我国城乡居民收入差距的数理经济模型及其实证

发布时间：2018-01-05 19:13

本文关键词：我国城乡居民收入差距的数理经济模型及其实证　出处：《电子科技大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放三十多年以来，随着我国国民经济的快速发展，我国的国民收入分配格局也随之发生较大的变化。总的来看，我国城乡居民收入差距呈现出先下降，再上升，然后保持持续扩大的趋势。目前，我国过大的城乡收入差距引起了国家各相关部门的极大重视，为了国家的稳定发展和可持续发展，我们应该在缩小城乡收入差距方面给出相应的解决办法，以便让城乡收入差距维持在一个合理的范围之内。对我国城乡收入差距的研究，现有的文献主要是从以下两个方面进行研究，一方面是衡量城乡之间收入差距的程度并预测其未来的发展趋势；另一方面则是研究我国城乡收入差距的具体成因。前人对城乡收入差距成因方面的研究大部分停留在描述性分析上，对我国城乡居民收入差距的变化趋势的稳定性分析还有待发展。本文的重点是通过建立数理经济模型来分析我国城乡收入差距的影响因素，并对城乡收入差距的变化趋势进行相关的稳定性分析。最后在此理论基础上，给出一些有建设性的意见和方法。主要研究内容有： 1.在对收入分配的影响因素进行分析的基础上，利用1998—2009年的人均GDP、所有制结构、城乡居民收入比等数据，建立一个回归模型分析所有制结构的演变与居民收入的关系，进而通过协整分析和格兰杰因果检验，对二元经济结构与城乡居民收入差距之间的数量关系进行了分析和检验。研究结论表明：转型期所有制结构的演变以及二元经济结构是我国居民收入差距呈扩大趋势的根本原因，二元经济结构与城乡居民收入差距之间具有单向的格兰杰因果关系。 2.通过建立一类控制论模型对我国城乡收入差距的变化趋势作出预测，同时对该模型进行稳定性分析。结果表明：我国城乡收入差距会在今后较长一段时间内保持持续渐近稳定的增长，但这个差距会控制在一定的范围内。通过对我国城乡居民收入差距的影响因素的研究及稳定性分析的基础上，，文章在最后给出相关的结论和建议。
[Abstract]:After more than 30 years of reform and opening - up , with the rapid development of our national economy , our country ' s national income distribution pattern has changed greatly . In general , the income gap of urban and rural residents of our country has been declining first , then rising , and then maintaining the trend of sustained expansion . At present , our country ' s large urban and rural income gap has caused great attention of the relevant departments of the country . In order to achieve the stable development and sustainable development of the country , we should give the corresponding solution in reducing the income gap between the urban and rural areas , so as to keep the urban and rural income gap within a reasonable range . This paper studies the gap between urban and rural income in China . The existing literature is mainly from the following two aspects : one is to measure the income gap between urban and rural areas and to forecast the future development trend ; on the other hand , it is a study on the causes of the gap between urban and rural income . The emphasis of this paper is to analyze the influencing factors of the income gap between urban and rural residents . 1 . Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of income distribution , using the data of per capita GDP , ownership structure and income ratio of urban and rural residents in 1998 - 2009 , a regression model is established to analyze the relationship between the evolution of ownership structure and the income of residents . 2 . Through the establishment of a kind of cybernetic model to forecast the change trend of urban and rural income gap in China , the stability analysis of the model is carried out . The results show that the gap between urban and rural income of China will maintain steady and stable growth over a long period of time , but this gap will be controlled within a certain range . Based on the research and stability analysis of the influencing factors of the income gap of urban and rural residents in China , the relevant conclusions and recommendations are given in the end .

【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124.7

【参考文献】