工业化与驼峰型经济增长

发布时间：2018-03-14 23:04

本文选题：工业化　切入点：产业结构转型　出处：《武汉大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：从世界范围来看,经济并没有出现如新古典经济所暗含的绝对趋同现象,而是呈现出俱乐部趋同趋势,一方面中等收入国家和低收入国家之间增长趋异,另一方面中等收入国家和高收入国家之间增长趋同,中等收入国家的经济增长率最高。从中国经济的发展历程来看,在经历了长达三十年的高速增长后,其GDP增长率出现了下降,并且本轮经济增长减速并非是外部冲击造成的周期型减速。中国已经难以再回到两位数的高速增长时期,而是进入了中高速增长的新常态。针对这些现象,本文提出了以下问题：为什么中等收入国家具有较高的经济增长率?为什么中国的高速增长难以持续?新常态下中国工业发展何去何从?本文的整体安排如下：第一章是论文的绪论部分,介绍了选题的背景和意义,研究的思路、方法,论文的创新与不足,并对后续研究进行了展望。第二章文献综述部分,从卡尔多定律、产业转型和中国经济增长三条主线对现有文献进行梳理,并给出评价。第三章分析了长期经济增长过程的阶段与特征事实,结合工业的经济增长引擎作用和产业结构转型,构建了工业化与驼峰型经济增长趋势之间的联系。第四章分析了中国经济增长趋势,从卡尔多定律的适用性和工业部门较高TFP增长率分析了产业结构转型前期,工业化对中国经济高速增长的贡献。第五章分析了中国工业部门地位的转换和产业结构的服务业化,为中国经济增长率下降提供了解释。第六章集中讨论新常态下中国工业部门的地位并且通过国际比较分析了未来中国工业结构升级问题。最后,第七章对论文的主要结论进行了概括,并提出可行的政策建议。本文在理论分析和实证研究的基础上,得出了以下结论：第一,工业是经济增长的引擎,生产效率增长高于农业和服务业。工业的引擎作用源于劳动分工、干中学、集聚与知识外溢、高RD投入带来的技术进步和规模效应以及吸收农业剩余劳动力的资源再配置效应。第二,随收入水平提高,经济增长率会呈现出先增加后减少的驼峰型趋势,这是工业化进程推进、产业结构转型的结果。产业结构转型前期,国家从农业主导型经济转向工业主导型经济,经济增长加速。但是一国的工业部门不可能无限扩大,当经济发展到一定阶段后,在收入增长带来的需求结构变化、部门技术进步差异和资本深化带来的相对价格变化的作用下,工业部门份额出现下降,进入产业结构转型后期。随着产业结构不断服务业化,国家从工业主导型经济转向服务业主导型经济,经济增长减速。因此,工业部门增加值、劳动力份额较高的中等收入国家,其经济增长率也最高,不仅高于农业部门主导的低收入国家,也高于服务部门主导的高收入国家。第三,中国目前正处于从工业主导型经济向服务型主导型经济转换的产业结构转型拐点,因此其增长速度也从先前的高速增长阶段进入中高速增长阶段。中国工业部门的生产效率增长高于农业部门和服务业部门,改革开放以来,工业部门的快速发展使中国经济实现了高速增长,但是人均收入增长、资本深化等因素推动产业结构不断服务化,最终工业部门份额下降,经济也减速增长。第四,新常态下,工业依然是国民经济的关键部门,工业内部结构亟待升级。虽然,工业部门的主导地位逐渐被服务业部门所替代,但是从前后向产业关联的角度来看,工业对经济增长依然重要。此外,国际比较发现,中国以往过度依赖投资的发展方式和高端人才缺乏可能成为中国工业升级的制约因素。针对以上结论,本文的主要政策建议为：正视经济增长减速问题,调整经济增速预期；改变政府主导的资源配置模式,让位市场经济机制；消化过剩产能、淘汰落后产能,适应需求变化；重视技术创新和高端人才培养、促进工业结构升级；协调三次产业发展、优化产业结构,保持经济持续增长。此外,与现有研究相比,本文的主要创新点如下：第一,研究结合工业的引擎作用以及产业结构转型,解释了长期经济增长过程中,经济增长率表现出的先增加后下降的驼峰型趋势。现有经济增长理论多集中于解释经济增长的某个阶段,如着重分析经济发展初期低水平陷阱的马尔萨斯理论,较好解释现代经济增长过程的新古典理论,以及研究过渡时期的发展经济学两部门模型。即便是以长期经济增长为研究对象的统一增长理论也仅包括经济从停滞到增长的过程,但是并未涉及经济起飞之后的减速阶段。本文的研究涉及经济停滞、起飞增长、增长减速阶段,丰富了对长期经济增长过程的认识。第二,研究为中国经济的减速换挡提供了一种新的解释。中国持续三十年的高速增长,被称为中国增长奇迹,但是随着新常态的到来,我国进入了经济增速调整期。关于中国经济连续30年的高速增长奇迹以及当前的经济减速现象,国内外学者有多种解释。有从人口红利,劳动力规模和储蓄率变化的角度解释,有从结构失衡,国内需求不足以及投资过度造成的产能过剩的角度考虑,也有从全要素生产率下降,资源再配置过程减速等角度展开。本研究结合卡尔多定律,从工业化和产业结构转型过程中工业部门地位转换的角度解释这一现象,具有一定的理论价值。第三,研究重新测算了中国工业部门的TFP增长率。本文采用DEA-M指数法对中国工业部门分行业的TFP增长率进行了测算,该方法避免了函数形式错误估计对测算结果造成的影响,而本文与同类DEA-M指数法测算中国工业TFP增长率的区别体现在以下两点：1)使用固定资本存量而非固定资本净值作为资本投入；2)在对TFP增长率的分解上采用了前后假设统一的Ray(1997)方法而非普遍使用的Fare(1994)方法。第四,研究对现阶段中国经济结构和增长进行了国际比较。不少分析中国当前结构转型与经济增长的文献直接将我国目前的各项指标与当今发达国家进行比较,得出我国与发达经济体差距依然巨大的结论。本文将比较对象限定在发展阶段相近的时期,具体来说,将中国指标与发达经济体处于减速换挡时期的指标进行横向比较,得出的结论更具借鉴意义
[Abstract]:From the view of the world, the economy did not appear the phenomenon of absolute convergence of new classical economic implications, but showing a club convergence trend, between a middle income and low income countries divergent growth, on the other hand to middle-income countries and high income countries convergence, middle-income countries from the highest rate of economic growth. The development process of China economy, after thirty years of rapid growth, the growth rate of GDP decreased, and the economic slowdown is cyclical deceleration caused by external impact. Chinese has been difficult to go back to the two digit growth period, but in the rapid growth of the new normal for. These phenomena, this paper puts forward the following questions: why the rate of economic growth in middle-income countries with high growth China? Why is difficult to continue the new? The development of China industry under normal conditions decide on what path to follow? The overall arrangement of the paper is as follows: the first chapter is the introduction part, introduces the background and significance, research ideas, methods, innovations and deficiencies, and the future research are prospected. The second chapter is literature review, from Kaldor's law, industrial restructuring and economic Chinese growth of three lines to sort out the existing literature, and gives the evaluation. The third chapter analyzes the stages and characteristics in the long-term economic growth process, combined with the industrial engine of economic growth and industrial structure transition, constructed between industrialization and economic growth trend of the hump type. The fourth chapter analyzes the China trend of economic growth, from Kaldor the applicability of the law and industrial sectors with higher TFP growth rate to analyze the transformation of industrial structure, industrialization of China contribution to high economic growth. The fifth chapter analysis The conversion of the China industrial sector status and industrial structure of the service industry, providing an explanation for China decline in economic growth. The sixth chapter focuses on the new normal Chinese industry status and through international comparative analysis of the future China upgrading of industrial structure. Finally, the seventh chapter is the main conclusions of the paper are summarized, and put forward feasible policy suggestions. Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical research, draw the following conclusions: first, the industry is the engine of economic growth, the production efficiency is higher than the growth of agriculture and service industry. The industrial engine due to the division of labor, doing, cluster and knowledge spillover, high input technology progress and RD the scale effect and the absorption of surplus agricultural labor resources reallocation effect. Second, with the increase of income, the camel peak rate of economic growth will be showing the first increase and then decrease This is the trend of industrialization, the industrial structure transformation of the early results. The transformation of industrial structure, from the national leading agricultural economy to industrial economy, accelerating economic growth. But a country's industrial sector could not expand indefinitely, when the economy develops to a certain stage, changes in the structure of demand income growth brought about by the Department the difference of the technology progress and capital deepening caused by relative price changes under the action of the industrial sector share fell into the industrial structure transition period. As the industrial structure of the service industry, from the industrial countries leading economy to a service led economy, the slowdown in economic growth. Therefore, industrial added value, a higher share of the labor force middle income countries, the economic growth rate is the highest, not only higher than the agricultural sector led to low income countries, also higher than the service sector leading high-income countries. Three, China is currently in the inflection point of the transformation of industrial structure from industry leading economic transformation to the service oriented, so the growth rate is also rapid growth from the previous stage into the stage of rapid growth. Chinese industrial sector production efficiency is higher than the growth of the agricultural sector and the service sector, since the reform and opening up, the rapid development of the industrial sector the China economy achieved rapid growth, but the per capita income growth, capital deepening and other factors to promote the industrial structure to service, the final industrial sector share decline, economic slowdown growth. Fourth, under the new norm, industry is still the key sector of the national economy, the internal structure of industrial upgrading urgently. Although the dominant position of the industrial sector the service sector is gradually replaced, but from the backward industry association perspective, industry is still important to economic growth. In addition, the international comparison. Now, the development of high-end talent and China past over reliance on investment deficiency may be a limiting factor Chinese industrial upgrading. According to the above conclusions, the main policy suggestions are as follows: face the economic slowdown, the adjustment of economic growth is expected to change the allocation of resources; government leading mode, market economy mechanism way; the digestion of excess capacity, eliminate backward capacity to adapt to changes in demand; attach importance to technological innovation and high-end talent training, promote the upgrading of industrial structure; coordinated development of three industries, optimize the industrial structure, to maintain sustained economic growth. In addition, compared with the existing research, the main innovations of this paper are as follows: first, based on engine industry and industrial restructuring, explain the long-term in the process of economic growth, increase first and then decrease humped trend economic growth rate showed economic growth. The existing theory of multi focus In a stage of economic growth, such as the analysis of Malthus's theory of low level trap in the early stage of economic development, new classical theory explained the process of modern economic growth, and the development of economics is the study of the transition period two sector model. Even in the long-term economic growth as the research object of the unified growth theory also includes only the economy from stagnation to the growth process, but did not involve the deceleration phase after the economic takeoff. This study relates to economic stagnation, off growth, growth deceleration stage, rich in long-term economic growth in the process of understanding. Second. The research provides a new explanation for the slow shift Chinese economy. The rapid growth of Chinese lasting for thirty years. China, known as the miracle of growth, but with the arrival of the new normal, China has entered a period of adjustment on economic growth. China rapid economic growth for 30 consecutive years of odd The trace and the current economic slowdown, the domestic and foreign scholars have different interpretations. From the perspective of demographic dividend, scale and labor savings rate change explanation, from structural imbalance, lack of domestic demand and overcapacity caused by excessive investment point of view, has declined from the total factor productivity, resource reallocation process of deceleration the perspective of this study. Combined with Kaldor's law, from the industrialization and the transformation of industrial structure in the process of converting industrial sector position to explain the phenomenon, has a certain theoretical value. Third research in China, re measure the industrial TFP growth. This paper uses the DEA-M index method to China industry industry growth rate of TFP was calculated, this method avoids the estimation error of function form impact on the measurement results, and the similar DEA-M index method to measure the growth rate of TFP Chinese Industrial Zone Don't lie in the following two points: 1) the use of the stock of fixed capital and net fixed capital as capital investment; 2) in the decomposition of the TFP growth rate was used before and after the assumption of uniform Ray (1997) method rather than the commonly used Fare (1994) method. Fourth, research was carried out on the stage of international comparison China's economic growth and structure analysis. Many China current structure transformation and economic growth in China will direct literature indicators currently compared with the developed countries, come to our country and developed economies, the gap is still huge. The conclusion of this paper will compare the quadrant in similar stages of development period, specifically, the China index with the developed economies in the period of the gear shift indicators of horizontal comparison, the conclusion is more significance

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F424;F124

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