通信服务配套产业海外转移的风险分析及防范

发布时间：2018-08-02 19:52

【摘要】：当前,伴随着跨国公司新一轮的全球产业布局,世界范围内服务业也加快了向海外市场转移的步伐,同时发展中国家也在不断地加大走出去的力度,加速实施海外经营战略,并带动了相关产业的国际转移。在企业国际化以及随之而来的产业国际转移过程中,无可避免地会面临各种国际风险的威胁与制约。在我国,通信服务配套产业作为通信服务行业的辅业,随着自身业务扩展需要及与其有战略合作关系的大型通信设备制造商等的海外扩张,也开始了向海外加速转移的步伐。同国际上前几次产业转移相比,不同之处在于我国相关产业的转移目的地主要集中在亚非拉等发展中国家或欠发达地区,通信服务配套产业也不例外。该产业在海外转移的过程中面临着复杂的国际风险,因而研究各类国际风险对该产业海外转移的影响,通过相关方法识别、评估出主要风险,并制定出有效的风险防范措施,对于促进该产业及相关产业的海外转移具有重要意义。本文的研究较以往不同之处在于,之前国内外学者关于风险的研究主要是基于国际企业的视角入手,同时往往也只针对其中某一风险展开分析,国内也有学者从承接国外产业转移或西部承接东部产业转移的风险来进行研究,少有对我国向外产业转移进行研究,在一定意义上也具有创新性,同时研究的视角也紧密地围绕产业的海外转移与企业国际化进程展开。本文以通信服务配套产业海外转移的风险分析及防范为主题,通过相关方法的归纳、识别、测度出影响转移的主要风险因素,然后结合实例进行数据论证。在紧密结合专家打分法、风险矩阵评估法、Borda序值法等方法的基础上,有效地评估了关键风险,然后对各关键风险进行有效地剖析并提出相应的防范对策。全文研究主要包括三个部分：理论推导、实证研究、结论。在理论导出部分,首先第一章先介绍了国际产业转移的现状及面临的风险,接着对开展此研究的意义进行了简述,然后回顾了国内外关于国际产业转移及国际风险管理理论的研究成果并对其进行了综述。最后在通过对国内外学者关于国际风险因素及其识别防范等研究成果的学习与总结,在吸收前人成果精华的同时,结合通信服务产业本身的特点及其海外转移现状,形成了本文的主导研究思想,并提出了相应的理论假设和研究框架；文章第二章先对国际产业转移的风险概念进行了界定,然后从已有的风险识别方法着手搭建了国际产业转移整合风险的分析框架并对国际风险进行了细分。在明晰了风险识别方法后,对风险评估的决定因素进行了分析并导出本文主要的评估方法—风险矩阵评估法。在本章的最后对国际产业转移风险防范的基本手段进行了描述,并对防范体系的基本流程进行了概括；文章第三章对通信服务配套产业的发展现状进行了较为全面的介绍,鉴于该产业的行业特殊性,文章先对该产业进行了一般意义的界定,然后对产业发展现状从业务板块的构成情况及区域分布进行了概况,最后则从介绍该产业的海外转移战略着手,分析了该产业海外转移所面临的困难,为实证部分的研究提供有效的支撑。在实证研究部分,运用理论研究方法并结合问卷结果,对国际风险进行了定量的分析,进而对宏、中、微观三个层面里影响该产业海外转移的关键风险因素进行了排序,从而找到了解决问题的方向。最后在有效地识别、测度并评估出关键风险因素的基础上,本文有针对性的提出了相关的防范措施。具体来讲,从第四章开始,首先按照风险环境分析法,将风险集划分为三个层面、11个风险模块,然后通过对通信服务领域的10位专家或者管理者进行访谈及问卷调查,由专家组按照相关标准筛选出了他们认为最重要的共7个影响产业转移的关键风险模块,借此风险的评估围绕在7个风险模块中展开;然后通过问卷的形式由10位专家分别就7大关键风险模块的风险等级分值与风险发生概率进行打分,借此算出风险等级的量化值。之后通过采用Borda序值法对各风险因素或者模块的重要性进行两两比较,进而根据层次分析法的路径计算出各风险模块的权重,并根据写作的一定条件对每个风险模块重要性程度的准确风险权重进行赋值。最后通过公式:RVi=RRi×RWi计算出综合风险等级量化值,筛选出7个风险模块的重要顺序。通过对通信服务配套产业海外转移所面临的主要风险的评估,本文认为财务风险、宏观经济风险、政治风险、市场风险、竞争风险等五大风险,是阻碍该产业向海外转移的重要制约性因素；第五章则从政治风险、外汇风险、市场风险、竞争风险以及财务风险等五方面的风险进行了分析并提出了具体的防范措施。在结论部分,通过研究分析之后,对我国相关服务产业海外转移提出了一些具有共性的总结,主要有三点：1、产业海外转移风险繁多且难以把握。不同类型的产业面临的风险类型尽管大同小异,但是每一种风险对其造成的影响程度有较大差异；2、对于产业海外转移的风险防范,需要建立一整套较为完善系统的方法或者解决措施。风险的识别非常重要,要力求完善；3、在产业海外转移的风险防范过程中,风险识别是基础,风险的正确评估是风险管理的关键,而采取正确的风险管理策略则是产业海外转移风险防范的核心。三个步骤结合紧密,共同构成一个整体的系统。同时在文章的最后针对本文的不足之处进行了说明,并对未来的研究提出了相关的展望。
[Abstract]:At present, with the new round of global industrial layout of multinational companies, service industry in the world has also accelerated the pace of transfer to overseas markets. Meanwhile, developing countries are also increasing the strength of going out, speeding up the implementation of overseas business strategy, and promoting international transfer of related industries. In the process of industry international transfer, it is unavoidable to face the threat and restriction of various international risks. In our country, as the auxiliary industry of the communication service industry, the communication service supporting industry has also begun to accelerate the overseas expansion along with the expansion of its own business expansion and the large communication equipment manufacturers with its strategic cooperation. The pace.
Compared with the previous industrial transfer in the world, the difference lies in that the transfer purpose of the related industries in China is concentrated in developing and underdeveloped regions such as Asia and Africa, and the supporting industry of communication services is no exception. It is of great significance to promote the overseas transfer of the industry and related industries. The research in this paper is different from that in the past, which is mainly based on the international business. At the same time, at the same time, it is often only analyzed for one of the risks. There are also scholars in China to undertake research on the risks of undertaking foreign industrial transfer or the Western undertaking of eastern industrial transfer, and few studies on the transfer of foreign industry in China, in a sense, it is also innovative, and the perspective of the research is closely related to the industry. The transfer of overseas and the process of enterprise internationalization.
This paper takes the risk analysis and prevention as the theme of the overseas transfer of the communication service industry. Through the induction of relevant methods, it identifies and measures the main risk factors that affect the transfer, and then combines the examples to demonstrate the data. On the basis of close combination of expert scoring, risk matrix assessment and Borda order value method, it is effectively evaluated. The key risks are analyzed and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward. The full text includes three parts: theoretical derivation, empirical research, and conclusion.
In the first chapter, the first chapter introduces the current situation and the risks of international industry transfer, then gives a brief introduction to the significance of this research, and then reviews the research results on international industry transfer and international risk management theory at home and abroad and reviews it. Finally, it has been passed to domestic and foreign scholars. The study and summary of international risk factors and their identification and prevention, while absorbing the essence of previous achievements, combined with the characteristics of the communication service industry and the status of overseas transfer, formed the leading research ideas of this article, and put forward the corresponding theoretical hypothesis and research framework; the second chapter of the article first transferred to the international industry. The concept of risk is defined, and then from the existing risk identification methods, the analysis framework of international industrial transfer integration risk is set up and international risk is subdivided. After clarifying the risk identification method, the determinants of risk assessment are analyzed and the main evaluation method of this paper, risk matrix assessment, is derived. At the end of this chapter, the basic means of risk prevention for international industry transfer are described, and the basic process of the prevention system is summarized. The third chapter of the article is a more comprehensive introduction to the development status of the communication service industry. In view of the industry particularity, the article first carries out the general intention of the industry. The definition of righteousness, and then the situation of the industry development status from the composition and regional distribution of the business sector, and at the end of the introduction of the overseas transfer strategy of the industry, analysis of the difficulties faced by the overseas transfer of the industry, and provide effective support for the empirical part of the research.
In the part of the empirical study, the theoretical research method and the result of the questionnaire are used to analyze the international risk quantitatively, and then the key risk factors which affect the overseas transfer of the industry in macro, middle and micro three levels are sorted, and the solution to the problem is found. Finally, the key wind is effectively identified, measured and evaluated. On the basis of the risk factors, this paper puts forward relevant preventive measures. Specifically, starting from the fourth chapter, first according to the risk environment analysis method, the risk set is divided into three levels, 11 risk modules, and then through the interview and questionnaire survey of 10 experts or managers in the field of communication services, by the expert group According to the relevant standards, the key risk modules, which are considered to be the most important factors affecting industrial transfer, are selected, and the risk assessment is carried out around 7 risk modules, and then the risk rating and risk probability of the 7 key risk modules are divided by 10 experts through the form of questionnaire, and the risk is calculated by the 10 experts. Then the Borda order value method is used to compare the importance of each risk factor or module, then the weight of each risk module is calculated according to the path of the analytic hierarchy process, and the weight of the accurate risk weight of each risk module is assigned according to the certain conditions of the writing. RVi=RRi x RWi calculates the quantitative value of the comprehensive risk grade and selects the important order of the 7 risk modules. Through the assessment of the main risks faced by the overseas transfer of the telecommunication service industry, this paper considers that the financial risk, the macroeconomic risk, the political risk, the market risk, the competitive risk and so on are the five risks, which are hindering the industry to overseas. The important restrictive factors of transfer; the fifth chapter analyzes and puts forward specific precautionary measures from five aspects of political risk, foreign exchange risk, market risk, competition risk and financial risk.
In the conclusion part, after the research and analysis, we put forward some common summaries to the overseas transfer of related service industries in China. There are three main points: 1, the risks of the industry overseas transfer are various and difficult to grasp. The risk types of different types of industries are different, but the degree of impact of each kind of risk is more than that of the same. 2, for the risk prevention of industry overseas transfer, it is necessary to establish a complete set of systematic methods or solutions. The identification of risk is very important and must be improved. 3, risk identification is the basis of risk identification in the process of risk prevention in the transfer of industry overseas, and the correct assessment of risk is the key to risk management, and it is correct to take the correct assessment. The risk management strategy is the core of risk prevention in the industry overseas transfer. Three steps are combined to form a whole system together. At the same time, the shortcomings of this paper are explained at the end of the article, and the future research is put forward.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F626

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