我国“十二五”规划节能目标可行性分析

发布时间：2018-05-24 22:40

本文选题：能源强度 + 影响因素　；参考：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：能源是人类赖以生存和发展的重要物质基础,事关中华民族生存发展和人民群众切身利益。随着经济的持续发展和社会的不断进步,能源在国家经济中扮演的角色越来越重要。我国正处于改革和发展的关键时期,国家的工业化和城镇化发展也在不断转型中,随着规模的不断扩大,对能源的消耗也在逐年攀升。近年来我国能源产量屡创新高,特别是煤炭、电力增长速度之快是世界上罕见的。我国煤炭产量从2000年的12.99亿吨增长到2012年的36.6亿吨,年均增长率为8.29%；供电量从2000年的1.14万亿千瓦时,4.94万亿千瓦时,年均增长率为13%。但快速增长的能源供给仍赶不上更快增长的能源消费。2012年,我国全年能源消费总量为36.2亿吨标准煤,同比增长3.9%,是改革开放初期的5倍以上。我国国内生产总值约占世界的8.6%,而能源消费总量占世界的19.3%,中国己成为世界第二大能源消费国。为缓解日趋严重的能源资源紧缺和环境污染的压力,加大节约能源的力度,我国自“十一五”开始,相继出台明确的节能目标要求,节能降耗已被提到前所未有的战略高度。国家在“十二五”规划中也明确提出了节能降耗的总目标,即在2015年全国万元国内生产总值能耗比2010年下降16%。但是已经过去的“十二五”规划的第二年(2012年),中国单位GDP能源消费比2010年仅下降了5.44%,要达到“十二五”规划的目标任重而道远。鉴于以上事实,本文将“十二五”规划节能目标的可行性作为文章的主线,基于能源强度这一指标,首先建立了全国能源强度的影响因素模型,分析了经济发展水平、产业结构、能源价格、能源消费结构、对外开放程度等五种因素对能源强度的影响。其次,建立地区能源强度的影响因素模型,为地区分担节能目标后作政策调整的基础。再次,通过情景分析,预设全国层面各影响因素在2015年的变动范围,并以此讨论“十二五”节能目标的可行性。最后,鉴于全国能源强度的下降是四个地区共同努力达到的,所以本文推导出地区对全国能源强度的贡献度公式,并通过对“十一五”期间四大地区的贡献度测算,预测若要完成“十二五”节能目标,四个地区在“十二五”期间的能源强度下降率和到2015年应达到的能源强度。本文得出以下结论：利用19902012年的数据回归分析了全国能源强度的影响因素,得到结论：产业结构和能源价格对我国能源强度存在负的影响,能源消费结构和对外开放程度会助长能源强度的提升,而经济发展水平对能源强度的作用在所考察时间段内对我国能源强度呈现先负后正的影响,现今已是处于正的影响阶段。利用19992011年的数据回归分析了我国四大地区能源强度的影响因素,得到结论：(1)东部：产业结构和政府支持度对能源强度存在负的影响,经济发展水平会助长能源强度的提升；(2)中部：经济发展水平、产业结构和能源价格对能源强度存在负的影响,对外开放程度对能源强度存在正的影响；(3)西部：经济发展水平、产业结构和产权结构对能源强度存在负的影响；(4)东北地区：经济发展水平、产业结构和对外开放程度对能源强度存在负的影响,产权结构对能源强度存在正的影响。通过情景分析,把2015年我国能源强度的值定为“十二五”规划规定的节能目标(2015年全国能源强度比2010年下降16%,即2015年能源强度不超过0.67971931吨标准煤/万元),预设各影响因素在2015年的合理变动范围,得到了结论：目标是可以实现的。然后,根据“十一五”期间四个地区对全国能源强度下降率的贡献度,预测了2015年完成“十二五”规划关于能源强度下降16%的总目标时,四个地区能源强度的下降率应分别为7.221%、21.895%、24.16%和26.913%,应达到的能源强度分别为0.671864、0.764875、0.901137和0.789044吨标准煤/万元。最后,针对本文的研究结果,提出了相关的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Energy is an important material basis for the survival and development of human beings. It is related to the survival and development of the Chinese nation and the vital interests of the people. With the continuous development of the economy and the continuous progress of the society, the role of energy in the national economy is becoming more and more important. China is in the key period of reform and development, and the industrialization and urbanization of the country. With the continuous expansion of development, with the continuous expansion of scale, the consumption of energy is also rising year by year. In recent years, China's energy output has been innovating high and again, especially coal, the speed of electricity growth is rare in the world. China's coal output has increased from 12.99 billion tons in 2000 to 36.6 million tons in 2012, and the annual growth rate is 8.29%; power supply is 8.29%. From 1 trillion and 140 billion kwh in 2000, 4 trillion and 940 billion kwh, the average annual growth rate is 13%., but the rapid growth of energy supply still can't catch up with the faster growth of energy consumption.2012. The total energy consumption in China is 36.2 million tons of standard coal, up 3.9%, more than 5 times of the first period of reform and opening up. China's gross domestic product is about the world. 8.6% of the total energy consumption accounts for 19.3% of the world's total energy consumption. China has become the second largest energy consumer in the world.
In order to alleviate the increasingly serious shortage of energy resources and the pressure of environmental pollution, and to increase energy saving, China has introduced clear energy saving targets since "11th Five-Year", and the energy saving and consumption reduction has been mentioned above the unprecedented strategic height. In the "12th Five-Year" regulation, the country also explicitly proposed the total goal of energy saving and consumption reduction. In 2015, the energy consumption of national gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 16%. than in 2010, but in the past second years (2012) of the "12th Five-Year" plan, China's unit GDP energy consumption was only 5.44% lower than in 2010, and the goal of "12th Five-Year" planning was a long way to go.
In view of the above facts, this paper takes the feasibility of the "12th Five-Year" energy saving target as the main line of the article. Based on the energy intensity index, this paper first establishes the influence factor model of the national energy intensity, and analyzes the five factors that are economic development level, industrial structure, energy price, energy consumption structure and the degree of opening to the outside world. Secondly, the model of the influence factors of regional energy intensity is set up, and the basis of policy adjustment for Regional Sharing of energy saving targets is set up. Again, through the scenario analysis, we presuppose the change range of the influence factors of the national level in 2015, and discuss the feasibility of the "12th Five-Year" energy saving target. Finally, in view of the national energy intensity The reduction is achieved by the joint efforts of the four regions. Therefore, this paper derives the formula for the contribution of the region to the national energy intensity, and predicts that if the "12th Five-Year" energy saving target is to be completed in the "12th Five-Year", the energy intensity decline rate of the four regions in "12th Five-Year" and 2015 should be reached by calculating the contribution degree of the region to the national energy intensity. Energy intensity.
This paper draws the following conclusions:
Using the data of 19902012 years to regression analysis the influence factors of national energy intensity, it is concluded that industrial structure and energy price have negative influence on energy intensity in China, energy consumption structure and opening degree will increase energy intensity, and the effect of economic development level on energy intensity is in the period of investigation. China's energy intensity presents a negative and positive effect. Now it is in a positive stage.
Using the data of 19992011 years to regression analysis the influence factors of energy intensity in the four major regions of China, it is concluded that (1) Eastern: industrial structure and government support have negative impact on energy intensity, and the level of economic development will increase energy intensity; (2) Central: economic development level, industrial structure and energy price to energy intensity There is a negative impact on the degree of openness, and the degree of opening to the outside world has a positive impact on energy intensity; (3) western: economic development level, industrial structure and property rights structure have negative impact on energy intensity; (4) the northeast region: the level of economic development, industrial structure and the degree of opening to the outside world have negative impact on energy intensity, and the property right structure is strong on the energy intensity. There is a positive effect on the degree.
Through the scenario analysis, the energy intensity of China in 2015 is defined as the energy saving target stipulated in the "12th Five-Year" plan (the national energy intensity in 2015 is 16% lower than that in 2010, that is, the energy intensity in 2015 is not more than 0.67971931 tons of standard coal / 10000 yuan), and the reasonable range of changes in 2015 is preset. The conclusion is that the goal is to be real. Now.
Then, according to the contribution of the four regions to the national energy intensity decline during the "11th Five-Year" period, the total energy intensity decline rate in four regions should be 7.221%, 21.895%, 24.16% and 26.913% respectively, and the energy intensity should be 0.671864,0., respectively, when the total target of the energy intensity decline of 16% in the 12th Five-Year plan is completed in 2015. 764875,0.901137 and 0.789044 tons of standard coal / 10000 yuan.
Finally, according to the results of this study, we put forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124.5

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