2014年上半年我国宏观经济与财政政策分析报告——下半年稳增长与新常态下经济合理增速测算

发布时间：2018-03-26 20:12

  本文选题：稳增长　切入点：热钱流出　出处：《经济研究参考》2014年46期

【摘要】：2014年第二季度,发达经济体总体上企稳回升,美联储退出量化宽松(QE3)政策可能在2014年10月正式退出,并可能于2015年二季度前后首次加息。同时,日本与欧洲正在积极采取宽松的政策或措施,稳定经济和国内金融市场。值得注意的是,由于下半年美国经济复苏、美国正式退出量化宽松的货币政策(QE3),我国在下半年可能会面临一定程度的热钱流出压力,国内货币政策应该对此提早做好政策储备。2014年二季度,我国GDP同比增长7.5%,总体来说较之一季度温和改善。随着一系列稳增长措施加强落实、海外经济复苏带动我国出口,我们对全年完成7.5%左右的增长目标有信心。我们预测我国2014年第三、第四季度GDP同比增速分别为7.5%和7.6%,全年GDP同比增速为7.5%。这一预测的核心基准假设为:下半年房地产增速逐渐回落至10%,消费增速稳定在12%,出口名义增速为7.5%,基建投资增速为28%。财政政策应主要从以下三个方面来完成下半年保增长、调结构的总任务:(1)继续扩大地方政府债券自发自还试点范围,保障基建投资财政资金来源;(2)加快建立跨年预算平衡机制,在不增加当年赤字的情况下,将一部分2015年的预算资金在本年度使用;(3)实施消费税改革,降低一些必需消费品的高税率,适度鼓励必需品消费。实现成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"的经济体,具有一个共同的特征,就是能够提供一个具有持续激励,但又具有公开透明的监督机制,从而促使社会纵向流动性加快,避免出现社会阶层的固化。因此,化解经济发展中的种种不平衡,促进社会纵向流动,可能并不在于一时的经济增长得失,而在于如何适应经济增长新常态,如何测算适度的新常态增速,以及在这一稳健增速下进行一系列的制度改革。我们主要从四个方面:(1)潜在增速测算;(2)全面建成小康社会的总体目标;(3)目前经济社会发展环境要求;(4)我国发展中面临的各种约束,测算我国未来经济增长面临的新常态增速。总体而言,我们认为GDP增速的新常态将从目前的7.5%左右,逐步下降到2020年的6.0%~6.5%。
[Abstract]:Developed economies generally recovered in the second quarter of 2014, with the Fed withdrawing QE3 from quantitative easing in October 2014 and possibly raising interest rates for the first time in the second quarter of 2015. Japan and Europe are actively adopting loose policies or measures to stabilize the economy and domestic financial markets. The United States formally withdrew from the monetary policy of quantitative easing. China may face a certain degree of hot money outflow pressure in the second half of the year. Domestic monetary policy should make a good policy reserve for this early. In the second quarter of 2014, China's GDP increased by 7.5% over the same period last year, a modest improvement over the first quarter. With the implementation of a series of steady growth measures, overseas economic recovery has driven China's exports. We are confident that we will achieve a growth target of about 7.5 percent for the whole year. In the fourth quarter, the GDP growth rate was 7.5% and 7.6%, respectively, and the annual GDP growth rate was 7.5%. The core benchmark of this forecast is that the real estate growth rate gradually drops to 10% in the second half of the year, the consumption growth rate stabilizes at 12%, the nominal export growth rate is 7.5%, and the infrastructure investment. The capital growth rate is 28%. The fiscal policy should mainly accomplish the growth in the second half of the year from the following three aspects. The overall task of adjusting the structure is: (1) continue to expand the scope of local government bonds' spontaneous repayment of pilot projects, to ensure the source of financial funds for infrastructure investment. (2) accelerate the establishment of a new year budget balance mechanism, without increasing the current deficit. A portion of the 2015 budget will be used this year to implement a consumption tax reform that will reduce the high tax rates on some essential consumer goods, appropriately encourage the consumption of essential goods, and achieve economies that have successfully crossed the "middle-income trap". Having a common feature of being able to provide an open and transparent supervisory mechanism with continuous incentives, thus facilitating the acceleration of vertical social mobility and avoiding the emergence of social class solidification... To resolve the imbalances in economic development and to promote the vertical flow of society may lie not in the gain or loss of temporary economic growth, but in how to adapt to the new normal of economic growth and how to measure the moderate growth rate of the new normal. And carry out a series of system reforms under this steady growth rate. We mainly measure the potential growth rate from four aspects: 1) the overall goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way is 3) the current economic and social development environment demands 4) the development of our country is in the process of development. The constraints they face, Overall, we believe that the new normal rate of GDP growth will gradually decline from the current 7.5 percent to 6.0 percent in 2020.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院财税研究中心;中国社会科学院经济研究所;
【基金】：《我国宏观经济与财政政策分析》课题 国家社会科学基金重点项目《健全公共财政体系研究》(批准号:10AZD020)的阶段性研究成果,课题组组长:闫坤
【分类号】：F124;F812.0
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本文编号：1669410