我国家户贫困脆弱性的测度与分解——一个新的分析思路

发布时间：2018-03-06 11:46

本文选题：家户　切入点：贫困脆弱性　出处：《社会科学研究》2014年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文提出了一种反向VEP的贫困脆弱性测度方法,以个人或家户在将来维持某一返贫概率之上的最小福利水平测度家户脆弱性,从而更好地测算了在不同水平基础上我国家户脆弱性值及其结构特征。对家户脆弱性变动和家户脆弱性差距进行分解分析的研究结果表明,导致家户脆弱性发生恶化的原因不仅是均值或方差的单向变动,更是两者的同等幅度变动;家户脆弱性差距的存在则是家户规模、家户支出和家庭负担导致的,其中家户支出是影响脆弱性强弱差距最重要的贡献因素,其Shapley分解贡献程度高达73.10%!基于此,扶贫政策的制定应当有一定的区别。对于低收入家户,改变其结构性贫困的境地是最主要的,只有彻底提高收入水平或者完全控制不受风险冲击才能使其维持在一定的返贫水平之内;对于较高收入家户,事前预警和风险防范以及事后提供合适的风险抵御工具都可以帮助其避免陷入再次贫困境地。
[Abstract]:In this paper, an inverse VEP poverty vulnerability measurement method is proposed to measure household vulnerability at the minimum welfare level above a certain probability of returning to poverty in the future. In order to better calculate the vulnerability value and its structural characteristics of our country on the basis of different levels, the results of decomposition and analysis of household vulnerability variation and household vulnerability gap show that, The cause of the deterioration of household vulnerability is not only the one-way change of mean value or variance, but also the same amplitude change of both, and the existence of household vulnerability gap is caused by household size, household expenditure and household burden. Household expenditure is the most important contribution factor to the vulnerability gap, its Shapley decomposition contribution is as high as 73.10! Based on this, there should be some differences in the formulation of poverty alleviation policies. For low-income households, it is most important to change their structural poverty. Only a thorough increase in income levels or complete control over the impact of risk can keep them within a certain level of return to poverty; for higher-income households, Forewarning and risk prevention, as well as the provision of appropriate risk defenses after the event, can help them avoid a relapse into poverty.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(011&ZD006);国家社会科学基金重点项目(010AZD013)
【分类号】：F124.7;F224

【共引文献】