日本政府宏观经济调控手段研究（1985~2003年）

发布时间：2018-03-05 20:53

本文选题：日本　切入点：泡沫　出处：《广东外语外贸大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：统计分析表明，，20世纪80年代以来日本的投资是经济增长的主要影响因素，有效的投资增长主要取决于出口。在广场协议之后外需受阻的背景下，政府实施凯恩斯主义的拉动内需政策，希望通过拉升内需以替代衰退的外需，但效果不佳，因为此时的日本经济增长由外需拉动。上世纪八十年代的日本经济已经进入了“新供给约束型经济”，其基本特征是：第一，经济总量和人均量都位居世界前茅，且收入分配没有太大问题，消费基本稳定；第二，经济高涨主要依赖出口，投资的主要影响因素是出口。以乘数原理为例，其重要前提是经济中以投资需求为主的内需不足，且投资的主要影响因素是金融变量——货币量或利率，这与日本的投资函数严重不符，较前大增的货币必另寻出路。同时，日本实行的“利率市场化”促使金融机构将大量的货币引向了股市和楼市，造成了有经济增长华丽外表的泡沫。泡沫破灭后，日本政府所采取的一系列积极财政政策和货币政策基本上无效，这是因为经济低迷主要是出口受阻造成的，同时日本又不可能以新科技革命发动“有效供给”以引领内需，外需也受到不利的国际经济环境制约，因此，日本近期的经济前景仍将持续低迷。
[Abstract]:Statistical analysis shows that since 80s of the 20th century, Japanese investment has been the main influencing factor of economic growth, and the effective investment growth mainly depends on exports. The government implemented a Keynesian policy to boost domestic demand in the hope that it would replace declining external demand by boosting domestic demand, but with poor results. In -20s, Japan's economy entered the "new supply-constrained economy." its basic characteristics are as follows: first, the total economic volume and the per capita amount of the economy are among the highest in the world. Moreover, income distribution is not too big a problem, consumption is basically stable; second, the economic upsurge is mainly dependent on exports, and the main influencing factor of investment is exports. Taking the multiplier principle as an example, its important premise is that domestic demand, which is dominated by investment demand, is insufficient in the economy. Moreover, the main influencing factor of investment is the amount of money or interest rate, which is seriously inconsistent with the investment function of Japan, and the currency that has increased more than before will have to find another way out. At the same time, Japan's "interest-rate liberalization" prompted financial institutions to channel large amounts of money into stock and housing markets, creating bubbles that had a flamboyant appearance of economic growth. After the bubble burst, a series of active fiscal and monetary policies adopted by the Japanese government were basically ineffective, because the economic downturn was mainly caused by export blockages. At the same time, it is impossible for Japan to launch the "effective supply" with the new technological revolution to lead domestic demand, and the external demand is also restricted by the unfavorable international economic environment. Therefore, Japan's economic prospects in the near future will remain low.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F131.3

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