国债规模对经济增长影响的定量研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 23:33

本文选题：国债　切入点：经济增长　出处：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：大萧条过后,凯恩斯主义经济在西方发达国家占据主导地位,它提倡政府采取赤字财政政策促进国家经济增长。但是2009年以来的欧洲债务危机引起了全世界的关注,而且在欧盟的多次努力下,依然无法找到持续有效的解决方案。严重的债务危机问题不但严重影响到经济发展和社会稳定,甚至还引起了政治动荡。由此,本文对国债的有效性产生了怀疑：国债究竟对经济增长产生怎样的影响?如何看待国债对经济增长的影响?这是本论文研究的重点内容。本文首先搜集并整理了大量关于国债对经济增长影响的文献,得知在经济学范围内大致有三种观点：国债负效应论、国债零效应论以及国债正效应论。主张政府主导经济的凯恩斯学派认为,国债的发行对经济增长具有积极影响；自由主义和理性预期学派判断国债对经济增长没有正向影响,甚至会产生负作用。根据以往学者的研究,本文确定了研究对象——OECD国家主权债务。选取OECD国家的原因在于数据资料充足,而且这一经济体是世界经济的代表。在定量研究的初始阶段,本文对OECD国家债务与经济增长的现状做出基本面分析。研究发现,OECD成员国的债务情况普遍不乐观。多数国家的国债负担率、赤字率以及居民应债率均超过国际设定的安全界限(60%、3%以及100%)。同时,虽然日本、美国、英国等国家的债务规模庞大,甚至超过欧洲债务危机的主角(希腊、葡萄牙等国),但这些国家并未发生债务危机。研究发现,双方的主要不同点在于,日美等国侧重于实体经济发展,而希腊等国侧重于福利创造。这说明一国在设定经济发展路线时应注重其经济结构的合理性,注重发展实体经济,提升国际经济竞争力。在上述研究的基础上,本文采用面板数据模型对国债的有效性进行实证研究。结果发现：第一,对经济增长贡献最大的因素是劳动,其次是资本；第二,国债对经济增长没有显著的影响,也不存在滞后效应；第三,在西方国家,采用何种政治制度对经济增长的影响是不显著的,但是,欧元区国家的经济增长比非欧元区国家低。另外,通过国债对资本增长、劳动增长以及科研投资的“引致效应”分析,得知国债对投资具有“挤出效应”,但相对于劳动增长而言,经济增长对资本增长依赖度并不高,甚至逐年下降,所以国债对资本增长的引致效应并没有对经济增长产生显著影响,而国债对劳动增长以及科研投资不存在显著的影响。
[Abstract]:After the Great Depression, Keynesian economies dominated the Western world, advocating deficit fiscal policies to boost national growth. But the European debt crisis since 2009 has attracted worldwide attention. And despite many efforts by the European Union, there is still no way to find a sustainable and effective solution. The serious debt crisis has not only seriously affected economic development and social stability, but also caused political instability. This paper doubts the validity of the national debt: how does the national debt affect the economic growth? How to look at the impact of national debt on economic growth? This is the focus of this paper. This paper first collects and collates a lot of literature on the influence of national debt on economic growth, and finds out that there are three views in the scope of economics: the negative effect of treasury bonds. The Keynesian school that advocates the government leading economy holds that the issuance of national debt has a positive effect on economic growth, and the liberalism and rational expectation school judge that national debt has no positive effect on economic growth. According to the previous studies, this paper determines the research object of OECD countries. The reason for selecting OECD countries is that the data is sufficient, and the economy is the representative of the world economy. In the initial stage of quantitative research, this paper makes a fundamental analysis of the current situation of debt and economic growth in OECD countries. Both the deficit rate and the resident debt rate exceed the internationally set security limit of 603 percent and 100 percent. Meanwhile, although Japan, the United States, Britain and other countries have large debts, they are even bigger than the protagonists of Europe's debt crisis (Greece). Portugal and other countries, but these countries did not have a debt crisis. The study found that the main difference between the two sides is that countries such as Japan and the United States have focused on the development of the real economy. Greece and other countries focus on welfare creation, which shows that a country should pay attention to the rationality of its economic structure, the development of real economy and the promotion of international economic competitiveness. On the basis of the above research, this paper uses panel data model to make an empirical study on the effectiveness of national debt. The results show that: first, labor contributes the most to economic growth, followed by capital; second, National debt has no significant impact on economic growth, nor does it have a lag effect. Third, in western countries, the impact of what kind of political system on economic growth is not significant, but, Economic growth in euro zone countries is lower than that in non-euro zone countries. In addition, the "induced effect" of government bonds on capital growth, labor growth and investment in scientific research is analyzed. We know that government bonds have an "crowding out effect" on investment, but economic growth is not highly dependent on capital growth compared to labor growth, and even decreases year by year. Therefore, the induced effect of national debt on capital growth has no significant effect on economic growth, while national debt has no significant effect on labor growth and investment in scientific research.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F811.5;F113

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