基于马儿可夫转换模型下我国国防支出研究及其对经济的影响

发布时间：2018-05-02 22:07

本文选题：国防支出 + 经济增长　；参考：《武汉科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：国防支出是国家公共支出的重要组成部分，是国家财政对国防建设、人民解放军和武装警察部队所需的费用支出，是加强部队建设、实现我国国防现代化的财力保证，在宏观经济中占有重要地位。我国是一个经济高速增长的发展中国家，周边安全环境还很复杂，因此如何合理调配资源,安排国防支出使其既能最大程度的满足国防安全需要又能促进经济建设,是国家最重要的决策之一。深入分析了解我国国防支出情况以及对国防支出与经济增长之间的关系进行研究,对国防政策的制定和统筹规划国防支出具有重要意义。本文着重研究中国国防支出特点及其与经济增长之间的相互关系。首先，利用非线性下的马尔可夫转换模型对我国国防支出波动情况进行系统研究，把我国国防支出增长（包括正增长与负增长）波动的大小分成两类，通过状态转移矩阵研究不同时期的变化率大小，，将不同时期的增长情况与该时期影响国防支出的因素联合分析，考察我国国防支出变动的特点。其次，分别采用三部门模型的推导与分析、协整分析、一个数理模型的分析与模拟等方式研究分析国防支出对经济增长影响，通过理论推导、模型建立、数据模拟、实证分析、相关结论等步骤得出基本结论并以此为依据提出相关意见与建议。进一步，通过本研究，希望相关结论能够为实现国防建设与经济建设的协调发展提供一定的理论依据。
[Abstract]:The national defense expenditure is an important part of the national public expenditure, the expenditure required by the state finance for the national defense construction, the people's Liberation Army and the armed police force, and the financial guarantee for strengthening the army building and realizing the modernization of China's national defense. It plays an important role in the macro economy. China is a developing country with high economic growth, and the surrounding security environment is still very complex. Therefore, how to rationally allocate resources and arrange national defense expenditure can not only meet the needs of national defense security to the greatest extent, but also promote economic construction. Is one of the country's most important decisions. It is of great significance to analyze and understand the situation of national defense expenditure and the relationship between national defense expenditure and economic growth, which is of great significance to the formulation of national defense policy and the overall planning of national defense expenditure. This paper focuses on the characteristics of China's defense expenditure and its relationship with economic growth. Firstly, the fluctuation of defense expenditure (including positive growth and negative growth) is divided into two categories by using the nonlinear Markov transformation model. By studying the rate of change in different periods by using the state transition matrix, this paper analyzes the growth situation in different periods and the factors affecting national defense expenditure in that period, and investigates the characteristics of the changes in national defense expenditure in China. Secondly, this paper studies and analyzes the influence of defense expenditure on economic growth by means of three department model derivation and analysis, cointegration analysis, a mathematical model analysis and simulation, respectively, through theoretical derivation, model establishment, data simulation, empirical analysis, etc. Relevant conclusions and other steps to draw the basic conclusions and based on the relevant comments and suggestions. Further, through this study, we hope that the relevant conclusions can provide some theoretical basis for the coordinated development of national defense construction and economic construction.
【学位授予单位】：武汉科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124;E232;F224

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