产业转移的潜在收益估算——一个劳动力成本视角

发布时间：2018-04-28 12:27

本文选题：倾向得分匹配 + 产业转移　；参考：《经济学(季刊)》2014年01期

【摘要】：改革开放以来,东部地区一直是中西部劳动力跨省迁移的目的地。随着劳动力短缺和工资成本持续上升,劳动密集型产业在东部地区失去比较优势,开始向中西部地区转移。把跨省迁移者与省内迁移者的收入差异视为厂商转移资本的(最大)收益,本文估算了中西部地区跨省迁移者与省内迁移者的收入差异,进而估算东部产业向中西部地区转移时可能的收益空间。尽管跨省迁移者与省内迁移者的收入差异显著,但推算的总收益规模约为805亿—1 573亿元,对引导东部劳动密集型产业向中西部转移来说,这个收益似乎不如原先设想得那么大。这意味着,政府和学术界期待的在地区间实现产业转移的模式,不能单纯依靠市场力量来实现。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the eastern region has been the central and western labor migration destination. With labor shortages and rising wage costs, labor-intensive industries lost their comparative advantage in the east and began to move to the Midwest. Considering the income difference between the inter-provincial migrants and the intra-provincial migrants as the largest profit of the firms' transfer capital, this paper estimates the income difference between the inter-provincial migrants and the intra-provincial migrants in the central and western regions. Then estimate the possible revenue space when the eastern industry transfers to the central and western regions. Although there is a significant difference between the income of the interprovincial migrants and those of the migrants within the province, the total income is estimated to be about 80.5 billion to 57.3 billion yuan, which is helpful to guide the transfer of labor intensive industries from the east to the central and western regions. The profit does not seem to be as large as originally thought. This means that the model of industrial transfer between regions, which the government and academia expect, can not be realized solely by market forces.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所;
【分类号】：F121.3;F249.21;F224

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