive market, the main performance of the current price competition.Under the premise of price competition, if the price level of the first agent is less than or equal to a constant, the first agent will obtain the first-mover advantage.However, the effect of price on the demand of mobile phone market will ultimately be restricted by the real penetration rate of mobile phone, the level of local economic development, population composition, population growth and population mobility.
【作者单位】：北京邮电大学经济管理学院;
【分类号】：F626

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