中美经济周期的协动性研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 14:38

本文选题：中美经济周期 + 同步性　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：中美经济周期协动性是开放宏观经济学研究的重点问题。通过研究，，一方面可以探究平稳经济周期性波动的方法，另一方面也可以通过制定合理的政策提前预防或降低美国或世界经济波动给中国经济波动带来的负面影响。基于国内外学术界对国际经济周期协动问题的研究成果，本文从理论分析和实证分析两方面对中美经济周期协动问题展开研究。文章主要研究了中美经济周期的同步性，并分别基于贸易和金融传导探究了中美经济周期的协动性。通过对两国经济周期同步性的分析，得出2000-2011年两国经济周期同步性最高；基于贸易传导的研究，本文得出美国从华进口因素对中美经济周期协动程度的作用大于美国对华出口和美国对华FDI的作用；基于金融传导的研究，本文得出美国汇率因素对中美经济周期协动程度的作用大于美国利率、信贷和资本市场因素的作用；对比贸易传导和金融传导，得出贸易传导对中美经济周期协动程度的贡献要明显大于金融传导。最后，本文通过研究，对现阶段中国经济持续稳定增长提出了三方面的政策建议，分别是扩大内需、加强金融监管、加大对外资利用效率。
[Abstract]:The cooperative nature of Chinese and American business cycles is a key issue in open macroeconomics. On the one hand, we can explore the method of stable economic cyclical fluctuation, on the other hand, we can prevent or reduce the negative impact of American or world economic fluctuation on China's economic fluctuation in advance by formulating reasonable policies. Based on the research results of the international business cycle coordination, this paper studies the Sino-American business cycle coordination from two aspects: theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. This paper mainly studies the synchronism of Chinese and American business cycles, and probes into the cooperativeness of Chinese and American business cycles based on trade and financial transmission, respectively. Through the analysis of the synchronism of the two countries' economic cycles, it is concluded that the synchronization of the two economic cycles is the highest from 2000 to 2011; based on the study of trade transmission, This paper concludes that the impact of American import from China on the Sino-American business cycle is greater than that of US exports to China and US FDI to China. This paper concludes that the role of the US exchange rate factor in the Sino-American business cycle coordination is greater than that of the US interest rate, credit and capital market factors. It is concluded that the contribution of trade transmission to the degree of economic cycle coordination between China and the United States is obviously greater than that of financial transmission. Finally, through the research, this paper puts forward three policy suggestions on the sustained and stable growth of China's economy at present, which are to expand domestic demand, strengthen financial supervision and increase the efficiency of foreign capital utilization.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F124.8;F171.2

【引证文献】